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Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

Mundiejc said:
Truth social for liberals basically. The people that ran off from twitter because they can’t handle people who disagree with them just like the truth social people left to get only right wing opinions.
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I post on both and can tell you that the scientific discourse on BlueSky is far better than the garbage that Twitter has become, but this doesn't belong in this thread.
 
andyhb said:
View attachment 37641

While I do agree with you generally, this type of more subtle height change with time + a weak cap tends to favor widespread discrete cells. Also, some of the larger events in history had a filling surface low through the afternoon, it is not always needed to have a deepening low.
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4/3/74 in particular had a filling surface low as the event kicked off, which is something Corfidi noted in his reanalysis.
 
Fortunately (rarely, for me), since it's Saturday I have the luxury of waiting another 36 hours of model runs before deciding whether to take PTO on Thursday to extend my possible chase range (I already have Wednesday off due to scheduling it as a comp day because I'm covering for someone this coming Saturday 4/5, just so happened to work out).
 
Anywho, 12Z GFS retains a nasty look for Wednesday. A very broad area of moderate to strong destabilization and basically a shield of intense wind at the 850 mb level is going to make big trouble for somebody somewhere Wednesday afternoon. Impressive LRs in the low and mid-levels will contribute to thunderstorm development. Much of the lower MSV and TNV seems ripe, and would wager you might get some discrete development way out ahead of the front itself in MS and AL. We shall see, but this definitely has the look of a setup with the potential to produce some very dangerous weather across a very large area. Practically the entire eastern half of the country needs to keep close tabs on midweek.
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Doing a little catching up. One thing that pops out to me is the flooding. I said this before with the 4/15-4/16 sequence. If you’re having flooding, on top of a severe t warning/tornado warning, that will really catch people off guard. I know flooding doesn’t get talked about too to much because tornadoes are such the “oo’s and awe’s” depending on how this system this weekend goes. There is a serious worry for flash flooding.
 
Brice W said:
Doing a little catching up. One thing that pops out to me is the flooding. I said this before with the 4/15-4/16 sequence. If you’re having flooding, on top of a severe t warning/tornado warning, that will really catch people off guard. I know flooding doesn’t get talked about too to much because tornadoes are such the “oo’s and awe’s” depending on how this system this weekend goes. There is a serious worry for flash flooding.
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There are not a lot of things as scary as dealing with major flooding while a tornado outbreak is going on.
 
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