5/5-5-6 2026 severe threat

[UncleJuJu98]

In my personal opinion I think by the next spc update for Wednesday a extension northward of the 10% risk will happen in Mississippi and Alabama.

Also here's a updated risk graphic from bham

NWS Birmingham, Alabama

 

[Clancy]

In my personal opinion I think by the next spc update for Wednesday a extension northward of the 10% risk will happen in Mississippi and Alabama.

Also here's a updated risk graphic from bham

NWS Birmingham, Alabama

Northward extension makes sense to me. Maximum threat axis is basically between Huntsville and Montgomery latitudinally.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

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Northward extension makes sense to me. Maximum threat axis is basically between Huntsville and Montgomery latitudinally.

I also believe a cig2 corridor for tornadoes will be introduced, if not in the next update, there will be one prior to the event unfolding.

 

[bckhd2]

I would think there’s still too much uncertainty to introduce a CIG2 area

 

[slenker]

I also believe a cig2 corridor for tornadoes will be introduced, if not in the next update, there will be one prior to the event unfolding.

Wouldn’t this require an STP of at least 4?

 

[JPWX]

I was fixing to add that the Enhanced Risk and 10% tor will likely be expanded northward, but @UncleJuJu98 beat me to it.

 

[bckhd2]

Wouldn’t this require an STP of at least 4?

The NAM earlier today was showing some areas around ATL getting close to an STP of 4. I wouldn’t be surprised if some models were popping >4 in areas of AL/MS. But, I still think the threat is too conditional and uncertain at this point for them to feel comfortable upgrading to CIG2.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Wouldn’t this require an STP of at least 4?

I think the hrrr and nam surpass that along i20

Nam is stp of 5-6 along i20

Hrrr hits pockets of 7-8

 

[Kds86z]

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

I'm in the hot seat tomorrow. Personally, the setup doesn't look greatly ideal and I think with such a saturated moist layer, overconvection is close to a guaranteed tmrw in the OWS. I can see a isolated robust cell or two getting going but I still don't think even then that low level shear is too remotely great where discrete storms shall actually fire. SPC knows best though of course but a untapped environment is essentially useless without storms, and at that, junkvection sapping instability to the limit too. We will see. Morning runs may change my mind.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Looks like the nascent cell they referenced in the MD died off instead of deepening further.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Looks like a Storm forming northeast of fort Smith Arkansas.

Yep looks like it's go time.

 

[Clancy]

I'm in the hot seat tomorrow. Personally, the setup doesn't look greatly ideal and I think with such a saturated moist layer, overconvection is close to a guaranteed tmrw in the OWS. I can see a isolated robust cell or two getting going but I still don't think even then that low level shear is too remotely great where discrete storms shall actually fire. SPC knows best though of course but a untapped environment is essentially useless without storms, and at that, junkvection sapping instability to the limit too. We will see. Morning runs may change my mind.

I'm much less worried about overconvection than I am underconvection as far as failure modes go. Events in the Southeastern US have a knack for maximizing results even with paltry lapse rates, oversaturated moist layers and modest forcing. On the other hand, there's been plenty of events that critically underperformed because storms didn't fire in a significant way at all. Some prime examples that come to mind are April 2017 and last week's setup. It's no major outbreak material, but I don't think it's anything to sneeze at, either. Even without any discrete OWS convection, the QLCS will cause plenty of straight-line wind problems. GFS, NAM and HRRR have uptrended the strength of the LLJ Wednesday evening over the past few runs by a significant degree, and boundaries tend to be pivotal points of focus in QLCS setups, which there will be plenty of opportunities for tomorrow. At the same time, there's definitely a difference between being in the bullseye versus chasing or watching from home - how we view threat magnitudes and impacts will inevitably vary depending on where we are relative to our convective focus. A point of concern for me, as I think @bckhd2 has mentioned, is our neck of the woods being less experienced with severe weather overall, especially compared to Alabama, and the level of complacency that happens here, especially with it being early May, a time when a lot of people are focused on graduation, sports and outdoor events.

 

[Muwx]

Arkansas rarely does anything of note when it’s been cloudy all day. I’ll be very surprised if we get strong tornadoes today.

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

It's kind of become a running joke in his comments sections this year how often SPC has done a categorical upgrade right after Trey releases his forecast discussion video for that day.

Oh interesting

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Tornado watch out, few tornadoes likely with a couple intense possible.

 

[akt1985]

There is a chance that tomorrow is mostly a heavy rain threat for areas north of the Tennessee River.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

The mythical horseshoe crab will be making its way to dixie tommrow.

 

[JPWX]

Let's chat a little about this supposed QLCS on Wednesday. The only legit formation of one on both the HRRR/RRFS is AFTER it moves past Birmingham. Otherwise, you have clusters of storms. Plus consider this too. Every forecast model has dewpoints near 70 and also it's May. This means instability WILL NOT be lacking whatsoever.