Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

[kcyalater]

TOR on the board just south of bergman, AR.

that supercell cleared its surroundings FAST.

 

[Ozonelayer]

Guess today's getting started.

 

[klouzek7079]

Crazy amount of lightning with the twarned cell in AR and the cell by Roubidoux MO

 

[Bama Ravens]

Mesoscale Discussion 0355 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Arkansas...western Tennessee...Missouri Bootheel...western Kentucky...far southern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 021751Z - 021945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Observational trends suggest an increasing probability of discrete storms near the Mississippi/Ohio confluence. All severe hazards, including strong/intense tornadoes, would be possible.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite trends show deepening cumulus west-southwest of Memphis into the Missouri Bootheel/western Kentucky. Within continued surface heating, these trends appear likely to continue. This region, ahead of the convective activity to the west, would be very favorable for discrete storm development. Should this occur, all severe hazards, including the potential for strong/intense tornadoes, would be possible. Regional VAD data shows strong low-level shear/hodograph enlargement. With the primary synoptic shortwave and surface low farther northwest, there remain some uncertainties as to when and how many storms will form. Morning observed soundings from the region did have capping inversions evident which could at least slow initiation. Given the environment, a tornado watch is likely this afternoon.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[ColdFront]

It’s really hard to tell without more surface vectors, but you may have a small confluence band where that cumulus field is going up southwest of Memphis

 

[ColdFront]

That storm south of Monticello Arkansas just picked up a cell tag on RadarScope in about 15 minutes

It is very deep in the OWS

 

[Ozonelayer]

That storm south of Monticello Arkansas just picked up a meso on RadarScope in about 15 minutes

It is very deep in the OWS

Considering how deep it is in the warm sector and how discrete it is, that might be one to watch very closely.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Very impressive mesocyclone near yellville Arkansas

 

[UpperLevelLOL]

Healthy velocity couplet on that Houston, MO storm

 

[weunice]

Not that it matters much --- but it is HOT for this time of year here. 86 degrees -- south Louisiana, just east of Baton Rouge -- winds gusting to near 40 mph and tons of energy and broken clouds streaming northward.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Oh things are about to kick off in a big way. Your about to have your third tornado warning now.

 

[TheSuckZone]

Pretty far from radar so not sure

 

[Clancy]

That storm south of Monticello Arkansas just picked up a cell tag on RadarScope in about 15 minutes

It is very deep in the OWS

Also deep in a radar hole. I swear Arkansas and surroundings have some of the worst radar coverage.

 

[Smokedevil]

Wow. Just look at those supercells in Arkansas. Impressive to say the least.

 

[ColdFront]

Also deep in a radar hole. I swear Arkansas and surroundings have some of the worst radar coverage.

It’s Maddening. It’ll take those cells a minute to get it together since they’re displaced from the best shear, so hopefully they’ll be in better radar range when that happens

 

[Tomcats Forever!]

Dew Points in Louisville have been stuck at 60-62 since 1130 this morning despite strong southerly winds.

 

[kcyalater]

tops are already shooting 40k+ on monticello AR super cell. updraft went up in about 30 mins.

 

[Ozonelayer]

Is that a BWER?

 

[UpperLevelLOL]

Sure looks like one