April 2018 Discussion

[WesL]

Looks to be an interesting month ahead.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Looks to be an interesting month ahead.

Yep day 10 euro. Trouble ahead look there

 

[Fred Gossage]

I think that Day 10-12 or so system is a big one to watch. Euro and Canadian, both operational and ensembles, are heavily locking onto the idea. The GFS is struggling as always (it couldn't even get the synoptic trough tilt for March 19th right 6 hours out), but even it throws hints out from time to time. Big systems and pattern changes often get delayed a little compared to when they first show up in the long range model guidance; so, it's no surprise that it looks a couple of days later than it originally did when it first started showing up a week or two ago... but the general idea of this very intense jet energy (125 kt 500mb jet streak) moving onshore in the West into the base of a large scale low amplitude trough has been there very quite a long time now. How amplified the ~144-160 hr trough is will help determine how far south the bigger one around Day 10 is able to dig before the energy ejects out.

 

[ARCC]

I think that Day 10-12 or so system is a big one to watch. Euro and Canadian, both operational and ensembles, are heavily locking onto the idea. The GFS is struggling as always (it couldn't even get the synoptic trough tilt for March 19th right 6 hours out), but even it throws hints out from time to time. Big systems and pattern changes often get delayed a little compared to when they first show up in the long range model guidance; so, it's no surprise that it looks a couple of days later than it originally did when it first started showing up a week or two ago... but the general idea of this very intense jet energy (125 kt 500mb jet streak) moving onshore in the West into the base of a large scale low amplitude trough has been there very quite a long time now. How amplified the ~144-160 hr trough is will help determine how far south the bigger one around Day 10 is able to dig before the energy ejects out.

Yeah, that one may get ugly if the 0z Euro is right. Large deep subtropical ridge already pumping in moisture with widespread 68+DPs over areas over OK/AR. Also showing a very stout widespread EML with CAPE already over 2000 over large area. All which would advect east. As you said with that jet streak and trough, the table is set.

 

[Richardjacks]

I just made the mistake of looking at the 10 day Euro...I feel like I just gave up 10 +/- days of my life to model watching.

 

[ARCC]

I just made the mistake of looking at the 10 day Euro...I feel like I just gave up 10 +/- days of my life to model watching.

You did, absolutely classic multi day large scale severe look there.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Oh boy, all aboard the #hypetrain. I just want it to get above the 40s here. Not going to happen through at least next Monday.

 

[ARCC]

12z EPS.

 

[Kory]

Oh boy, all aboard the #hypetrain. I just want it to get above the 40s here. Not going to happen through at least next Monday.

Hit 85 on campus today. I would gladly take this for the rest but of the month.

 

[Tennie]

I just took a look at the Euro Day 10, and Dear God in Heaven:

A 978 mb low near Sioux City, IA...a 1031 mb high near Boston, MA...and all of this on Friday the 13th! If this verifies...

 

[akt1985]

I’m confused. Is it going to snow or tornadoes at the end of next week in the Tennessee Valley?

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

I’m confused. Is it going to snow or tornadoes at the end of next week in the Tennessee Valley?

lets put it this way... if the 12z euro is on to something, and i think it is... cause this look been there for days now... we have to worry about tornadoes more than we have to worry about snow... promise you

 

[rolltide_130]

I’m confused. Is it going to snow or tornadoes at the end of next week in the Tennessee Valley?

Honestly this whole snow hype is a whole load of nonsense. This has been setting up for a significant severe pattern for the past week.

 

[Kory]

Honestly this whole snow hype is a whole load of nonsense. This has been setting up for a significant severe pattern for the past week.

I have yet to see any reliable guidance show any snow south of I-40. This will probably be an Ohio Valley special with some in higher elevations of TN/NC for this weekend.

 

[ARCC]

I'm not one to hype by any stretch of the imagination, but the 0z Euro is sickening for the 13-14th time frame I seriously have a cold pit in my stomach looking at it.

 

[WesL]

April 4th is #SafePlaceSelfie day! In conjunction with NOAA, NWS and other Weather-Ready Ambassadors, we are using our social media accounts to ask everyone to post a picture of them in their severe weather safe place. If you want to participate just use Twitter or Facebook and be sure to add the #SafePlaceSelfie hashtag (and tag us too @TalkWeatherNow) While you are in your safe place (if you weren't last night) be sure to take a look around and consider re-stocking or creating an emergency supply kit with the essential items you would need after a storm.

 

[WesL]

I'm just going to leave this here....

 

[mbrewer]

I'm not one to hype by any stretch of the imagination, but the 0z Euro is sickening for the 13-14th time frame I seriously have a cold pit in my stomach looking at it.

Today's 12z run is the same.

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf&p=850w&rh=2018040412&fh=216&r=conus&dpdt=

 

[jmills]

This would be potentially historic if it verifies.

 

[KoD]