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Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

With all the attention on today/tomorrow, the remainder of the week looks extremely volatile across much of the southern plains / MS valley in terms of severe. High-end pattern, with at least another 2 or 3 days of significant weather.
 
cincywx said:
I honestly don't know if I have ever seen a Public Severe Weather Outlook for an enhanced risk before. Unusual setups bring out unusual tools, though.
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They’ve done this several times for nocturnal tornado threats but I don’t recall seeing it recently. I do know they’ve done it in the past though.
 
“
Later
tonight, models show richer moisture with a very unstable airmass
being maintained. Of particular note is forcing for ascent
perturbing the airmass from north-central TX into OK near and ahead
of the front. A nocturnal risk for renewed supercell development
capable of all hazards would be strongly favored with any activity
not undercut by the front---mainly during the 08-12 UTC period.”

Can someone break this down for me and where the main hazard would be?
 
Ebaad Jaffery said:
“
Later
tonight, models show richer moisture with a very unstable airmass
being maintained. Of particular note is forcing for ascent
perturbing the airmass from north-central TX into OK near and ahead
of the front. A nocturnal risk for renewed supercell development
capable of all hazards would be strongly favored with any activity
not undercut by the front---mainly during the 08-12 UTC period.”

Can someone break this down for me and where the main hazard would be?
Click to expand...
Means some night time tornadic supercells could fire up @Ebaad Jaffery
 
Honestly this threat is definitely the most concerning for my area since the May 20th, 2019 high risk was issued.

Although even though I felt a little dread I wasn’t going nuts because the hrrr was really the only model going full supercell printer while every other model downtrended to showing no OWS storms.

This time seems different however as every CAM model is now jumping on board consistently showing OWS supercells in a primed environment.

Just hoping none of the updrafts of those supercells goes over my town, 1979 was enough already please and thank you.
 
wx_guy said:
I mean, ENH is really the right move for suuuuper low floor, suuuuuper high ceiling, it's basically an honest *shrug*...but yes, the latest trends to be trending towards the higher end.
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Yep, in the wake of the last few days, it shows where the addition of the Enhanced category really shines. I still remember when we'd get significant outbreaks under Slight Risks. That said, the names are still pretty problematic, but who knows when we'll get around to dealing with that.
 
It's a narrow window from about 5 PM CDT to about 9 PM CDT that the models show have the best environment. I suspect a couple of monster cells. Guess we'll see.
 
Clancy said:
Yep, in the wake of the last few days, it shows where the addition of the Enhanced category really shines. I still remember when we'd get significant outbreaks under Slight Risks. That said, the names are still pretty problematic, but who knows when we'll get around to dealing with that.
Click to expand...
Hell, just do what most local mets have started doing and just go with a "1" to "5" scale. Easy and makes sense.
 
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