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2025 Global Tropical Cyclone Season Discussion

Atlantic

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What is also notable is the fact that every SHEM Major that has formed so far has been in the SWIO.

In terms of outlook, Invest 90S (Tropical Low 10U) and recently designated Invest 91S (Tropical Low 11U) are sitting over near the NW coast of Australia. They will likely merge and become a strong storm here soon if model guidance can be trusted.
 

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What is also notable is the fact that every SHEM Major that has formed so far has been in the SWIO.

In terms of outlook, Invest 90S (Tropical Low 10U) and recently designated Invest 91S (Tropical Low 11U) are sitting over near the NW coast of Australia. They will likely merge and become a strong storm here soon if model guidance can be trusted.
Screenshot 2025-01-16 9.55.13 AM.png
Invest 90S on the left, Invest 91S on the right.
 

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The
View attachment 33078
Invest 90S on the left, Invest 91S on the right.
The BoM (The RSMC for the Australian Region) Has given the soon to be combined feature of 90S (Their 10U) and 91S (Their 11U) a high chance (70%) by the 20th of January. They expect 11U (JTWC's Invest 91S) to come out on top.

In their words:
  • The formation of 11U may be affected by tropical low (10U) however it is increasingly likely that the two systems will form into one broad low during Saturday.
  • The potential for 11U to become a tropical cyclone increases to High during Sunday.
  • There is a chance that gales may develop in offshore waters from the Pilbara coast as 11U intensifies during Sunday.
 

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On this day two years ago, an unnamed Subtropical Storm formed over the Gulf Stream near the U.S. East Coast. It would peak at 70 mph, just shy of hurricane intensity. The storm would also signal the beginning of what was to become a record-active Atlantic Hurricane Season despite a Strong El Niño developing later on in the year.

IMG_3187.png
 

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My UNOFFICIAL Forecast Cone for Invest 91S (Tropical Low 11U):
Screenshot 2025-01-17 10.52.42 AM.png
Forecast intensity:
(SSHWS)
TD - 30 KTS 35 MPH
TS - 40 KTS 45 MPH
C1 - 70 KTS 80 MPH
C2 - 90 KTS 105 MPH
C2 - 95 KTS 110 MPH
C3 - 100 KTS 115 MPH
C3 - 100 KTS 115 MPH
C2 - 90 KTS 105 MPH
C1 - 80 KTS 90 MPH
C1 - 65 KTS 75 MPH
TS - 50 KTS 60 MPH
 
Last edited:

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Intense Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi is likely no more now after an impressive journey of 19 days (8 days as a TC).

It's duration was from December 29th, 2024 to January 17th, 2025.

In regards to the Mozambique Channel which Dikeledi left recently, models are beginning to support another cyclone over the relatively untapped waters of that area. GFS of course has been flipping between another strong storm and a sloppy mess.

Another TC could form in central portion of the SWIO also as model support seems to be growing.
 

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Intense Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi is likely no more now after an impressive journey of 19 days (8 days as a TC).

It's duration was from December 29th, 2024 to January 17th, 2025.

In regards to the Mozambique Channel which Dikeledi left recently, models are beginning to support another cyclone over the relatively untapped waters of that area. GFS of course has been flipping between another strong storm and a sloppy mess.

Another TC could form in central portion of the SWIO also as model support seems to be growing.
Goodbye Dikeledi indeed.
Screenshot 2025-01-17 3.18.04 PM.png
 

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Invest 90S is now Tropical Cyclone 10S! First forecast calls for a 105 mph peak.

WTXS32 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/172221ZJAN2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 19.3S 119.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S 119.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 19.3S 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 19.7S 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 20.4S 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.3S 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 23.6S 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 25.8S 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 27.6S 103.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---

















Apparently Invest 97S was a TC. It was transitioned to SH092025 after it dissipated.
 

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The August 29th paradox in the Atlantic basin

IMG_3726.jpeg
Katrina 2005 Issac 2012 Ida 2021

It’s so interesting that three different storm have made landfall in the same state several years apart.
 

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@JPWX

I was looking through the 2024 Global Tropical Cyclone Discussion thread and saw a post of yours noting that the WPAC was off to a slow start.

This appears to be the case again.
 

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@JPWX

I was looking through the 2024 Global Tropical Cyclone Discussion thread and saw a post of yours noting that the WPAC was off to a slow start.

This appears to be the case again.
It does. We'll have to watch trends because we ended up going 204 consecutive days without the first major category 3+ typhoon last year. That streak ended on July 23rd when Gaemi became the first major typhoon.
 

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It does. We'll have to watch trends because we ended up going 204 consecutive days without the first major category 3+ typhoon last year. That streak ended on July 23rd when Gaemi became the first major typhoon.
I am seeing worrying trends in models suggesting a 2005-like kind of season in tracks.

If 2024 and 2004 both were Florida's Galore for storms, what does that mean for this year? I am not trying to hype up anything, but it is just a concern of mine.

Something to note, the 2015-2017 period in ENSO is looking like what we are or have seen over the last two seasons (2023-2024)

Quote to a PM I sent to a friend

''
2015 was a strong El Nino, followed by early 2016 continuing the strong El Nino from 2015 for a time before going to La Nina by the end of the year. 2017 early on had a warm up in the ENSO region which led to many thinking that 2017 might become an El Nino. 2017 didn't, and instead went on to become a second-year La Nina by the end of the year.

2023 was a Strong El Nino, followed by 2024 starting early on with the continuation of that Strong El Nino from 2023. 2024 went cool neutral for a good portion of the year, but one could argue that it may have been a La Nina late in the 2024 Hurricane Season. 2025 began with a La Nina like 2017 and models like 2017 are suggesting a warm-up through springtime.''
 

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I am seeing worrying trends in models suggesting a 2005-like kind of season in tracks.

If 2024 and 2004 both were Florida's Galore for storms, what does that mean for this year? I am not trying to hype up anything, but it is just a concern of mine.

Something to note, the 2015-2017 period in ENSO is looking like what we are or have seen over the last two seasons (2023-2024)

Quote to a PM I sent to a friend

''
2015 was a strong El Nino, followed by early 2016 continuing the strong El Nino from 2015 for a time before going to La Nina by the end of the year. 2017 early on had a warm up in the ENSO region which led to many thinking that 2017 might become an El Nino. 2017 didn't, and instead went on to become a second-year La Nina by the end of the year.

2023 was a Strong El Nino, followed by 2024 starting early on with the continuation of that Strong El Nino from 2023. 2024 went cool neutral for a good portion of the year, but one could argue that it may have been a La Nina late in the 2024 Hurricane Season. 2025 began with a La Nina like 2017 and models like 2017 are suggesting a warm-up through springtime.''
That's interesting.
 

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I finished the 2024 Atlantic PowerPoints yesterday and now I'm in the process of manually updating all my other tropical spreadsheets. I'll be starting the 2024 Eastern Pacific PowerPoints soon.
 

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Moderate Tropical Storm Elvis's discussion from the JTWC is kind of funny at the end in today's discussion:

Screenshot 2025-01-30 9.46.24 AM.png
 

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Moderate Tropical Storm Elvis's discussion from the JTWC is kind of funny at the end in today's discussion:

View attachment 33384
The full discussion:

WDXS32 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELVIS) WARNING NR
003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 26.8S 44.2E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 352 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A VERY
COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AND A RESURGENCE OF
DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE LLCC OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE LLCC AND EVEN NOW, AT 0700Z, THE CONVECTION IS
STARTING TO WANE A BIT, REVEALING THE TIGHT INNER SPIRAL OF THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS THUS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A
LACK OF RECENT MICROWAVE AND WIND SPEED MEASUREMENTS MEANS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AND
HEDGED A BIT HIGHER THAN THE BULK OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES DUE TO THE EXTREMELY SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM
AND CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW T3.0 ESTIMATE. THE SYSTEM LIES OVER
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS, WHICH ARE CONTINUING TO PROVIDE AMPLE
ENERGY FLUX TO SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION. WHILE SHEAR IS STARTING TO
PICK UP A BIT, THE SYSTEM IS SITUATED AHEAD OF A DEEP 200MB TROUGH
AND AT THE BASE OF A STRONG JET MAXIMUM, LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT
UPTICK IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH IS OFFSETTING THE SHEAR.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED NEAR THE MASCARENE ISLANDS

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
FMEE: T2.5 - 35 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 30 KTS AT 300600Z
CIMSS AIDT: 36 KTS AT 300600Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 35 KTS AT 300306Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 31 KTS AT 300600Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 12S (ELVIS) IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER STR CENTERED TO THE EAST, WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IN TERMS OF
INTENSITY, THE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
OFFSET THE SLOWLY INCREASING SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS,
WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS,
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF THE INCREASING SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE THE ROBUST OUTFLOW BY TAU 24, AND THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN AFTER THIS POINT. AT THE SAME TIME, TC 12S WILL BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED UNDER 500MB
TROUGH AXIS AND WORKS UNDER THE 200MB JET MAX. ETT IS EXPECTED TO
BE WRAPPED UP NO LATER THAN TAU 48, WITH ELVIS LEAVING THE BUILDING
AS A GALE-FORCE EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF EITHER CROSS- OR
ALONG-TRACK SPREAD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS A MIXED BAG, WITH THE COAMPS-TC HOLDING THE
SYSTEM AT OR ABOVE 40 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 72, THE MESOSCALE GFS AND
HAFS-A TRACING A SINE WAVE PATTERN PEAKING AT 45KTS BY TAU 12, THEN
WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 48 FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION
DRIVEN BY BAROCLINIC FORCING AFTER THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FINALLY, THE SHIPS AND HWRF GUIDANCE DEPICT THE SYSTEM WEAKENING
BELOW WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE JTWC FORECAST
IS ROUGHLY BASED ON A BLEND OF THE HAFS-A, COAMPS-TC AND
PERSISTENCE.
THANK YOU VERY MUCH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN
 

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Moderate Tropical Storm Elvis's discussion from the JTWC is kind of funny at the end in today's discussion:

View attachment 33384
The full discussion:

WDXS32 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELVIS) WARNING NR
003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 26.8S 44.2E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 352 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A VERY
COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AND A RESURGENCE OF
DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE LLCC OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE LLCC AND EVEN NOW, AT 0700Z, THE CONVECTION IS
STARTING TO WANE A BIT, REVEALING THE TIGHT INNER SPIRAL OF THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS THUS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A
LACK OF RECENT MICROWAVE AND WIND SPEED MEASUREMENTS MEANS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AND
HEDGED A BIT HIGHER THAN THE BULK OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES DUE TO THE EXTREMELY SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM
AND CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW T3.0 ESTIMATE. THE SYSTEM LIES OVER
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS, WHICH ARE CONTINUING TO PROVIDE AMPLE
ENERGY FLUX TO SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION. WHILE SHEAR IS STARTING TO
PICK UP A BIT, THE SYSTEM IS SITUATED AHEAD OF A DEEP 200MB TROUGH
AND AT THE BASE OF A STRONG JET MAXIMUM, LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT
UPTICK IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH IS OFFSETTING THE SHEAR.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED NEAR THE MASCARENE ISLANDS

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
FMEE: T2.5 - 35 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 30 KTS AT 300600Z
CIMSS AIDT: 36 KTS AT 300600Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 35 KTS AT 300306Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 31 KTS AT 300600Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 12S (ELVIS) IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER STR CENTERED TO THE EAST, WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IN TERMS OF
INTENSITY, THE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
OFFSET THE SLOWLY INCREASING SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS,
WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS,
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF THE INCREASING SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE THE ROBUST OUTFLOW BY TAU 24, AND THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN AFTER THIS POINT. AT THE SAME TIME, TC 12S WILL BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED UNDER 500MB
TROUGH AXIS AND WORKS UNDER THE 200MB JET MAX. ETT IS EXPECTED TO
BE WRAPPED UP NO LATER THAN TAU 48, WITH ELVIS LEAVING THE BUILDING
AS A GALE-FORCE EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF EITHER CROSS- OR
ALONG-TRACK SPREAD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS A MIXED BAG, WITH THE COAMPS-TC HOLDING THE
SYSTEM AT OR ABOVE 40 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 72, THE MESOSCALE GFS AND
HAFS-A TRACING A SINE WAVE PATTERN PEAKING AT 45KTS BY TAU 12, THEN
WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 48 FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION
DRIVEN BY BAROCLINIC FORCING AFTER THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FINALLY, THE SHIPS AND HWRF GUIDANCE DEPICT THE SYSTEM WEAKENING
BELOW WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE JTWC FORECAST
IS ROUGHLY BASED ON A BLEND OF THE HAFS-A, COAMPS-TC AND
PERSISTENCE.
THANK YOU VERY MUCH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN
 

Atlantic

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Over the past two days several things have happened.

  • The JTWC's Tropical Cyclone 11S was named by Meteo-France as Moderate Tropical Storm Faida
  • Invest 99S (Tropical Low 14U) became 13S Tropical Cyclone Vince
  • Invest 90S (Tropical Low 15U) became 14S Tropical Cyclone Taliah
  • An Invest was designated sometime around the 31st of January or the 1st of February as 91P and it quickly became 15P Tropical Cyclone Fifteen

Screenshot 2025-02-03 10.03.33 AM.png
From right to left be hemisphere: (SHEM: Tropical Cyclone 15P (Fifteen), Invest 92P (Tropical Low 16U), Tropical Cyclone Taliah (JTWC's 14S and former Tropical Low 15U), Tropical Cyclone Vince (JTWC's 13S and former Tropical Low 14U), Moderate Tropical Storm Faida (JTWC's 11S and former Meteo-France's 07). (NHEM: Invest 92W)
 

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Severe Tropical Cyclone Vince reached a peak of 115 mph overnight before it crossed 90E and moved into Meteo-France\La Reunion's AoR (South-West Indian Ocean) and weakened slightly to 110 mph. Vince was the second major cyclone of the current Australian Region season.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Taliah gained Category 2-eqivelent intensity overnight, with a current intensity of 100 mph.

Moderate Tropical Storm Faida has confounded forecasters at the JTWC as its' center of circulation actually turned southwards near the eastern coast of Madagascar. It is expected to degrade to a remnant low but also has a chance to regenerate in the Mozambique Channel.

Tropical Cyclone 15P is barely holding on and has a current intensity of 40 mph. 15P is expected to transition into a hybrid subtropical system before fully transitioning into a extratropical low and regain some intensity.

Invest 92P (Tropical Low 16U) has been dropped by the BoM of Australia, but has a high chance of forming into a TC with the next 24 hours by the JTWC, which has issued a TCFA on it.
Screenshot 2025-02-04 1.27.58 PM.png Screenshot 2025-02-04 1.30.42 PM.png
 
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