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2026 Global Tropical Cyclone Discussion

Rachel is yet another massive storm. Expect major by tonight, even so. Zoomed out for scale.

View attachment 55079

And we may be watching yet another right behind this one. GFS shows a threat to the west coast of Mexico on the one behind Rachel.

edit: I initially put Euro but realized I was looking at the GFS. The Euro is much less aggressive with this threat right now.
 
And we may be watching yet another right behind this one. GFS shows a threat to the west coast of Mexico on the one behind Rachel.

edit: I initially put Euro but realized I was looking at the GFS. The Euro is much less aggressive with this threat right now.
The one behind it looks pretty impressive on the Google model

Screenshot 2026-10-01 at 1.35.05 AM.png
 
I’m sorry, I don’t usually call out things like this here, but in no way, shape or form is Typhoon Choi-wan a 95 kt (110 mph) typhoon right now, and even crazier, Dvorak came in at T #5.5 on the typhoon.
IMG_2996.jpegIMG_2997.jpeg
 
Here is the same pic in the Dvorak colors

IMG_2998.jpeg
 
It looks better than it did last night, and the JTWC is being more reasonable with the intensity now
 
12Z was revised from 135 kts to 140 kts, making Choi-wan the fourth Category 5 Super Typhoon of the WPAC season
 
It’s looking like no names in the Atlantic/Gulf will be retired after this season. It will be interesting to see if any Eastern Pacific names get retired after this season is over.
That would be the first time since 2023 that no names got retired in the Atlantic
 
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