7.8 earthquake on Southern Turkey/ Syria Border

[WesL]

Extensive damage is expected






Also felt in Israel and Lebanon

 

[WesL]

@bjdeming ever hear of this guy who "called" this quake on Feb 3?

 

[bjdeming]

Nope. Whoever he is, at least he was careful enough to hedge -- that's a very powerful tectonic zone, so he couldn't be wrong, but he wasn't at all helpful, either.

When? How big? Where (depth as well as surface coordinates)?

That's the "Holy Grail" for seismologists, I think, and the first two for volcanologists, too.

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

"Rock the Casbah" indeed.....

 

[WesL]

"Rock the Casbah" indeed.....

 

[warneagle]

This is going to end up being really bad I'm afraid. An earthquake that big, that shallow, in a part of the world where there's a lot of old construction that's not going to be resilient against earthquakes, between three cities with populations of 2M+ people (Adana, Gaziantep, and Aleppo).

 

[Tennie]

This is going to end up being really bad I'm afraid. An earthquake that big, that shallow, in a part of the world where there's a lot of old construction that's not going to be resilient against earthquakes, between three cities with populations of 2M+ people (Adana, Gaziantep, and Aleppo).

And let's not forget the fact that at least a decent amount of the infrastructure on the Syrian side of the border has already been notably damaged by about a dozen years' worth of civil war (which itself doesn't seem to be ending anytime soon)...

 

[Jacob]

There’s also been a 7.5 aftershock, a 6.7, and a 6.0 as well. Terrible situation over there

 

[TH2002]

Structural collapses were still being reported as of three hours ago; proof that just because the mainshock is over, that does NOT mean the danger is over. Last I heard the death toll has also surpassed 2,000 and will probably continue to rise... my heart is with these people and they have a long road to recovery.

And while this is nothing compared to the disaster in Turkey and Syria, meanwhile in Buffalo...

Strongest earthquake in 40 years startles Western New York

An earthquake was felt in much of WNY around 6:15 a.m. on Monday.

www.wgrz.com

 

[bjdeming]

Buffalo is having "interesting times," for sure, between that and all the lake-effect snow this winter.

What has moved me the most thus far about the quake description and coverage is the USGS adding, after setting the PAGER at Red, their personal statement afterwards.

They seldom do that.

As I've read in various papers, there hasn't been a huge mass-casualty earth science event since 1985 (Armero, in Columbia), and this Middle East disaster could reach or surpass those 20,000-plus deaths.

 

[warneagle]

This thing caused buildings to collapse in Diyarbakir, which is almost 200 miles away. This is basically the worst-case scenario: strong, shallow quake in an area without strong enough engineering to withstand it. Reminds me of the 1977 earthquake in Romania and the 1988 earthquake in Armenia in that respect.

 

[OHWX97]

A city of a million in ruins...

 

[Sawmaster]

Multiple sources stating deaths are around 8000 so far. Incredible levels of destruction shown in pics and vids.

 

[thundersnow]

Could be the worst humanitarian natural disaster since Haiti 2010 or one of the tsunamis.

 

[Sawmaster]

Now at 11,500

It's winter and there will be no power, water, or gas for heating. Catastrophic by anyone's definition

 

[warneagle]

The death toll is over 19,000 now, surpassing the death toll from the 1999 Ismit earthquake, which had previously been the deadliest earthquake in modern Turkish history.

 

[Tennie]

Here's a good article that I found that's about the earthquakes and the general context of the affected region:

The 2023 Turkey–Syria Earthquake

A guest post by our very own media master, Nick Small: A historic earthquake in Anatolia As you will all know, an M7.8 earthquake caused massive devastation across Southern Turkiye and Northern Syr…

www.volcanocafe.org

 

[WesL]

Woah check this out from Turkey - Don't think I've ever seen a shift like that.

 

[Tennie]

Earlier I posted a link to an article that placed these earthquakes in the context of the region's human history. Here's an article placing them in the context of the region's geologic/tectonic history:

The East Anatolian Fault

The southern shores of Europe have seen their share of geological conflict. Africa is moving north, and Europe is in the way. There have been many skirmishes, which have left scars in southern Euro…

www.volcanocafe.org

 

[bjdeming]

Thanks for posting these, Tennie. It's a very complicated region, but the folks at Volcano Cafe are excellent resources.

Since I follow some seismologists on Twitter, I did have a go at trying to understand the quake, but it appears to have unfolded in a very complex fashion.

For instance:



This Cornell seismologist is very good at public outreach and is sharing a lot of interesting information in plain English.

In case the link mentioned didn't carry over, here is the 3D model of quake progression in the M7.8 and M7.5 sequences.

Another example, from a Cal Poly Pomona seismologist:



From a science standpoint, I just don't know what to say about this massive event. But one message comes through from all sources: the earthquake was inevitable; the scale of the damage was not.

Geologically, it's apples and oranges, but here's an example of the opposite end of the preparedness spectrum -- what a nearby earthquake more than an order of magnitude larger felt like on the upper floors of a Tokyo skyscraper in 2011:



Well, guess you can watch it on YouTube. It's amazing: everybody is scared, but after the primary waves come through, little is changed and one guy at his desk reflexively sips his coffee. Then the waves come again.

Even less costly/technical preparedness somewhere near the middle of that spectrum could have saved so many lives in Turkey this year.