Yeah, that one may get ugly if the 0z Euro is right. Large deep subtropical ridge already pumping in moisture with widespread 68+DPs over areas over OK/AR. Also showing a very stout widespread EML with CAPE already over 2000 over large area. All which would advect east. As you said with that jet streak and trough, the table is set.I think that Day 10-12 or so system is a big one to watch. Euro and Canadian, both operational and ensembles, are heavily locking onto the idea. The GFS is struggling as always (it couldn't even get the synoptic trough tilt for March 19th right 6 hours out), but even it throws hints out from time to time. Big systems and pattern changes often get delayed a little compared to when they first show up in the long range model guidance; so, it's no surprise that it looks a couple of days later than it originally did when it first started showing up a week or two ago... but the general idea of this very intense jet energy (125 kt 500mb jet streak) moving onshore in the West into the base of a large scale low amplitude trough has been there very quite a long time now. How amplified the ~144-160 hr trough is will help determine how far south the bigger one around Day 10 is able to dig before the energy ejects out.
lets put it this way... if the 12z euro is on to something, and i think it is... cause this look been there for days now... we have to worry about tornadoes more than we have to worry about snow... promise youI’m confused. Is it going to snow or tornadoes at the end of next week in the Tennessee Valley?
I have yet to see any reliable guidance show any snow south of I-40. This will probably be an Ohio Valley special with some in higher elevations of TN/NC for this weekend.Honestly this whole snow hype is a whole load of nonsense. This has been setting up for a significant severe pattern for the past week.
Today's 12z run is the same.I'm not one to hype by any stretch of the imagination, but the 0z Euro is sickening for the 13-14th time frame I seriously have a cold pit in my stomach looking at it.