34 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:
right here we go again lads
i see the s2k lot are still banging on about their “mixed signals” and there are even those on stormiest cherry-picking years like 2013 out of thin air — absolute bollocks if you ask me.
now i see ustropics and his mates are wheeling out the composite charts and parroting the “composite average of the to 10 ace years” line like it means something in a real-life season. let me be clear:
composites are for people who can’t handle nuance and want a mushy middle ground that doesn’t reflect reality. you might as well take a pint of every beer in the pub, mix it together, and say it tastes like “the average british lager.” it’s pure cope.
we get they've got a “professional-met” badge but acting like blending together a bunch of rando “top 10 ace” years doesn't necessarily give you some oracular vision. mate, all your composite proves is you know how to use numpy.mean, not that you understand what actually drives an active season. blending 2004, 2005, 2020, and 2017 together just smooths out every real signal, like pureeing your roast dinner in a nutribullet and calling it cuisine. storms don’t care about your composite, they care about the
actual synoptic set-up in real analog years.
let me just break this down for yous properly since clearly none of those lot can read a bloody map innit
first of all let’s have a gander at these SST anomalies, shall we? look at your own maps—ive even bloody uploaded them right here for ya. compare 2004 to 2025. almost spot on. kuroshio current warm, canary current warm, cool gulf stream tongue, and your enso cold tongue—there’s your teleconnection skeleton for ya. identical mate. absolutely identical. your eyes struggling? go spec-savers then
right lets talk geopotential heights since you lot love that fancy terminology—again, look at the maps ive given ya. 2004 vs 2025 again. spot the difference? barely any. you’ve got your trough in europe, negative heights N Atl and NE Pac—classic azores weak high set-up. slightly deeper trough this year actually so even MORE bullish if you know what you’re looking at—which clearly most of yous don’t
zonal winds at 850mb—have a look at the images ive so kindly provided again—classic 2004 dipole pattern with your easterlies going strong across ITCZ subtropics again. stronger easterlies this year if anything. translation: LESS early-season shear this year, more opportunity for storms. simples innit?
now lets talk about the rainfall anomalies—yes yes, the one bloody difference you lot have latched onto like a drowning man onto driftwood. “ohhh but the Caribbean’s dry”—yeah right, have you ever looked at historical weeklies or are you just copy-pasting from some NOAA composite? if you bothered to look properly, you’d see this dry Caribbean bollocks is just a timing issue, happens every other big season before the monsoon and MJO surge in july. ive even included 2020 as proof—a notoriously active year that started dry in the Caribbean as well. your “dry Caribbean” is literally just waiting for the MJO to flip the switch mid-july. watch and learn
and for the 2013 comparison over on stormcast—what absolute rubbish, who pulled that one out of their arse? 2013 had cold MDR SSTs, warm subtropics, westerlies blowing all over the bloody tropics, a huge euro ridge blocking vorticity. completely opposite to 2025—use your eyes for goodness sake. it’s not even close to being in the same ballpark let alone solar system. comparing 2025 to 2013 is like comparing apples to cabbages
look—2004 delivered 15 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 6 bloody majors, ACE of 227, and four US landfalling majors. i didnt just pull these numbers out my backside—its literally history. same pattern this year, same setup, and the atmosphere is MORE favourable this time around, not less
my forecast is 17-10-4/5, ACE 190—and I bet you I would be labelled bullish. those lot stuck in your NOAA and CSU echo chambers are the bearish boomers here, hanging onto composites that hide the real story. if you think my forecast is “bullish” you’ve got another thing coming—im just calling it how it is, based on historical precedent, real patterns, and actual atmospheric dynamics—not NPC seasonal composites or broken models
wake up and smell the coffee, lads—2004 is your clean analog, your “mixed signals” is cope, and your “dry Caribbean” claim is about to get utterly shredded when the MJO flips later this month
mark my words, ill be back in september to remind ya when the first Cape Verde monster spins up and all you mixed-signal merchants scatter faster than roaches when the lights flick on
absolute state of forecasting these days—stick to your Netflix subscriptions and retirement homes if you cant keep up, leave the real forecasting to those of us who can actually see past composite means and NOAA’s “mixed signal” fantasies
rant over, and god save the bloody king
This is in response to this s2k user claim:
and this stormcast user:
