jiharris0220
Member
Just gonna make this thread about the upcoming severe weather in Florida tonight.
I am admittedly becoming increasingly worried about the threat of tornadoes, as even the SPC aren’t ruling out a couple of strong ones.
SPC AC 300057
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023
Valid 300100Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
Potential for severe thunderstorm development posing a risk for
tornadoes and damaging wind gusts may increase late this evening
through the overnight hours across much of the Florida Peninsula.
...01Z Update...
Although notable spread exists among the various models, surface
cyclogenesis is generally forecast from southeastern Alabama into
the Carolinas tonight. While a trailing cold front may advance
eastward into the Florida Peninsula by late tonight, it appears that
a developing warm frontal zone to the east-northeast of the low may
shift into the Carolina coastal plain. Above the warm sector
boundary-layer, a 50+ kt south-southwesterly 850 mb jet streak
(currently propagating north-northeastward across northern Florida)
may elongate offshore of the Georgia/Carolina coast through the
central/southern Florida Peninsula by 12Z Sunday.
A substantive portion of the northeastern Gulf of Mexico through
southern Georgia/northern Florida and the peninsula has been
stabilized by the remnants of a weakening eastward propagating
convective system, and downstream Atlantic coast sea-breeze
thunderstorm development this afternoon. And potential for
appreciable destabilization overnight remains unclear. However,
various model output does indicate deepening boundary-moisture
within the warm sector by late this evening, and particularly by
late tonight (after 08-09Z) ahead of the cold front, across Gulf
coastal areas near/south of Tampa through the Fort Myers area,
northeastward through the Space Coast vicinity. Coinciding with
increasing forcing for ascent aided by the approaching mid-level
short wave trough, enlarging clockwise-curved low-level hodographs
and strengthening deep-layer shear, it still appears possible that
the environment may become increasingly conducive to organized
convective development, including supercells with the potential to
produce a strong tornado or two.
..Kerr.. 04/30/2023
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0230Z (9:30PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
Here is one hrrr sounding near Orlando…
I am admittedly becoming increasingly worried about the threat of tornadoes, as even the SPC aren’t ruling out a couple of strong ones.
SPC AC 300057
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023
Valid 300100Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
Potential for severe thunderstorm development posing a risk for
tornadoes and damaging wind gusts may increase late this evening
through the overnight hours across much of the Florida Peninsula.
...01Z Update...
Although notable spread exists among the various models, surface
cyclogenesis is generally forecast from southeastern Alabama into
the Carolinas tonight. While a trailing cold front may advance
eastward into the Florida Peninsula by late tonight, it appears that
a developing warm frontal zone to the east-northeast of the low may
shift into the Carolina coastal plain. Above the warm sector
boundary-layer, a 50+ kt south-southwesterly 850 mb jet streak
(currently propagating north-northeastward across northern Florida)
may elongate offshore of the Georgia/Carolina coast through the
central/southern Florida Peninsula by 12Z Sunday.
A substantive portion of the northeastern Gulf of Mexico through
southern Georgia/northern Florida and the peninsula has been
stabilized by the remnants of a weakening eastward propagating
convective system, and downstream Atlantic coast sea-breeze
thunderstorm development this afternoon. And potential for
appreciable destabilization overnight remains unclear. However,
various model output does indicate deepening boundary-moisture
within the warm sector by late this evening, and particularly by
late tonight (after 08-09Z) ahead of the cold front, across Gulf
coastal areas near/south of Tampa through the Fort Myers area,
northeastward through the Space Coast vicinity. Coinciding with
increasing forcing for ascent aided by the approaching mid-level
short wave trough, enlarging clockwise-curved low-level hodographs
and strengthening deep-layer shear, it still appears possible that
the environment may become increasingly conducive to organized
convective development, including supercells with the potential to
produce a strong tornado or two.
..Kerr.. 04/30/2023
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0230Z (9:30PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
Here is one hrrr sounding near Orlando…
