Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

[Smokedevil]

82 here ( Monroe county ms ) with a dp of 69.
Winds are HOWLING.

 

[Bama Ravens]

I wonder when SPC will issue a tornado watch for the high risk area.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

I wonder when SPC will issue a tornado watch for the high risk area.

It does seem to be taking a bizarrely long time, especially since they pulled the high risk trigger on the initial outlook. They haven't even put out a pre-watch MD for the area yet.

Usually high risk setups get going quickly, and the PDS watches are in place by late morning to midday (such as was the case for days like 4/27/11, 3/31/23 among others).

Chalk that up to yet another thing that's strange about today.

 

[Maxis_s]

There's definitely something trying to convect near the LA/AR border. There's a small cap in place and decent T/Td spreads (around 10F it seems) so we'll see whether they mature or not.

 

[US_Highway15]

I much preferred the 14z run that had discrete storm mode over central IN (for chasing purposes of course).

 

[Maxis_s]

Is this a confluence band pictured here? It's slowly moving eastward as well.

 

[Smokedevil]

Up to 83 here now. Strong cap in place.
If they ever pop..........

 

[Parker Copeland]

It does seem to be taking a bizarrely long time, especially since they pulled the high risk trigger on the initial outlook. They haven't even put out a pre-watch MD for the area yet.

Usually high risk setups get going quickly, and the PDS watches are in place by late morning to midday (such as was the case for days like 4/27/11, 3/31/23 among others).

Chalk that up to yet another thing that's strange about today.

environment is in recovery mode for MO but cells already look like they are improving at a good pace, give it a few hrs and issues could arise

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Up to 83 here now. Strong cap in place.
If they ever pop..........

I’m on hwy 78 entering the high risk area southeast of Olive Branch, MS. Partly cloudy skies and 87 degrees. Strong surface winds.

 

[ColdFront]

environment is in recovery mode for MO but cells already look like they are improving at a good pace, give it a few hrs and issues could arise

What cells are you talking about?

 

[ColdFront]

View attachment 38436
Is this a confluence band pictured here? It's slowly moving eastward as well.

Could be outflow from the storms northwest of it

 

[Smokedevil]

I’m on hwy 78 entering the high risk area southeast of Olive Branch, MS. Partly cloudy skies and 87 degrees. Strong surface winds.

That's a great place to chase a few miles to your west. You may be familiar with that area though.

 

[AJS]

Well okay then

View attachment 38429

One right over Western Kentucky.

 

[cincywx]

It does seem to be taking a bizarrely long time, especially since they pulled the high risk trigger on the initial outlook. They haven't even put out a pre-watch MD for the area yet.

Usually high risk setups get going quickly, and the PDS watches are in place by late morning to midday (such as was the case for days like 4/27/11, 3/31/23 among others).

Chalk that up to yet another thing that's strange about today.

I will note that they suggested a late start over a broad period of time in the 13z outlook:

Current expectations are for several intense supercells and clusters
to develop by 20-00Z from far northern LA into eastern AR, northwest
MS, western TN/KY, and southeast MO, and southern IL/IN.

I suspect it will be another 2-3 hours before a watch is issued.

 

[Ledian]

Tornado Watch coming for high risk areas soon

 

[Smokedevil]

84 now. Dp 70. Crazy stuff. Winds are 25 to 30 with gusts of 40+.

 

[cincywx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0355
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 PM CDT WED APR 02 2025

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...WESTERN TENNESSEE...MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL...WESTERN KENTUCKY...FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 021751Z - 021945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST AN INCREASING PROBABILITY OF
DISCRETE STORMS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO CONFLUENCE. ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS, INCLUDING STRONG/INTENSE TORNADOES, WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW DEEPENING CUMULUS
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MEMPHIS INTO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL/WESTERN
KENTUCKY. WITHIN CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING, THESE TRENDS APPEAR
LIKELY TO CONTINUE. THIS REGION, AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO
THE WEST, WOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT.
SHOULD THIS OCCUR, ALL SEVERE HAZARDS, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/INTENSE TORNADOES, WOULD BE POSSIBLE. REGIONAL VAD DATA SHOWS
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/HODOGRAPH ENLARGEMENT. WITH THE PRIMARY
SYNOPTIC SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW FARTHER NORTHWEST, THERE REMAIN
SOME UNCERTAINTIES AS TO WHEN AND HOW MANY STORMS WILL FORM. MORNING
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM THE REGION DID HAVE CAPPING INVERSIONS
EVIDENT WHICH COULD AT LEAST SLOW INITIATION. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT,
A TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.

..WENDT/GUYER.. 04/02/2025

right on cue

 

[JPWX]

I’m on hwy 78 entering the high risk area southeast of Olive Branch, MS. Partly cloudy skies and 87 degrees. Strong surface winds.

Taylor, I've been seeing your spotter signal on GR and said hey I know that guy LOL!

 

[Kds86z]

SPC heard ya..

 

[notsoencrypted]

I will encourage things to happen by going to take a nap. Feels like whenever I do so during an event, that's when things start.