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Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

MMWX (FKA TornadoFan17) said:
I disagree. If the SPC issued categorical risks based on ceiling alone the general
public would have stopped listening to them years ago. I'd argue the floor is more important than the ceiling is for these MDT/HIGH risks.

In my opinion, you cannot issue a HIGH risk and it doesn't verify. It has to verify for people to take the next one seriously.

So far I'm questioning it, but I'm not an expert.
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As sad as this sounds, for a lot of the general public, if a person is not directly impacted then I believe they think the risk was overblown and didn't verify.
 
Brandon said:
As sad as this sounds, for a lot of the general public, if a person is not directly impacted then I believe they think the risk was overblown and didn't verify.
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On 3/14-15, I was telling my coworkers to keep an eye on it, that if everything went the way it looked, then it was going to be dangerous outside. Got laughed at, mocked, and one of my other coworkers messaged another and said, "they always make it sound worse than it really is."

After the death toll and damage reports came in, and the coworker who said that marathon got cancelled, she didn't say anything cross after that.

Unfortunately, as in most things from disease to government to weather, it's never a big deal unless it's in my backyard.
 
MMWX (FKA TornadoFan17) said:
I disagree. If the SPC issued categorical risks based on ceiling alone, the general
public would have stopped listening to them years ago. I'd argue the floor is more important than the ceiling is for these MDT/HIGH risks.

In my opinion, you cannot issue a HIGH risk and then is doesn't verify. It has to verify for people to take the next one seriously.

So far I'm questioning it, but I'm not an expert.
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Exactly. I don’t want people to think I’m criticizing the SPC because not even close to it. We all just know Broyles can be a cowboy and once he gets out that pink sharpie the following shifts can’t walk it back
 
interesting tidbit fmby from the tail end of the recent day1:

Some risk for supercells ahead of the line/clusters will exist across the OH Valley/Midwest. But, confidence in this scenario occurring was not great enough to expand the Moderate Risk for tornadoes northward into more of IN and western OH.
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Models have been on and off with discrete storms making it as far as east as cincy so I'm not ready to bite yet either. While morning convection very often tempers things up here, cincy and extreme SW OH have managed to actually stay clear of the convection currently moving through central/northern OH. The sun has finally broken through here and the clouds are surging northward as I type. Not sure what to make of today quite yet so it'll be interesting to see how things unfold up here.
 
cincywx said:
interesting tidbit fmby from the tail end of the recent day1:



Models have been on and off with discrete storms making it as far as east as cincy so I'm not ready to bite yet either. While morning convection very often tempers things up here, cincy and extreme SW OH have managed to actually stay clear of the convection currently moving through central/northern OH. The sun has finally broken through here and the clouds are surging northward as I type. Not sure what to make of today quite yet so it'll be interesting to see how things unfold up here.
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Whats caught my eye is the amount of clearing starting to take place from east central IL to central IN. Any clearing will help get the kinematics in place. HRRR has been saying that all the ingrediants for tornadoes in our region will be around central to eastern Indiana.1000000916.gif
 
Bulkshear said:
View attachment 38403
Nothing to see here…. sounding from middle TN.
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That's pretty good juice for a place in the SLGT (McMinnville) but then again, I'm not sure the weather really cares about what color we've put on the atmosphere. We're really gonna see if you're right sooner or later, regardless of what the SPC thinks, but I've seen crazy soundings that missed a few ingredients and all I we did was look and say "ain't that neat?" @ColdFront mentioned the helicity swaths, but that might change later anyway-- not that it's the ballgame of whether or not these take off as it is.
 
cg9450 said:
That's pretty good juice for a place in the SLGT (McMinnville) but then again, I'm not sure the weather really cares about what color we've put on the atmosphere. We're really gonna see if you're right sooner or later, regardless of what the SPC thinks, but I've seen crazy soundings that missed a few ingredients and all I we did was look and say "ain't that neat?" @ColdFront mentioned the helicity swaths, but that might change later anyway-- not that it's the ballgame of whether or not these take off as it is.
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I am concerned about the forcing for ascent. That is it. If we get storms firing they will produce in this environment. If there isn’t enough forcing they will be highly scattered in nature
 
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