Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

[jiharris0220]

Needs to be emphasized that some of these models not showing initiation are erroneous in that depiction. They should show initiation, but don't because of issues with their convective/BL schemes. This is particularly relevant regarding the NAM 3 km.

Agreed.

With this being said however.

Some CAMs actually do show convective initiation as far south as my hometown south of the red river.

Me personally, I’m not too keen on that possibility for obvious reasons.

 

[jiharris0220]

For people who want a far more well explained synopsis of what could be in store for tomorrow. Here’s a splendidly done thread by meteorologist Andrew Shearer that shares the same concerns.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

SREF is going ballistic....

 

[AJS]

SREF is going ballistic....

What’s it looking like?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Extremely high EHI Values over night in Oklahoma on the 21z RAP. Almost off the charts....

 

[Kds86z]

Ah good times lol…

What I meant is I have followed these types of plain setups. I was around for greensburg. Literally is boom or B**T. Suspense is high but not very high…

 

[Muwx]

18z MPAS is stunning. Verbatim would probably be a borderline high risk tomorrow in SC/SE kansas and NC/NE Oklahoma.

 

[jiharris0220]

18z MPAS is stunning. Verbatim would probably be a borderline high risk tomorrow in SC/SE kansas and NC/NE Oklahoma.

Could you post it?

 

[US_Highway15]

VERY anxious to see the 00z HRRR run. If its as stunning as all the other models have been in the 18z run, I'd expect a conditional Moderate Risk honestly.

 

[slenker]

18z MPAS is stunning. Verbatim would probably be a borderline high risk tomorrow in SC/SE kansas and NC/NE Oklahoma.

So frustrating to see events like this just before they occur. The fact that either a) absolutely nothing could happen, or b) a high risk worthy setup may unfold is truly despicable. There's no winning with a forecast like this. If you keep an elevated risk in place and nothing happens then its a certified b-word, but if you don't buy there being any supercells and you maintain a lower risk? Then there's obviously a chance everything goes to hell, with many people potentially unaware of the nasty things about to unfold.

 

[Muwx]

Could you post it?

https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/MPAS/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=mpas_physics_dev1_jet&domain=SC&run_time=31+Mar+2025+-+18Z

 

[TheSuckZone]

Could you post it?

 

[Muwx]

View attachment 38050

That is 12z. 18z breaks the cap to nearly Wichita Falls.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

View attachment 38050

Wow!!! That's less than ideal. Considering the enviroment.

 

[TheSuckZone]

That is 12z. 18z breaks the cap to nearly Wichita Falls.

Crap, didn't even pay attention. That would be big problems

 

[UncleJuJu98]

That is 12z. 18z breaks the cap to nearly Wichita Falls.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

Extremely high EHI Values over night in Oklahoma on the 21z RAP. Almost off the charts.... View attachment 38049

I live in south central Kansas and I am sitting right on that.

 

[AJS]

Extremely high EHI Values over night in Oklahoma on the 21z RAP. Almost off the charts.... View attachment 38049

Those are some of the highest EHI values i’ve seen in a while.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

View attachment 38051

run of pure and utter dread. lets have this not happen please.

 

[AJS]

I’m fairly confident we will see a moderate risk issued for tomorrow.