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Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

12Z CAMS are surprisingly tame for Wednesday. A lot of them depict tons of rain and cloud cover hampering destabilization in the northern part of the risk area, but the HRRR suggests there might be a supercell or two on the southern flank of that around midday.

3K NAM is probably the most favorable, depicting a semi-broken line (which by its standards, would probably be supercells) pushing through IL in the afternoon within a potent parameter space.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
12Z CAMS are surprisingly tame for Wednesday. A lot of them depict tons of rain and cloud cover hampering destabilization in the northern part of the risk area, but the HRRR suggests there might be a supercell or two on the southern flank of that around midday.

3K NAM is probably the most favorable, depicting a semi-broken line (which by its standards, would probably be supercells) pushing through IL in the afternoon within a potent parameter space.
Click to expand...
Definitely a more messy setup
 
CheeselandSkies said:
12Z CAMS are surprisingly tame for Wednesday. A lot of them depict tons of rain and cloud cover hampering destabilization in the northern part of the risk area, but the HRRR suggests there might be a supercell or two on the southern flank of that around midday.

3K NAM is probably the most favorable, depicting a semi-broken line (which by its standards, would probably be supercells) pushing through IL in the afternoon within a potent parameter space.
Click to expand...
Thus far only the HRRR shows that messier scenario you’re referring to out of the 12z CAMs. The ARW/NSSL/NAM 3 km/FV3 are all cleaner.
 
Good morning! I've fixed the issue I was having last night (I accidentally modified something with the STP formula, so it was giving low STP, but now it matches the SPC's definition again. By the way, every case I can, I've matched the SPC's definitions from the meso analysis page, in case anyone was wondering!)

So it's a bit dated now (initialized at 18z yesterday), but here's some of the highlights of last night's model run. It is centered on Kansas and Oklahoma and has a 3km resolution and mainly focuses on today's threat.

As you all have seen, I have a plethora of products available to me now, but in the very short term, I definitely prefer the composite radar with the Threat Overlay. I think that conveys the most information quickly. To emphasize that, I have added an optional new overlay on the Threat Potential Overlay that gives a Max Threat profile (the highest of each of the 4 threats on the entire plot) and the Top 3 Cells individual profiles. I hope this gives some insight and is less opaque than just showing "Limited", "Moderate", etc.

So here we go!

Not much is shown on the radar except random showers until 6 PM CDT tonight. The kinematics at play favor the threat *potential* (key word) for stronger tornadoes.

1743518582482.png



7 PM CDT and there's some potential for winds, hail, and strong tornadoes.



1743518667132.png


8 PM CDT and the threat continues.

1743518754023.png


9 PM CDT:

1743519093216.png



Fast forward to 11 PM CDT and a flood threat starts to appear due to rapid rainfall:


1743519150287.png




And at midnight:

1743519195068.png


And at 1 AM CDT (the furthest this model goes out):

1743519234936.png



So I think the 10% hatched ENH is the right move here. There looks to be very isolated storms that form that can tap into the huge parameter space, and those can be definite problems. But overall, the threat (according to this model) is contained within a few hours' window and a small area geographically and is still conditional. So ENH is probably about the highest reasonable categorization. Of course, now we're getting into nowcast mode, so it'll be interesting to see how it evolves.

And that's to say NOTHING about the huge area affected by the threats further east Wednesday - Friday. That'll be my next model run today.

Thanks everyone!
 
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