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5/5-5-6 2026 severe threat

New day 3:


..SOUTHERN PLAINS/MID-SOUTH

THE SURFACE LOW/TRIPLE POINT AND THE COLD FRONT WILL GENERALLY BE
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AROUND LATE AFTERNOON.
WHILE FRONT WILL HAVE MODEST SOUTHWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY, IT
DOES APPEAR THAT LINEAR MODES ARE MORE LIKELY WITHIN THE MID-SOUTH
REGION. FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS, SHEAR VECTORS
WILL HAVE A MORE FAVORABLE ORIENTATION TO THE SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE
AND DISCRETE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER
SOUTH. LARGE HAIL, SEVERE WINDS, AND TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE
EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE BEFORE A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT OCCURS WITH UPSCALE GROWTH. THE LATEST NAM
OUTPUT HAS COME IN NOTABLY COOLER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE ON ACCOUNT OF
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND FASTER FRONT PROGRESSION. A MINOR
SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES WAS MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR
LESSER DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT.

 
This is one heck of a conditional call. But if a mature supercell tomorrow can tap into the 50 kt LLJ around Western TN if it is not totally elevated and can break through the stable layer, a strong tornado threat may exist. Wind profiles are very impressive tmrw night and some CAMs still have a isolated supercell roaming around this corridor.
 
Confidence continuing to build for Wednesday. SPC hints at significant severe potential, with possibility for introduction of CIG gradients in upcoming outlooks.
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS
INTO PARTS OF ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday
afternoon and evening across portions of Texas into the Lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Damaging winds, large hail, and a
couple of tornadoes will be possible.

...Texas to the Lower MS and TN Valleys...

A midlevel shortwave trough will migrate from the central/southern
Rockies to the southern Plains on Wednesday. Strong southwesterly
deep-layer flow will overspread the southern Plains into much of the
southern and eastern U.S. ahead of this feature. At the surface, a
cold front will extend from the upper OH Valley southwestward to
southern AR Wednesday morning, with the western extent of the front
sloped across northeast to southwest TX. Ahead of the front, rich
Gulf moisture will be in place with dewpoints generally in the mid
60s to near 70 across TX into the Lower MS Valley, decreasing with
northeast extent. This will support a corridor of moderate
destabilization ahead of the front from parts of TX into MS where
MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg is possible. Instability will be
somewhat less with northeast extent across the TN Valley.

Storm mode is somewhat uncertain Wednesday afternoon. If discrete
cells can develop, steep lapse rates, favorable thermodynamic,
elongated/straight hodographs and 45+ kt effective shear magnitudes
suggest supercells with an all-hazards risk will be possible.
However, given deep layer flow parallel to the surface front and a
southward progressing front, convection may tend to become linear
quickly. This would increase damaging wind potential. Given
uncertainty in storm mode, declined introducing a CIG 1 area for
hail. In general, convection should develop during the afternoon and
spread east/southeast with time through the overnight hours, with an
accompany severe risk.

..Leitman.. 05/04/2026
Click to expand...
woTPuYG.png
mpPLXqE.png
Y7dg93Y.png
b2tKYF9.png
 
I think tomorrow may surprise people. I'm not seeing a lot of talk about the potential for discrete cells to tap into this LLJ after dark, and even before this in NE AR, shear is around 250+. Of course, storms would need to be surface based so i think it comes down to even morning convection for tomorrow. Strong tornado threat is becoming a better likelihood with this one.

Wednesday in my opinion will be fairly mixed in terms of convection. I think in your main risk area, you will be able to salvage a more discrete mode capable of all hazards. But globals can tend to underdo kinematics as seen with this event tomorrow which I have eyes on a lot now, so don't call off Wednesday as being run of the mill yet.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
I think tomorrow may surprise people. I'm not seeing a lot of talk about the potential for discrete cells to tap into this LLJ after dark, and even before this in NE AR, shear is around 250+. Of course, storms would need to be surface based so i think it comes down to even morning convection for tomorrow. Strong tornado threat is becoming a better likelihood with this one.

Wednesday in my opinion will be fairly mixed in terms of convection. I think in your main risk area, you will be able to salvage a more discrete mode capable of all hazards. But globals can tend to underdo kinematics as seen with this event tomorrow which I have eyes on a lot now, so don't call off Wednesday as being run of the mill yet.
Click to expand...
Now I'm seeing some talk on X about this setup.

I wouldn't disagree with a 5CIG1 in this area at all honestly, given that the front doesn't clash into NE AR until 03z or so. A semi-embedded QLCS of sorts may develop with prior storms in W TN/NW MS with a sneaky tornado threat too so heads up @tennessee storm chaser
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Now I'm seeing some talk on X about this setup.

I wouldn't disagree with a 5CIG1 in this area at all honestly, given that the front doesn't clash into NE AR until 03z or so. A semi-embedded QLCS of sorts may develop with prior storms in W TN/NW MS with a sneaky tornado threat too so heads up @tennessee storm chaser
Click to expand...
New day 2, with 5% hatched

LATE AFTERNOON, SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR
THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM AR INTO NORTHEAST TX. GIVEN ROBUST MOISTURE
WITH UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS, 60+ KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND EFFECTIVE
SRH MAXIMIZED OVER AR, TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE
COMBINATION OF A CAPPING INVERSION OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, FORCED
CELLS TIMED WITH PEAK HEATING, AND A POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM
OUTFLOW/ENHANCED ZONE OF SRH, A STRONG TORNADO IS CONDITIONALLY
POSSIBLE.
 
Kds86z said:
New day 2, with 5% hatched

LATE AFTERNOON, SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR
THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM AR INTO NORTHEAST TX. GIVEN ROBUST MOISTURE
WITH UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS, 60+ KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND EFFECTIVE
SRH MAXIMIZED OVER AR, TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE
COMBINATION OF A CAPPING INVERSION OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, FORCED
CELLS TIMED WITH PEAK HEATING, AND A POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM
OUTFLOW/ENHANCED ZONE OF SRH, A STRONG TORNADO IS CONDITIONALLY
POSSIBLE.
Click to expand...
I can see potential for a enchanced tornado driven risk area in that current cig area
 
New D3 expands the Slight Risk up to the AL/GA border, and brings the Marginal Risk further into eastern Tennessee.
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 PM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS
INTO ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday
afternoon and evening across portions of Texas into the lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Damaging winds, large hail, and a
couple of tornadoes will be possible.

...Synopsis...
A large positive-tilt upper trough will extend from upper Great
Lakes into the Southwest, with a broad zone of strong mid to high
levels southwesterlies extending from the southern Plains across the
lower to middle MS and TN Valleys. Gradual cooling aloft will occur
through the period as this upper trough proceeds gradually east. At
the surface, a cold front will extend from the upper OH Valley into
central TX during the day, and this front will surge south overnight
into the southeastern states and southern TX.

...Eastern TX into the TN Valley...
A very moist air mass will exist ahead of the cold front, with 70s F
dewpoints from TX into AL. Early day storms are likely in the warm
advection regime over parts of KY and TN, aided by southwest 850 mb
winds around 40 kt. This may temporarily stabilize these northern
areas before destabilization occurs later in the day. The strongest
heating will occur from TX into MS/AL, with MUCAPE up to 3000 J/kg.

The greatest risk area will extend from the Sabine River into MS and
northern AL late in the day, perhaps near 00Z, and into the early
evening, as storms finally break the capping inversion after a full
days heating. Deep-layer shear will be oriented mostly parallel to
the front, and low-level winds will be a bit veered with marginal
SRH values. Still, supercells may develop owing to strong effective
shear, with steep lapse rates aloft supporting hail. Damaging winds
may become an issue as storms possibly merge with bowing structures.

For northern areas from TN into KY, the risk will depend on air mass
recovery in the wake of any early day activity. Conditionally,
low-level shear may be stronger in this region, with an isolated
tornado or hail risk.

..Jewell.. 05/04/2026
Click to expand...
UeeLu2G.png
 
Sounding from near Cartersville, GA off the 18Z NAM Wednesday evening. Wind profiles aren't out of this world, but they're also more than enough to support tornadoes. Combining these kinematics with some pretty impressive thermodynamics for a Wednesday evening in the Deep South, and I'd definitely say there's some cause for concern. Probably will have a QLCS situation, but storms will be moving more laterally than usual, and there will be quite a bit of training, which could cause flooding issues.
kaHxHKW.png
 
Hoping it comes through late overnight in the ATL metro. I have 6 baseball playoff games across 3 divisions plus one league running 4 softball division championships Wednesday night. Would love to get through that day after having just 4 weather cancellations days all year. So classic that it's coming in right at our busiest time of year.
 
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