2026 Global Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Atlantic]

Welcome Category 5 Major Hurricane Lowell…

Lowell becomes the second Category 5 hurricane of the 2026 Pacific Hurricane Season…

 

[Kds86z]

Beast

 

[Kds86z]

Trinity

 

[Blountwolf]

Fun times.

 

[SouthFLwx]

Fun times.
View attachment 54825

ACE has now skyrocketed to 130 units due to this trio of storms.

 

[Mike S]

Is it just me, or is Lowell trending closer to Hawaii? I admittedly haven't paid that close attention.

 

[Atlantic]

Is it just me, or is Lowell trending closer to Hawaii? I admittedly haven't paid that close attention.

It seems to be trending eastward, which means Lowell may affect similar areas to where Lala recently affected.

 

[SouthFLwx]

Is it just me, or is Lowell trending closer to Hawaii? I admittedly haven't paid that close attention.

It is a little

 

[Kds86z]

 

[SouthFLwx]

beautiful storm

 

[akt1985]

The NHC says Hurricane Watches might be required for parts of Hawaii. At least Lowell is now down to a Category 4.

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

 

[Atlantic]

*in a tiny voice* What is this? In the black circle. Hahahahahaha!!

 

[SouthFLwx]

*in a tiny voice* What is this? In the black circle. Hahahahahaha!!

View attachment 54990

That's not gonna form, would rather pay attention to the yellow AOI and the one off the coast of Mexico.

 

[Atlantic]

That's not gonna form, would rather pay attention to the yellow AOI and the one off the coast of Mexico.

I know it wouldn’t, but it’s funny to see

 

[Atlantic]

We have Tropical Storm Dujuan in the WPAC, which is the 25th named storm of the season, and it is expected to become a brief typhoon before recurving near Japan.

 

[slenker]

EPAC seems like it's about to light up with some major hurricanes right now. Invests 98E and 99E are located in a solid environment for intensification, and 99E in particular has my interest. HAFS-B Parent has a doublet of C2-3 hurricanes on a collision course 126 hours out. I wouldn't be surprised if 99E becomes a C4+, given the intense El Nino environment.

 

[Atlantic]

EPAC seems like it's about to light up with some major hurricanes right now. Invests 98E and 99E are located in a solid environment for intensification, and 99E in particular has my interest. HAFS-B Parent has a doublet of C2-3 hurricanes on a collision course 126 hours out. I wouldn't be surprised if 99E becomes a C4+, given the intense El Nino environment.
View attachment 55019

Another round of Karina-Lowell is in the books definitely (Karina and Lowell were MHs at the same time)

 

[SouthFLwx]

Another round of Karina-Lowell is in the books definitely (Karina and Lowell were MHs at the same time)

Not sure that Odalys becomes a major hurricanes, but Polo is expected to become a cat 4.

 

[Atlantic]

Tropical Storm Polo is in the midst of an explosive rapid intensification episode, with the intensity currently at 65 mph (55 kts), and the forecast calling for Polo to be a Category 2 hurricane by 8 pm tonight with 100 mph (85 kt) winds, and the current forecast explicitly calls for a Category 5 hurricane now, with the forecaster writing the discussion saying this

Conditions look ideal for explosive intensification during the next day or two, with Polo's small inner core over very warm and untapped waters above 30.5C, within light shear and plentiful mid-level moisture. Every model responds to these conditions by showing rapid intensification, and the SHIPS rapid intensification index is showing percentages as high as I have ever seen them. The new forecast is raised from the previous one and is very aggressive, but still below the latest HCCA corrected-consensus aid, which verbatim would be at least a 99th percentile event for intensification.