Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

[Bulkshear]

EHI 7 Extreme tornado potential ( Upper Echelon)
Bulk shear 60 kt Long-lived supercells
500mb jet 60-65 kt Strong upper support
Dew point 65°F Sufficient moisture
South wind at surface SW wind at 850mb Strong directional shear
700-500mb lapse rate 7.5°C/km This is Very Steep, enhancing storm strength
CAPE = 2500 J/kg Sufficient Strong instability
850mb SW winds at 60kt Powerful low-level jet (critical for violent tornadoes)
Surface-based LI -8 is absolutely Explosive Instability
0-3 km SRH = 450-500 Outbreak-level tornado potential
Numbers like this could be a generational tornado event if it verifies. These were pulled off the latest GFS

 

[DanLarsen34]

Anywho, 12Z GFS retains a nasty look for Wednesday. A very broad area of moderate to strong destabilization and basically a shield of intense wind at the 850 mb level is going to make big trouble for somebody somewhere Wednesday afternoon. Impressive LRs in the low and mid-levels will contribute to thunderstorm development. Much of the lower MSV and TNV seems ripe, and would wager you might get some discrete development way out ahead of the front itself in MS and AL. We shall see, but this definitely has the look of a setup with the potential to produce some very dangerous weather across a very large area. Practically the entire eastern half of the country needs to keep close tabs on midweek.
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That low level response is definitely something that’s catching my attention on top of all of the other signals here. That’s an anomalous 850 MB response you’d typically look for on higher-end days.

 

[ColdFront]

While not quite as potent-looking as it was yesterday for Alabama, 18Z HRRR still depicts a QLCS which will be nothing to scoff at moving through the morning hours on Monday. Pretty substantial damaging wind threat with the risk for embedded tornadoes, if this were to verify. TN and MS (and up into the Ozarks and Mid-to-Upper MSV) may see more supercellular activity during the late evening and early morning hours, before things look to potentially transition to a more linear appearance.
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is this for tomorrow’s threat? I noticed it had 3-31 on the timing.

 

[Clancy]

is this for tomorrow’s threat? I noticed it had 3-31 on the timing.

Whoops! Wrong thread! I'll move stuff over there. I blame my allergies.

 

[Brice W]

Whoops! Wrong thread! I'll move stuff over there. I blame my allergies.

It is that time of year. I’ve noticed a couple of my coworkers seem to be having allergies.

 

[tornado examiner]

Yeah this event seems way more worrying than tomorrow. If models hold that is. And depending on what cam’s say.

 

[tornado examiner]

And if this holds and doesn’t falter the year’s second high risk is definitely a possibility.

 

[Brice W]

And if this holds and doesn’t falter the year’s second high risk is definitely a possibility.

Yeah time will tell when we get into high res models.

 

[gangstonc]

EHI 7 Extreme tornado potential ( Upper Echelon)
Bulk shear 60 kt Long-lived supercells
500mb jet 60-65 kt Strong upper support
Dew point 65°F Sufficient moisture
South wind at surface SW wind at 850mb Strong directional shear
700-500mb lapse rate 7.5°C/km This is Very Steep, enhancing storm strength
CAPE = 2500 J/kg Sufficient Strong instability
850mb SW winds at 60kt Powerful low-level jet (critical for violent tornadoes)
Surface-based LI -8 is absolutely Explosive Instability
0-3 km SRH = 450-500 Outbreak-level tornado potential
Numbers like this could be a generational tornado event if it verifies. These were pulled off the latest GFS

Location?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I'm wondering how widespread convection actually will be, theres a amazing parameter space but the GFS only has the northwest portion being used.

 

[Bulkshear]

The newest GFS (18z) honestly looks even more ominous than the 12z. This is looking downright nasty. Check it out for yourself!

 

[AJS]

The newest GFS (18z) honestly looks even more ominous than the 12z. This is looking downright nasty. Check it out for yourself!

 

[Tomcats Forever!]

The newest GFS (18z) honestly looks even more ominous than the 12z. This is looking downright nasty. Check it out for yourself!

Is it normal for the heart of the 0-3 km SRH to be displaced like that?

 

[Bulkshear]

Is it normal for the heart of the 0-3 km SRH to be displaced like that?

This is still 5 days out so expect the models to hone in as we get closer to the event. So basically I expect that to rectify itself.

 

[ColdFront]

Is it normal for the heart of the 0-3 km SRH to be displaced like that?

Those sky high values are probably in close proximity to the surface low.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

I really wanna see the D4 when it drops, see what spc says

 

[Clancy]

The newest GFS (18z) honestly looks even more ominous than the 12z. This is looking downright nasty. Check it out for yourself!

I need you to tell the GFS to undo that please and thank you.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Putting up the @Fred Gossage bat signal on this one...

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

Putting up the @Fred Gossage bat signal on this one...

 

[DanLarsen34]

The newest GFS (18z) honestly looks even more ominous than the 12z. This is looking downright nasty. Check it out for yourself!

Taken at face value, that would depict the most significant event by aerial extent that we’ve seen since the March 31, 2023 outbreak.

We’ll see if these trends continue as we close in, but the signals are there right now for an incredibly high-ceiling event.

Just out of curiosity, what are the CIPS analogs pinging right now for comparable events?