2026 Global Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Blountwolf]

Yep. Polo is not done. That big eye is getting really round now.

 

[slenker]

Here we go again. Eye’s pretty much fully cleared again, much bigger this time around, and it’s getting that symmetric look. We’re going to see another breach into C5 shortly. I don’t think the pressure will go sub-900 again though.

 

[SouthFLwx]

View attachment 55057
Here we go again. Eye’s pretty much fully cleared again, much bigger this time around, and it’s getting that symmetric look. We’re going to see another breach into C5 shortly. I don’t think the pressure will go sub-900 again though.

if the eye can peak, this peak is probably gonna be 140-145 kts.

 

[Blountwolf]

No official pressure, but it looks a lot better now than it did at 6:40. Was already back to Cat 5, 160mph.

000
WTPZ62 KNHC 240042
TCUEP2
 
Hurricane Polo Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
640 PM CST Wed Sep 23 2026
 
...POLO HAS RESTRENGTHENED INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
 
Recent satellite intensity estimates indicate that Polo has quickly
strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane with estimated maximum
sustained winds of 160 mph (260 km/h). This intensity change will be
reflected in the next routine forecast advisory package that will be
issued by 900 PM CST (0300 UTC).
 
SUMMARY OF 640 PM CST...0040 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 102.3W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.31 INCHES
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Blountwolf]

What a blob... can't say I've ever seen a cane do this before.

 

[Blountwolf]

Seriously, this is going to need to be studied by some REALLY smart people, because... what?

 

[slenker]

Seriously, this is going to need to be studied by some REALLY smart people, because... what?

The eye has also shrunk considerably and looks really menacing again, it's probably going to intensify a third time. The blob almost looks anticyclonic, (see edit) it looks like it has an eye of some kind... Normally these blobs in TCs are located to the east or northeast of the COC, so this is really unusual for sure. I wonder if there are any other examples of this occurring, because I certainly haven't been watching the weather long enough to know if there has been.

I think we're also about to see another big time blowup of CDO cooling here unless it undergoes some sort of ERC again.

EDIT: Seriously, what the hell is that? It actually looks like another system entirely, there's clearly some sort of eye-like structure there, and I take back that it looks anticyclonic, because I can't tell what direction it is rotating at all (if it is - certainly looks like it).

 

[Blountwolf]

The eye has also shrunk considerably and looks really menacing again, it's probably going to intensify a third time. The blob almost looks anticyclonic, (see edit) it looks like it has an eye of some kind... Normally these blobs in TCs are located to the east or northeast of the COC, so this is really unusual for sure. I wonder if there are any other examples of this occurring, because I certainly haven't been watching the weather long enough to know if there has been.

I think we're also about to see another big time blowup of CDO cooling here unless it undergoes some sort of ERC again.

EDIT: Seriously, what the hell is that? It actually looks like another system entirely, there's clearly some sort of eye-like structure there, and I take back that it looks anticyclonic, because I can't tell what direction it is rotating at all (if it is - certainly looks like it).

I'm thinking Fujiwara interaction with the other system out there - looping back, the blob began when the midlevel water vapor from the other system started getting pulled in. Fujiwara may not be the right term here - they aren't directly interacting, but Polo is "downstream".

EDIT - and it may trigger another EWRC. Polo wants to be huge.

 

[Mike S]

I'm thinking Fujiwara interaction with the other system out there - looping back, the blob began when the midlevel water vapor from the other system started getting pulled in. Fujiwara may not be the right term here - they aren't directly interacting, but Polo is "downstream".

EDIT - and it may trigger another EWRC. Polo wants to be huge.

A little too far apart for Fujiwara I think.

This is an incredible storm.

 

[Mike S]

Though not nearly has visually striking as Polo, Nolo has a chance at directly striking Hawaii. Worth keeping an eye on.

 

[JPWX]

You had the same blob with at least some strong hurricanes the last few years. The first real I guess time where folks took notice of it was with Matthew 2016. Since then, you had with Beryl, Melissa, Milton, and maybe Helene if I remember right. There's been debate about what causes it, but to be quite honest, there's never been an exact cause mentioned that I know of. The way I view it is it's kinda acts as a shield and/or barrier to protect the hurricane from shear. That's the best guess I have.

 

[SouthFLwx]

Think what's causing that blob to the NW of Polo has to do with the terrain of Mexico.

 

[Blountwolf]

A little too far apart for Fujiwara I think.

This is an incredible storm.

Agreed - Fujiwara was the wrong term, but the timing with the arrival of the mid level moisture off Odalys made it pretty obvious that an interaction between the air masses initiated the big blob. The size and the odd yin/yang look is what I had never seen before - blobs with storms aren't unusual.

Incredible storm is right - the imagery on it is incredible, can't wait to see if it does more.

Hurricane Polo | CIRA Satellite Library

satlib.cira.colostate.edu

 

[Blountwolf]

Think what's causing that blob to the NW of Polo has to do with the terrain of Mexico.

I'm curious - what makes you think that - channeling off the mountains?

 

[JPWX]

Here's the answer: Thunderstorm "blobs" or heavy convective bursts just west or east of a hurricane are primarily caused by vertical wind shear interacting with the storm's internal rotation and moisture supply.