Severe WX April 14-16th, 2023 (Midwest, South)

[Lake Martin EF4]

Another severe threat is shaping together for this coming weekend. Ends the lull we've been having since last Friday.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Another severe threat is shaping together for this coming weekend. Ends the lull we've been having since last Friday.

Johnny on the spot with these threads lol

 

[KevinH]

Johnny on the spot with these threads lol

We’ll see what happens lol

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Pretty high but small supercell composite on the east side of Oklahoma from this system. May have issues with getting robust convection though seems like a strong cap is possibly in place.

 

[JPWX]

How you know this severe threat will ramp up: When MEG says a chance of strong to severe storms on Saturday. With the Gulf running well above normal, it won't take much to get fast moisture return.

 

[JPWX]

Also of note the 14 day average sea surface temperature anomalies in the Gulf from March 27th thru April 9th are the warmest going back to 1982.

 

[cheestaysfly]

Can we expect anything severe up in North Alabama this weekend? My mom is visiting from Missouri. I'm wondering if I'll get to introduce her to my friend's basement.

 

[rushdude]

Man.. was hoping for a whole week of no severe weather. Then D4 outlook shows 15% yellow around Oklahoma and north-central TX.

 

[WesL]

Johnny on the spot with these threads lol

Are you a bot @Lake Martin EF4 ? Keep up the good work!

 

[atrainguy]

Here's a screenshot of the Day 4 risk for reference. Seems to be right on or slightly east of the edge of the Great Plains. Hopefully that's foreshadowing that future action this Spring is going to shift into Tornado Alley, and the generally more populated Dixie Alley region can take a breather. That's basically how it's supposed to work anyways, right? February to April is Dixie, April to June is the Great Plains, with occasional exceptions?

 

[rushdude]

Here's a screenshot of the Day 4 risk for reference. Seems to be right on or slightly east of the edge of the Great Plains. Hopefully that's foreshadowing that future action this Spring is going to shift into Tornado Alley, and the generally more populated Dixie Alley region can take a breather. That's basically how it's supposed to work anyways, right? February to April is Dixie, April to June is the Great Plains, with occasional exceptions?View attachment 19913

I'll take 80-90 degree temps over severe weather here in TX

 

[atrainguy]

I'll take 80-90 degree temps over severe weather here in TX

That's perfectly understandable, obviously it's not optimal to have severe weather anywhere, especially since there are still cities and plenty of people in the central part of the country. I was just saying if it HAS to tornado, it might be the lesser of two evils to have it tornado in the high plains of western Oklahoma/Kansas, or the Panhandle of Texas. Even if the severe weather doesn't pan out, hopefully it still at least rains out there. The drought monitor looks rough.

 

[kcyalater]

Here's a screenshot of the Day 4 risk for reference. Seems to be right on or slightly east of the edge of the Great Plains. Hopefully that's foreshadowing that future action this Spring is going to shift into Tornado Alley, and the generally more populated Dixie Alley region can take a breather. That's basically how it's supposed to work anyways, right? February to April is Dixie, April to June is the Great Plains, with occasional exceptions?View attachment 19913

i think dixie may be done with severe weather until the fall.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

CIPS Saturday, April 15th







CIPS Sunday, April 16th

 

[DetectiveWX]

i think dixie may be done with severe weather until the fall.

Does May 1973, 1995, 2003, 2011, or if you want to go way back, 1840, 1916 and '17, as well as hurricane season ring a bell?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

i think dixie may be done with severe weather until the fall.

Hope so, looking to start my summer vacation early warm temps and no severe

 

[JBishopwx]

i think dixie may be done with severe weather until the fall.

We likely have several MCV/MSC-type severe systems in the summer. We almost always do. On top of an out-of-nowhere strong (EF-2+) tornado touchdown somewhere.

 

[Thanksgivingbrown]

i think dixie may be done with severe weather until the fall.

‍‍‍ way too early to say that. Isn’t this the same dude who called the southern threat of the March 31st April 1st event a bust and then minutes later the LLJ kicked in and tornado warnings started popping left and right?

 

[kcyalater]

i wasn’t saying it WAS done, just that i think it may be. the pattern seems to favor tornado alley and i don’t see a shift in that in any long range modeling just yet.

 

[ColdFront]

‍‍‍ way too early to say that. Isn’t this the same dude who called the southern threat of the March 31st April 1st event a bust and then minutes later the LLJ kicked in and tornado warnings started popping left and right?

No, that wasn’t him lol. That was another poster. And it was 30 minutes into the event.