Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

[Brice W]

Oh FV3, you never cease to disappoint.
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Remember that EF10 from 2023? It’s back.

 

[Ebaad Jaffery]

Concerning...

It’s a possibility, but again the overmixing of the PBL and tendency to balloon updraft size needs to be taken into account.

The experimental RRFS A model is even more bullish on convection than the FV3 and should probably be treated as a massive outlier.
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Hopefully it is an outlier....

 

[Parker Copeland]

hell yessssss WOFS is running. Will be very nice to see its output.

 

[US_Highway15]

HRRR 14z run not holding back.

 

[TheSuckZone]

 

[US_Highway15]

KFOR's Mike Morgan already sounding the alarm.

 

[Kds86z]

KFOR's Mike Morgan already sounding the alarm.
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Ah good old Mike Morgan..

 

[Muwx]

Ah good old Mike Morgan..

That is actually much more tame than i was expecting from him

 

[Kds86z]

That is actually much more tame than i was expecting from him

Oh does he hype @Muwx ?

 

[DanLarsen34]

That is actually much more tame than i was expecting from him

I was literally just about to write this when I saw that post. I’m surprised given that violent tornadoes are possible with this set-up.

 

[US_Highway15]

Oh does he hype @Muwx ?

I think last time OKC was under a Moderate Risk, he was comparing the day to Moore OK 2013 of some sort. Bro might be on the same level, maybe even more in terms of hype of Reed Timmer.

 

[ColdFront]

KFOR's Mike Morgan already sounding the alarm.
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Did he draw his own risk area with his own outlook categories this time too?

 

[Kds86z]

 

[US_Highway15]

Did he draw his own risk area with his own outlook categories this time too?

Yeah seriously lol

David Payne of News 9 made this outlook hours before SPC dipped the 10% hatched to OKC, but at least he nailed Norman's prediction. My personal opinion, I prefer Payne over Morgan any day of the week, even if both go nuts over tornadoes.

 

[Parker Copeland]

I was literally just about to write this when I saw that post. I’m surprised given that violent tornadoes are possible with this set-up.

the wind profiles in those hodos, if something can exist it is a real possibility

 

[Ebaad Jaffery]

Seems like the threat level for North TX and South OK seems to be increasing. Also, what's it looking like for the mentioned new line of convection late into Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. SPC mentioned that an all-hazard risk does exist for it.

 

[UpperLevelLOL]

CAMS sure seem to be in agreement with discrete supercells firing around the OKC metro, and with dews surging I wonder if there's enough confidence for a mid-day MDT

 

[tornado examiner]

I could picture a Chapman type tornado spinning up if even a single cells fires properly.

 

[andyhb]

I am getting very worried for my place later in NW Norman given several of the 12z CAMs specifically targeting the OKC metro with intense supercells later.

 

[MMWX]

Did he draw his own risk area with his own outlook categories this time too?

No. He's too busy trying to spell corridor. /s