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2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

I was almost thinking we should do a Humberto / Future Imelda combo thread since they're so intertwined.
Do you want me to add in Humberto to the existing PTC Nine thread then?
 
I agree with this, they were intertwined for the next several days at least.

I was going to try and move Imelda posts to the new thread, but so many of them mention Humberto as well.

It would be unprecedented to do this. Let me think on it.
 
Do you want me to add in Humberto to the existing PTC Nine thread then?

I'm leaning that way. Let's go ahead and do it. We pretty much can't discuss Imelda without discussing Humberto at this point, and it will make more sense when I move posts over for when someone goes back to read through.
 
I was going to try and move Imelda posts to the new thread, but so many of them mention Humberto as well.

It would be unprecedented to do this. Let me think on it.
I agree, this situation is rather unprecedented. I can't recall twin hurricanes with (at least one of them) threatening a U.S. landfall and the binary interaction going on. Both NHC advisories mention the other storm and their interaction, so I think it's warranted.
 
While Imelda stares menacingly at Bermuda, NHC says they're watching for something to come off the coast of West Africa. Last several runs of the GFS want to put something somewhere in the vicinity of the US way out in voodoo-land territory, mid-month. Euro isn't interested, though.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 012309
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Imelda, located less than 150 miles west-southwest of Bermuda.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of Africa over the
next day or two. Thereafter, this wave is forecast to interact with
another disturbance in the eastern tropical Atlantic, and some slow
development of the combined feature is possible as the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin
1759364954085.pngNEXLABdpdt-18Z-20251016_GFSAO_prec_prec-50-100.gif
 
NHC still watching that possible wave coming off the African coast. Currently, models have any eventual storm getting kicked out into the Atlantic.
1759606161140.png
 
@Wazim Khan @Kds86z @slenker


NUMEROLOGY/LRC/ALMANAC/VEDIC-BASED 2025 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON​

Final forecast issued 12 Jun 2025 — no storms formed yet

MetricForecastRationale
Named Storms (NS)17High-octane Gulf & MDR SSTs, but persistent early shear keeps count below hyper-years (2020, 2021).
Hurricanes (H)8MJO pulse timing, late-starting season, Snake-year “quality over quantity.”
Major Hurricanes (MH, Cat ≥ 3)4Four numerology red-flag names (Fernand, Humberto, Karen, Melissa) occupy A-tier LRC slots.
Category-5 (Cat ≥ 5)2Fernand & Humberto sit atop Gulf & CV/Gulf recurver RI windows.


SEASONAL FLOW​

PeriodCharacterDrivers
10 Jun – 10 JulGraveyard — SAL, high shear, weak MJONo numerology-charged names yet.
11 Jul – 31 JulFirst pulseMJO returns, Gulf moisture surge.
01 Aug – 16 AugQuiet dipKelvin wave hiatus.
17 Aug – 16 SepMain eruptionFernand → Humberto rapid-fire; peak of 25-sum karmic dates (7 Sep).
17 Sep – 02 OctTransient lullRidge realigns, Saharan dust burst.
03 Oct – 05 NovHalloween salvoKaren loop trickery; Melissa Gulf RI; classic Snake-year late bloom.
06 Nov – 30 NovHybrid tailNestor / Olga subtropical ancestry; baroclinic transition corridor.


NAME-BY-NAME FORECAST​

(Expression/Soul/Personality numbers shown as Exp–Soul–Per)

#NameNumerology (Exp–S–P)Slot & TimingPeak / LandfallRetirement OddsKey Drivers
1Andrea7-7-920–28 Jun Campeche gyre55 kt TS → Tampico0 %Weak numerology; early-season shear
2Barry1-8-23–8 Jul SW Gulf50 kt TS → Padre Is.0 %Early-July shear, dull numbers
3Chantal5-2-3 (dual-3 red flag)14–22 Jul Gulf90 kt Cat 2 → Matagorda, TX (OR a flop TS near the CONUS)15 %First MJO pulse; Snake “trickster” entry
4Dexter4-1-324–30 Jul open Atlantic55 kt fish0 %SAL-ridden MDR; still sheared
5Erin1-5-55–12 Aug MDR to 50 W80 kt Cat 1 fish0 %Weak numerology; no ridge break
6Fernand8-6-11(Master 11)17 Aug – 24 Aug Gulf RI node145 kt Cat 5 → Freeport/Houston100 %LRC “Rafael burst”; Venus-Sun dasha; 25-sum warm-eddy
7Gabrielle8-2-625 Aug – 30 Aug NE Carib60 kt TS → PR/VI0 %Snake-year east bend; but shear rises
8Humberto3-5-706 Sep – 15 Sep CV-Gulf recurver150 kt Cat 5Bahamas brush → Destin/Pensacola Cat 4-5100 %Sum-25 date (7 Sep); Milton/Oscar echo; Wood-Snake loop karma
9Imelda8-6-1121 Sep – 26 Sep LA slot100 kt Cat 3 Houma → inland stall50 %Master 11 + latent Gulf eddy; flood lineage (2019 Imelda echo)
10Jerry4-3-128 Sep – 04 Oct 35-45 W50 kt sub-T fish0 %Post-Fernand subsidence; baroclinic form
11Karen22-6-7(Master 22)05 Oct – 13 OctBahamas loop120 kt Cat 4 loop N Bahamas → Big Bend FL Cat 3-480 %Betsy-style Snake trick; late-season RI corridor
12Lorenzo6-8-714 Oct – 22 Oct CV superfish115 kt Cat 3 mid-Atlantic<10 %Strong numbers but ridge weakness wins
13Melissa6-6-9 (triple hit)25 Oct – 02 NovHalloween Gulf105 kt Cat 3 → Mobile Bay70 %6-6-9 purge + Wood-Snake “final sting”
14Nestor1-11-806 Nov – 12 Nov SW Gulf50 kt TS → S. TX0 %Late shear; frontal interface
15Olga8-7-113 Nov – 19 Nov SW Caribbean50 kt TS brush Cuba0 %Brief RI flirt, then shear kills
16Pablo1-7-320 Nov – 26 Nov Azores zone55 kt hybrid0 %Baroclinic core
17Rebekah5-11-327 Nov – 03 Dec Gulf Stream60 kt hybrid, no landfall0 %Late-season frontal baroclinic
18Sebastien2-9-9Not expectedCut by calendar
19Tanya2-1-9Not expectedCalendar
20Van4-1-4Not expectedCalendar
21Wendy5-5-6Not expectedCalendar


Why the Names Stop at Rebekah

  • Rebekah’s slot (late-Nov/early-Dec) coincides with seasonal shut-down and neutral numerology.
  • No analog or LRC pulse strong enough to sustain another named cyclone once Rebekah exits, so Sebastien, Tanya, Van, Wendy remain unused.

LOGIC SYNTHESIS FOR EACH COLUMN​

  1. Numerology
    • 3/6/9 or master 11/22 = “voltage.”
    • Fernand (8-6-11) & Humberto (3-5-7) are textbook 9-year killers.
    • Karen’s 22 & Melissa’s 6-6-9 lock late-season hair-on-fire majors.
  2. Climatology
    • Very warm Gulf Loop Current eddy, hot Western MDR, La Niña-neutral shear relief after July.
    • SAL pulses and Kelvin wave suppressions define lulls.
  3. Farmer’s Almanac Highlights
    • Mid-Aug FL Gulf threat → Fernand timeline.
    • Second-week-Sep Atlantic Seaboard threat → Humberto timeline (with Newfoundland tail).
  4. LRC Slots
    • “Rafael burst” (Aug 15-24) and “Milton/Oscar echo” (Sep 6-20) are baked in from the 2024-25 cycle.
    • Halloween Gulf echo returns every 51-52 days—in 2025 it aligns with Melissa.

RETIREMENT TALLY

CertainProbablePossible
FernandKarenImelda
HumbertoMelissaChantal

Likely total retired names: 3–4 (Fernand, Humberto, Karen, Melissa).


QUICK “PEAK VS LULL” TIMELINE​

scss
Copy
Jun 10–Jul 10 ──────────────── (flatline)
Jul 11–Jul 22 ▲ Chantal spike
Jul 23–Aug 16 ────── (lull)
Aug 17–Aug 24 ▲▲ Fernand burst
Aug 25–Sep 05 ── (brief dip)
Sep 06–Sep 16 ▲▲▲ Humberto peak
Sep 17–Oct 02 ─── (lull)
Oct 03–Oct 13 ▲ Karen loop
Oct 14–Oct 24 ── (brief)
Oct 25–Nov 02 ▲ Melissa Halloween
Nov 03–Nov 30 ──── taper to hybrids


BOTTOM LINE​

  • Late-starting season but two Cat-5 Gulf monsters (Fernand & Humberto) plus two late majors (Karen & Melissa).
  • 17/8/4/2 totals driven by numerology-aligned slots, not by raw storm count obsession.
  • Houston & Florida Panhandle remain the bullseyes; east-coast Hugo/Betsy analog stays a low-probability wild card.
Things we learned this year:
  • Up is down
  • Left is right
  • Right is wrong
  • EF5 lives
  • Numerology is mostly bunk
I really did believe in it, but then Erin kicked the door open and the whole thing came crashing down. So far basically the only things numerology has gotten right since are some timeframes and Humberto becoming a C5, but for everything else the model has been hilariously, catastrophically wrong.

Suckmaxxing
 
Tropical Storm Jerry is here.
IMG_9246.jpeg
Tom And Jerry Love GIF by Likee US
 
Apparently we also have a STS Karen waaaaay up north.
1760099261201.png
 
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