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April 2018 Discussion (1 Viewer)


Fred Gossage

Member
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
125
Location
Florence, AL
I think that Day 10-12 or so system is a big one to watch. Euro and Canadian, both operational and ensembles, are heavily locking onto the idea. The GFS is struggling as always (it couldn't even get the synoptic trough tilt for March 19th right 6 hours out), but even it throws hints out from time to time. Big systems and pattern changes often get delayed a little compared to when they first show up in the long range model guidance; so, it's no surprise that it looks a couple of days later than it originally did when it first started showing up a week or two ago... but the general idea of this very intense jet energy (125 kt 500mb jet streak) moving onshore in the West into the base of a large scale low amplitude trough has been there very quite a long time now. How amplified the ~144-160 hr trough is will help determine how far south the bigger one around Day 10 is able to dig before the energy ejects out.
 

ARCC

Member
Messages
415
Location
Coosa county
I think that Day 10-12 or so system is a big one to watch. Euro and Canadian, both operational and ensembles, are heavily locking onto the idea. The GFS is struggling as always (it couldn't even get the synoptic trough tilt for March 19th right 6 hours out), but even it throws hints out from time to time. Big systems and pattern changes often get delayed a little compared to when they first show up in the long range model guidance; so, it's no surprise that it looks a couple of days later than it originally did when it first started showing up a week or two ago... but the general idea of this very intense jet energy (125 kt 500mb jet streak) moving onshore in the West into the base of a large scale low amplitude trough has been there very quite a long time now. How amplified the ~144-160 hr trough is will help determine how far south the bigger one around Day 10 is able to dig before the energy ejects out.
Yeah, that one may get ugly if the 0z Euro is right. Large deep subtropical ridge already pumping in moisture with widespread 68+DPs over areas over OK/AR. Also showing a very stout widespread EML with CAPE already over 2000 over large area. All which would advect east. As you said with that jet streak and trough, the table is set.
 
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Tennie

Member
Messages
171
Location
Tennessee
I just took a look at the Euro Day 10, and Dear God in Heaven:

A 978 mb low near Sioux City, IA...a 1031 mb high near Boston, MA...and all of this on Friday the 13th! If this verifies...:eek:
 
Messages
445
Location
jackson tennessee
Special Affiliations
SKYWARN® Volunteer
I’m confused. Is it going to snow or tornadoes at the end of next week in the Tennessee Valley?
lets put it this way... if the 12z euro is on to something, and i think it is... cause this look been there for days now... we have to worry about tornadoes more than we have to worry about snow... promise you
 

Kory

Member
Messages
4,696
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Honestly this whole snow hype is a whole load of nonsense. This has been setting up for a significant severe pattern for the past week.
I have yet to see any reliable guidance show any snow south of I-40. This will probably be an Ohio Valley special with some in higher elevations of TN/NC for this weekend.
 

WesL

Devil's Advocate
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2020 Supporter
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2,632
Location
Fayetteville, AR
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April 4th is #SafePlaceSelfie day! In conjunction with NOAA, NWS and other Weather-Ready Ambassadors, we are using our social media accounts to ask everyone to post a picture of them in their severe weather safe place. If you want to participate just use Twitter or Facebook and be sure to add the #SafePlaceSelfie hashtag (and tag us too @TalkWeatherNow) While you are in your safe place (if you weren't last night) be sure to take a look around and consider re-stocking or creating an emergency supply kit with the essential items you would need after a storm.
 

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