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COVID-19 detected in United States (9 Viewers)

Jacob

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Moody, AL
I got to read it but it was taken down immediately after I did

Looks like the account has been deleted, though I read through the thread earlier today. Don’t know about the facts that account claimed to be true, but the account was clearly a fake/not what it claimed to be.

Edit: With the account back, I still believe it is a fake/not what they claim to be, but that isn’t meant to belittle/diminish the effect that COVID is having on the healthcare system in the region
 
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JayF

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I read it too. I get a report from Redstone Arsenal daily and they reported that we were in a 14-day decline. While I understand that COVID affects people differently, I struggle to find what the person was saying credible. The person also provided HIPAA related Information which can get a person in trouble if this was an actual account and they were really telling a partial truth.
 

Jacob

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Moody, AL
Looks like the account has been deleted, though I read through the thread earlier today. Don’t know about the facts that account claimed to be true, but the account was clearly a fake/not what it claimed to be.

Account appears to be back now. Not sure what the deal there is, unless the owner deactivated it for a time.
 

Jacob

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I haven't posted an update in a while, not much has really changed. Midwest and Plains are largely decreasing, while the southern US and parts of the NE are increasing.

I had seen it floated back during the summer that the virus seems to spread rapidly when outdoor temperatures are in the 40-60 degree range. Could partially explain the peak and fall pattern in the northern US (as they got colder than that), while the southern US has just slowly but steadily risen for a few months now, as that is basically our wintertime normal for much of the southern US. I don't know how much credibility that theory has, but for whatever reason the southern US doesn't seem to be "rolling over" after 6-8 weeks like the northern US did.

Hopefully things are stabilizing a bit in northern Alabama. Huntsville Hospital has roughly the same # of inpatients now as they did 3 weeks ago, but I'm not confident that it's anything more than a plateau. Kentucky fell for a week or two, but has seen an increase in hospitalizations over the last 2 weeks, and Tennessee is continuing to rise. I don't expect that northern AL would peak until after KY/TN has peaked.

 

ghost

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I haven't posted an update in a while, not much has really changed. Midwest and Plains are largely decreasing, while the southern US and parts of the NE are increasing.

I had seen it floated back during the summer that the virus seems to spread rapidly when outdoor temperatures are in the 40-60 degree range. Could partially explain the peak and fall pattern in the northern US (as they got colder than that), while the southern US has just slowly but steadily risen for a few months now, as that is basically our wintertime normal for much of the southern US. I don't know how much credibility that theory has, but for whatever reason the southern US doesn't seem to be "rolling over" after 6-8 weeks like the northern US did.

Hopefully things are stabilizing a bit in northern Alabama. Huntsville Hospital has roughly the same # of inpatients now as they did 3 weeks ago, but I'm not confident that it's anything more than a plateau. Kentucky fell for a week or two, but has seen an increase in hospitalizations over the last 2 weeks, and Tennessee is continuing to rise. I don't expect that northern AL would peak until after KY/TN has peaked.

Jacob are there statics available for how many vaccines have been administered in the state?
 

Jacob

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Moody, AL
Thanks.. I hope we get more than the 220,000 allocated

I think that's for the initial round of vaccines, i'd expect more will be available in a couple months.

I wish the state (along with many others) would prioritize age more than occupation, but I don't have a say in that. If the short term goal with the first round is to decrease deaths, we aren't doing a very good job vaccinating those at risk.
 

StormStalker

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Beginning January 18th, Alabama will begin offering the vaccine to people 75 years and older by appointment only. See the ADPH website for more information.
 

Jacob

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Moody, AL
This isn't intended to downplay anything, more just expressing frustrating at the ADPH and the way COVID deaths are reported.

Today, January 12, 2021, a 'record' 139 COVID deaths were reported. 103 of those occurred before Halloween, 63 of which occurred in June/July. If they want to do death certificate matching for money purposes, have at it, but the daily reported deaths should be for the past couple weeks only.

Edit: They apparently reported an additional 87, most of which appear to be recent.
 
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StormStalker

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The ADPH has stopped taking appointments for the vaccine but you can still call and get on a waiting list. That is if you meet the criteria.
 

gangstonc

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I’ve lost an uncle and a friend already. I also have a friend who is on ECMO at UAB. I’m sick and tired of this. I’m sick and tired of people not doing all they can to stop it.
 

Jacob

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*Hopefully* we have hit the peak here in Alabama. Huntsville's numbers have dropped a little bit over the last week or two. UAB's numbers have bounced around, but they have been pretty steady for about 2 weeks now. Tuscaloosa's numbers have been pretty steady for basically all of January. Statewide, the average per hospital decreased over the last few days, and for the first time since late September, the 7 Day Hospitalization Average has decreased slightly the last two days. Tennessee and Mississippi hospitalizations have also declined slightly this week.

Nationally, similar to Alabama, the 7 day hospitalization average declined slightly the last two days, a first since September as well. Many areas in Europe saw a Fall surge, and are now seeing a mid-winter surge, so even if the numbers start falling, it is hard to say what might be up next.
 

Jacob

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Moody, AL
New paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research estimates that the COVID lockdowns and the associated economic impact of them will cause an additional 890,000 deaths over the next 15 years in the US alone.


This doesn't even touch on the fact that the average age lost of those lives would be much lower than the average age of death from COVID. Years of Life Lost and Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALY) from the effect of lockdowns will end up dwarfing the same numbers of those who died from COVID.
 

gangstonc

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New paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research estimates that the COVID lockdowns and the associated economic impact of them will cause an additional 890,000 deaths over the next 15 years in the US alone.


This doesn't even touch on the fact that the average age lost of those lives would be much lower than the average age of death from COVID. Years of Life Lost and Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALY) from the effect of lockdowns will end up dwarfing the same numbers of those who died from COVID.
That’s interesting. I think the cost of herd immunity would be far greater both due to loss of life and economic terms. It’s interesting that everything has a human cost.
 

Jacob

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Moody, AL
That’s interesting. I think the cost of herd immunity would be far greater both due to loss of life and economic terms. It’s interesting that everything has a human cost.

It's hard to quantify. I disagree, but don't feel like either hypothetical can be proved/disproved. I think closing schools and locking down young Americans was a huge mistake, particularly the under 25 crowd where the survival rate is something like 99.995%.

Lets also be real here, there's 2 ends of the lockdown spectrum. There's wide open (pre-COVID), and there's Chinese lockdown (assuming it wasn't all propaganda/theater coming out of China), and what we did was somewhere in the middle. I don't know if it actually cut infections all that much, but it sure has hurt the economy.
 

Jacob

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Moody, AL
It looks like the south has peaked with this current wave. Hospitalizations are currently decreasing in Alabama, Tennessee, Mississippi, Georgia, Kentucky, and Arkansas. They have been steady or might be starting to drop in Louisiana, Florida, and South Carolina.

The big question for the immediate future is if this British variant is actually as contagious as recent reports suggest, and if so, whether we'll start seeing areas in the US reverse the downtrends in the next month or so as it possibly becomes the dominant strain.
 

KoD

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It looks like the south has peaked with this current wave. Hospitalizations are currently decreasing in Alabama, Tennessee, Mississippi, Georgia, Kentucky, and Arkansas. They have been steady or might be starting to drop in Louisiana, Florida, and South Carolina.

The big question for the immediate future is if this British variant is actually as contagious as recent reports suggest, and if so, whether we'll start seeing areas in the US reverse the downtrends in the next month or so as it possibly becomes the dominant strain.
Sounds like good news and coincides with what I've seen at the hospital and the covid clinic. The past few days there has been an extremely noticable drop in visitation for Covid-19 symptoms. Especially on Saturday, the covid section if the ER was 1-2/3rds empty for the majority of the day. Everyone was astounded and very happy after the massive influx we've seen in the past few weeks. I hope that trend continues.
 

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