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Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

Bulkshear

Bulkshear

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218
Location
Murfreesboro TN
There is model inconsistency regarding timing however the general consensus of a widespread severe event is evident at this point. All hazards are mentioned! We will need to get through Sundays event first to have a better grasp on this event. However, at this point it makes sense to get this thread going due to the SPC outlining such a large day 6, and the fact we are most likely going to have to jump from Sundays event to this one on Wednesday rather quickly. The large scale pattern suggests a possible nasty solution for quite a large area.
 

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UncleJuJu98 said:
Very impressive EHI Values. Im wondering if there will be any substantial convection to use that parameter space though.View attachment 37507
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I absolutely think there will be…. Look at the first picture I posted at 500mb, the teal color is representing very strong updrafts, in theory with many other parameters in place you don’t want to see that at all. This could mean sustained updrafts so yeah that could spell big trouble
 
Bulkshear said:
I absolutely think there will be…. Look at the first picture I posted at 500mb, the teal color is representing very strong updrafts, in theory with many other parameters in place you don’t want to see that at all. This could mean sustained updrafts so yeah that could spell big trouble
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Im more so talkin about well into the warm sector southeast of the current convection shown, it seems like storms will be in the northwest portion of the higher EHI Values though. Id like to see how this parameter space and convection evolution evolve over the next few days. I definitely don't like how high EHI Values are
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Cips agrees on a impactful event Wednesday.
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UncleJuJu98 said:
View attachment 37510
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UncleJuJu98 said:
Cips agrees on a impactful event Wednesday. View attachment 37510
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Even though we have to get through Sunday’s event, I have a bad feeling about Wednesday storm. This comes from where we stand on TNI readings and the cycles mentioned by prior meteorologists. I think that if there is anything to this theory, this would be THE STORM. I’m very interested to see how things play out after we get through the Sunday storm system.
 
Pretty troubling look at 6 days out. Including an experimental NSSL machine-learning-based product alongside CIPS and CSU's probabilities, which performs fairly well at picking up on threats at the later medium range. Still a lot of things to be shaken out, including spread between globals, but on a broad scale, it looks like a very favorable period.
Day 6/Wednesday, moisture will continue returning northward across
the central U.S., though substantial differences in timing/evolution
of the upper system exists between the (slower) ECMWF and (faster)
GFS. However, the GEFS ensemble mean is slower than the operational
GFS, not quite as slow as but more in line with the ECMWF -- and the
Euro ensemble mean. Given this, confidence is high enough to
proceed with introduction of a broad -- though areally uncertain --
15% area. This system would appear to have the potential to produce
another fairly widespread/all-hazards severe event, but will likely
require a good bit of adjustment over the next few days.
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1743170896114.png
1743170902114.png1743170932142.png1743171120801.png1743171127158.png
 
Bulkshear said:
Even though we have to get through Sunday’s event, I have a bad feeling about Wednesday storm. This comes from where we stand on TNI readings and the cycles mentioned by prior meteorologists. I think that if there is anything to this theory, this would be THE STORM. I’m very interested to see how things play out after we get through the Sunday storm system.
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Just wondering, what makes you so sure about this? I thought they said that the waves cycle every 30-40 days, so the next super favorable wave that was around for the 14-15th outbreak wouldn't be back until the latter half of April.
 
KCweatherboy said:
Just wondering, what makes you so sure about this? I thought they said that the waves cycle every 30-40 days, so the next super favorable wave that was around for the 14-15th outbreak wouldn't be back until the latter half of April.
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This is what I’ve been seeing from Mets as well. Unfortunately we may very well be still at the appetizer portion of the spring menu.
 
KCweatherboy said:
Just wondering, what makes you so sure about this? I thought they said that the waves cycle every 30-40 days, so the next super favorable wave that was around for the 14-15th outbreak wouldn't be back until the latter half of April.
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That specific wave signature you are referring to is associated with “upper echelon” Events. If you take a look at Matt’s post from the other day, an “incoherent signal” which is the phase we are currently in, can still produce a gruesome outbreak. As that is what we were in during the 4/14-4/16 2011 outbreak sequence.

You can still have severe weather outbreaks outside of that TNI/background signal.
 
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KCweatherboy said:
Just wondering, what makes you so sure about this? I thought they said that the waves cycle every 30-40 days, so the next super favorable wave that was around for the 14-15th outbreak wouldn't be back until the latter half of April.
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Yes it is supposed to be every 30 days +or-. However, I do remember one of the Mets on here mentioned it could be more like 3 weeks or so which could put it on this storm. It would be 18-19 days following the 15th storm. I also looked forward at the models for later in the month and I noticed a drastic pattern shift which wouldn’t be favorable for severe weather. The similarities from past years that had awful outbreaks that were also related to ENSO like this year is uncanny. I am not necessarily saying this is a slam dunk by any means however I do feel based upon projected weather patterns for the latter half of April if there is any merit to this correlation, I personally think it is this storm that we need to watch. If any Mets have input I would love to hear it because they are the professionals!
 
Matt Grantham said:
We're entering a period of a split/incoherent MJO. Approximately 3 to 4 weeks after these split MJO signatures in March 1974, January 2008, and early April 2011, all hell broke loose. The timing and placement of the next MJO consolidation/amplification will have major implications on the outlook for April. Right now there is nothing evident. Without a clear signal, I'm expecting low predictability of the upper-air pattern within the 384 hour model window for the next week or two. The extended ECMWF MJO forecast on the phase diagram is quite similar to the March/April 2011 progression. So we'll keep an eye on that.

This is the discussion I was referencing. What I recalled was 3-4 weeks all hell broke loose. Unless the models are being wonky the later part of April doesn’t support what you would want to see for a significant severe weather outbreak.
 
Bulkshear said:
Matt Grantham said:
We're entering a period of a split/incoherent MJO. Approximately 3 to 4 weeks after these split MJO signatures in March 1974, January 2008, and early April 2011, all hell broke loose. The timing and placement of the next MJO consolidation/amplification will have major implications on the outlook for April. Right now there is nothing evident. Without a clear signal, I'm expecting low predictability of the upper-air pattern within the 384 hour model window for the next week or two. The extended ECMWF MJO forecast on the phase diagram is quite similar to the March/April 2011 progression. So we'll keep an eye on that.

This is the discussion I was referencing. What I recalled was 3-4 weeks all hell broke loose. Unless the models are being wonky the later part of April doesn’t support what you would want to see for a significant severe weather outbreak.
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Yes, this is also what I'm referencing as well. If we're in a split/incoherent MJO right now, then I don't think this could be "THE STORM" as you mentioned, but it certainly could still be a significant event. Unless I'm not correctly interpreting what Matt is referring to, he says "I'm expecting low predictability of the upper-air pattern with the 384 hour model window for the next week or two" and that was posted on Saturday. I think given that statement, 3-4 weeks later when all hell COULD break loose would be the end of April and we wouldn't be able to see that on the models yet. Also, it'd be perfectly reasonable for there to be a slight break in the action after these early April systems (based on current models I'm thinking after 4/8-4/9) while the background pattern is in a state of flux preventing everything from being "good to go" for severe weather.

ColdFront said:
That specific wave signature you are referring to is associated with “upper echelon” Events. If you take a look at Matt’s post from the other day, an “incoherent signal” which is the phase we are currently in, can still produce a gruesome outbreak. As that is what we were in during the 4/14-4/16 2011 outbreak sequence.

You can still have severe weather outbreaks outside of that TNI/background signal.
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I'm aware of that as we just had an event with that wave signature that could be considered an "upper echelon" event. I'm not saying there can't be a bad event outside of that pattern, I just don't think this is going to be "THE STORM" as Bulkshear mentioned. This still looks like it could be a significant event, however. IF we get another event of "upper echelon" caliber, I'd expect it to be in late April after the split/incoherent signal resolves itself and the MJO cycle repeats.
 
KCweatherboy said:
Yes, this is also what I'm referencing as well. If we're in a split/incoherent MJO right now, then I don't think this could be "THE STORM" as you mentioned, but it certainly could still be a significant event. Unless I'm not correctly interpreting what Matt is referring to, he says "I'm expecting low predictability of the upper-air pattern with the 384 hour model window for the next week or two" and that was posted on Saturday. I think given that statement, 3-4 weeks later when all hell COULD break loose would be the end of April and we wouldn't be able to see that on the models yet. Also, it'd be perfectly reasonable for there to be a slight break in the action after these early April systems (based on current models I'm thinking after 4/8-4/9) while the background pattern is in a state of flux preventing everything from being "good to go" for severe weather.


I'm aware of that as we just had an event with that wave signature that could be considered an "upper echelon" event. I'm not saying there can't be a bad event outside of that pattern, I just don't think this is going to be "THE STORM" as Bulkshear mentioned. This still looks like it could be a significant event, however. IF we get another event of "upper echelon" caliber, I'd expect it to be in late April after the split/incoherent signal resolves itself and the MJO cycle repeats.
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Forecasts suggest that the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) will be in phases 3 and 4 during early April 2025. The Climate Prediction Center’s recent update indicates that ensemble models show the MJO continuing its eastward progression through early April. The most significant impact tends to occur when the MJO is in phases 3 and 4, which coincide with a more active severe weather season in the central and southern US. So based off this I maintain my position that this could be THE STORM. We shall see
 
Bulkshear said:
Forecasts suggest that the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) will be in phases 3 and 4 during early April 2025. The Climate Prediction Center’s recent update indicates that ensemble models show the MJO continuing its eastward progression through early April. The most significant impact tends to occur when the MJO is in phases 3 and 4, which coincide with a more active severe weather season in the central and southern US. So based off this I maintain my position that this could be THE STORM. We shall see
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I don’t think we will know if any event is “THE STORM” until it’s over. Especially after last event had a very high ceiling.
 
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