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Bardarbunga

bjdeming

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Not a surfing cry -- it's one of Iceland's "big guns" and today had an unexpectedly strong seismic swarm as it reinflates after a spectacular 2014-2015 eruption that caused a caldera collapse as well as big lava flows through the Holuhraun fissure system.

It isn't erupting, nor is anything obviously on the way any time soon, but the Icelandic Met Office did issue a couple of aviation notices today as well as an update on their web site.

The situation is complicated (to this layperson, anyway) by some glacial outburst flooding that began this week at nearby Grimsvotn. This complicates things at Bardarbunga because, in the opinion of some volcanologists, in 1996 activity at B. triggered eruption at G.

That hasn't yet been settled AFAIK, but the two "big guns" do sit under the same glacier, and it's best to have an open mind, I guess.

Anyway, here are some links on Bardarbunga and IMO's update today via Google Translate:


A powerful earthquake swarm in Bárðarbunga began this morning. The largest earthquake was M5.1.

About 130 earthquakes have been recorded since this morning. The most powerful earthquake swarm since 2014, when the Holuhraun volcano erupted.​

14.1.2025

Updated January 14 at 4:30 PM


  • After 9 am this morning, the intensity of the tremors decreased significantly.
  • It is unclear whether the surge is fading or will pick up again.
  • The aviation color code for Bárðarbunga remains yellow.
  • The volcano is unusually large and there are many scenarios for possible development.
  • The development of seismic activity will be closely monitored.
After 9 am this morning, the intensity of the earthquake swarm in Bárðarbunga decreased significantly and few earthquakes have been recorded since then. The intensity of the earthquake swarm was considerable. Despite the reduced activity, earthquakes are still being recorded, and further developments will be closely monitored.

The earthquake swarm began just after 6 am this morning and peaked at 8:05 am when the largest earthquake, measuring M5.1, was recorded. In addition, 17 earthquakes above M3 have been recorded, of which two were at or above M4.

Earthquakes will be reviewed and there may be changes in recorded earthquakes and their magnitude. The aviation color code remains yellow, indicating increased activity compared to normal conditions and uncertainty about the development.

Progress unclear​

Despite the reduced activity, it is not possible to say whether the swarm is fading. Many scenarios are possible for the development of earthquakes in the area. The development of seismic activity in Bárðarbunga and possible volcanic eruptions will be closely monitored. Further information will be published as new data is received.
 

bjdeming

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Well, maybe this will be a very short thread, which would be great, but that was a lot of M3's, plus the 5-pointer, so they're probably still watching closely even after lowering the Aviation Code back to Green, and if all stays quiet, perhaps will also do some summer fieldwork when accessibility improves.
 

bjdeming

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Bardarbunga hasn't done anything new, but Benedikt put things in perspective with an mbl.is interview (autotranslated).

Via GT:

The earthquake swarm that occurred in Bárðarbunga on Tuesday last week is considered unusual and such activity has only been seen twice before, in cases that both ended in an eruption.

This is what Benedikt Gunnar Ófeigsson, director of deformation measurements at the Icelandic Meteorological Office, says in an interview with mbl.is (autotranslated).

Via GT:

"So we were just as expecting something more to happen there, but it didn't. But this is clearly telling us that we need to keep a closer eye on Bárðarbunga and can expect it to do something at any time," says Benedikt...
 
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