April 20th 2025 severe threat

[Tennie]

Tornado probabilities on that watch are 50/30. Make of that what you will...

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

Where’d the 2000 joules of cape go?

I mean, storms eat cape lol, its how they grow and maintain

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Todd]

Regarding extreme southwest Missouri. It appears the towns of Carl Junction and Lamar got hit. Reports continue to come in from emergency managers. They are using the wording, "possible tornado'.

 

[Kds86z]

Regarding extreme southwest Missouri. It appears the towns of Carl Junction and Lamar got hit. Reports continue to come in from emergency managers. They are using the wording, "possible tornado'.

Yes got some damage reports I just saw .

 

[wx_guy]

Interesting setup today. Definitely great potential if it can be realized.

I did a run of my WRF-ARW model, but I realize it's pretty late in the game. It's nowcast time, I understand. But here's what it shows:


At 5 PM Central, it is picking up on numerous cells (these are the labeled clusters), all with at least a Limited tornado threat. However, a few areas of high tornado and wind potential show up.







At 6 PM CDT, the line is moving strongly eastward and continues to manifest a High Tornado and Wind threat.







By 7 PM CDT, the line is nearing the eastern edge of the window with a strong wind threat and numerous cells with tornado potential (mostly weaker tornadoes, the spin-up variety).




I see the SPC put a 30% wind risk today, so if this model is correct, that wind risk will definitely manifest. Lots of areas where spin-up tornadoes look possible too as the line solidifies.


Of course, this model could be waaaaay off, but yeah.

 

[Kds86z]

……

0 tornado warnings

And fyi, was not saying this is a B***. Just was pointing out that it was dead quiet.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[US_Highway15]

Very surprised to see that it went tornado warned. Does not look that impressive at all.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

I had to step away for several hours since my wife and I were hosting my parents for a joint Easter/Mom's birthday (it's on the 14th) celebration. Looks like thus far things have verified more to the linear end of the spectrum compared to some of the HRRR forecasts.

 

[JPWX]

Got two rotation signatures in Arkansas. As I typed this, the northern one just got warned.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

AR on its way to have more tor warns than any other state, we have 2 at the moment

 

[Tennie]

Got two rotation signatures in Arkansas. As I typed this, the northern one just got warned.

Both of them are under tornado warnings now. Let's see whether they'll produce...

 

[Kds86z]

Both of them are under tornado warnings now. Let's see whether they'll produce...

Did see a bit ago on radar storms looked more broken up in AR…

 

[CheeselandSkies]

That southern warned cell in Arkansas looks like trouble. Could be a threat to the Hot Springs area.

Edit: Now another one further southwest just got warned. They're both still rather far from the KLZK radar.

 

[Tennie]

That southern warned cell in Arkansas looks like trouble. Could be a threat to the Hot Springs area.

Edit: Now another one further southwest just got warned. They're both still rather far from the KLZK radar.

View attachment 40087

The storm west of Hot Springs was upgraded to "tornado reported" based off of broadcast media reports.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

Hot Springs went tor observed, via broadcast media

 

[Kds86z]

The storm west of Hot Springs was upgraded to "tornado reported" based off of broadcast media reports.

Yep.. confirmed now

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

12 counties are under tornado warnings.

 

[Kds86z]

2 new warnings just popped in central Mo