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Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

Bulkshear said:
How do you feel about the rogue cells popping out in front in MS, AL, and TN?
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I would tend to think that's a rather low probability, but there could be a cell or two. The influence of the ridge to the SE makes me think most of the storms will be closer to the jet core though.
 
I know everyone’s most concerned about the Ohio River/Mississippi region, and rightfully so. But what are thoughts about Michigan’s risk? I’m on the edge of the enhanced risk on the spc map. I’m specifically wondering about supercell/tornado risks?
 
andyhb said:
View attachment 38081

All of these cells are in SRH of 400-500 m2/s2 or greater.
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Adding on to Andy's post, this is the Updraft Helicity Chart:

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This is as far as it goes. My goodness. I know this isn't what is exactly going to happen, but this still makes my heart drop nonetheless, considering the long swath in NE Indiana is right by my vicinity.
 
Well that's just unreal. A really and truly impressive parameter space across a huge area. Fingers and toes crossed that as few storms as possible take advantage of the volatile environment that will be in place on Wednesday afternoon into evening.

1743476828492.png1743476832517.png1743476836035.png1743476847361.png
 
I would go ENH for tomorrow initially and reserve the right to upgrade to MDT at 1630z/20z, if confidence is there. For Wednesday, I would maintain the ENH and punt to 1730z for an upgrade. Too many questions to go all in on upper echelon risk categories just yet for Wednesday, IMO. I'm also more conservative as a forecaster.

And don't get me wrong, the parameter space is remarkable for Wednesday on some of the HiRes models.
 
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NorthGaWeather said:
I would go ENH for tomorrow initially and reserve the right to upgrade to MDT at 1630z/20z, if confidence is there. For Wednesday, I would maintain the ENH and punt to 1730z for an upgrade. Too many questions to go all in on upper echelon risk categories just yet for Wednesday, IMO. I'm also more conservative as a forecaster.
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I don't disagree (regarding Wednesday). Could go either way. Won't be surprised if they go MDT, but won't be surprised if they don't.
 
NorthGaWeather said:
I would go ENH for tomorrow initially and reserve the right to upgrade to MDT at 1630z/20z, if confidence is there. For Wednesday, I would maintain the ENH and punt to 1730z for an upgrade. Too many questions to go all in on upper echelon risk categories just yet for Wednesday, IMO. I'm also more conservative as a forecaster.
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Conservative is good imho @NorthGaWeather
 
I think you have to go MDT for the Lower OH Valley/Mid MS Valley on Wednesday, too many models now suggesting multiple supercells in that area.
 
NorthGaWeather said:
I would go ENH for tomorrow initially and reserve the right to upgrade to MDT at 1630z/20z, if confidence is there. For Wednesday, I would maintain the ENH and punt to 1730z for an upgrade. Too many questions to go all in on upper echelon risk categories just yet for Wednesday, IMO. I'm also more conservative as a forecaster.
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I would have a pretty hard time seeing them keep ENH for D2 Wednesday after these runs (not saying this was a major uptrend or homerun, but it was at least somewhat of one). But the mid-day CSU props for Wednesday's TOR chances was at the same as it was for D1 March 15th (aside from the tiny 2 county sized .3-.45 prop that existed) which was a High. So I would doubt we get a decrease in CSU TOR props now. And CSU props are about the best correlation for SPC outlooks that exists.
 
andyhb said:
I think you have to go MDT for the Lower OH Valley/Mid MS Valley on Wednesday, too many models now suggesting multiple supercells in that area.
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I don't know who is doing the 6z (too lazy to look), but if they went MDT I would understand the reasoning. I would just punt until 1730z, as there is no harm in ingesting the 12z data tomorrow. But if the HiRes runs tonight are close to reality, then a MDT may not be as high as we go.
 
OhOkayThen said:
I would have a pretty hard time seeing them keep ENH for D2 Wednesday after these runs (not saying this was a major uptrend or homerun, but it was at least somewhat of one). But the mid-day CSU props for Wednesday's TOR chances was at the same as it was for D1 March 15th (aside from the tiny 2 county sized .3-.45 prop that existed) which was a High. So I would doubt we get a decrease in CSU TOR props now. And CSU props are about the best correlation for SPC outlooks that exists.
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What your opinion on west Tennessee. For Wednesday, I can get good feel …
 
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