2024 Tropical Cyclone season discussion

[Atlantic]

I found out the Island's name is Vingt Cinq. Chido continues it's approach;

 

[SouthFLwx]

I found out the Island's name is Vingt Cinq. Chido continues it's approach;

View attachment 31725

there are weather ops on this island, so we should have some interesting data coming out of there over the next few hours.

 

[Atlantic]

Chido is now moments away from it's first of many expected landfalls during its' existance.

 

[Atlantic]

there are weather ops on this island, so we should have some interesting data coming out of there over the next few hours.

CIMSS Dvorak was up to 5.1 earlier with an intensity of 97.2kts, which rounding up by five gives us 100kts or 115 mph, making Chido an Intense Tropical Cyclone and the 23rd global major cyclone of the year.

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) Version 9.1
Current Intensity Analysis UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 9.1 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 11 DEC 2024 Time : 163000 UTC Lat : 10:25:12 S Lon : 56:54:00 E CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 5.3 / 967.7mb/ 97.2kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 5.2 5.1 6.0 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km Center Temp : +8.6C Cloud Region Temp : -67.7C Scene Type : EYE Subtropical Adjustment : OFF Extratropical Adjustment : OFF Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING Ocean Basin : INDIAN Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr Weakening Flag : ON Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs : - Average 34 knot radii : 42nmi - Environmental MSLP : 1012mb Satellite Name : MSG2 Satellite Viewing Angle : 18.0 degrees ****************************************************
History File Listing Threshold All Basins = 12.0
ARCHER Information
PMW Information
Wind Radii Estimates (based on Knaff et al. 2016) (naut.mi.) R34 R50 R64 NE 60.0​ 25.0​ 10.0​ SE 85.0​ 35.0​ 20.0​ SW 85.0​ 35.0​ 20.0​ NW 65.0​ 30.0​ 10.0​ Parameters Used RMW derived from ADT TC current intensity from ADT = 97.2 (kts) TC forward speed from Forecast Interpolation = 8.9 (kts) TC heading from Forecast Interpolation = 269.8 (deg) Historical listing of wind radii values Timeline plots of Wind Radii : 34kt 50kt 64kt
Satellite Imagery	Time Series
HTML5 Movie

 

[Atlantic]

there are weather ops on this island, so we should have some interesting data coming out of there over the next few hours.

I wonder what the weather stations will report since they are going directly though the eyewall and eye of the storm.

 

[Atlantic]

TROPICAL CYCLONE CHIDO HAS MADE LANDFALL AT 1:00 PM EST TIME WITH 1-MIN SUSTAINED WINDS (JTWC CURRENT INTENSITY) OF 95 KTS (110 MPH). A SECOND LANDFALL WILL LIKELY HAPPEN IN MOMENTS ON THE ISLAND TO THE NORTHWEST

 

[Atlantic]

TROPICAL CYCLONE CHIDO HAS MADE LANDFALL AT 1:00 PM EST TIME WITH 1-MIN SUSTAINED WINDS (JTWC CURRENT INTENSITY) OF 95 KTS (110 MPH). A SECOND LANDFALL WILL LIKELY HAPPEN IN MOMENTS ON THE ISLAND TO THE NORTHWEST


View attachment 31728

SECOND LANDFALL AT 1:05 PM EST ON VINGT CINQ AS A 95KT (110 MPH) TROPICAL CYCLONE (JTWC INTENSITY)

 

[SouthFLwx]

I wonder what the weather stations will report since they are going directly though the eyewall and eye of the storm.

I don’t think they went through the eye.

 

[Atlantic]

JTWC has updated their forecast for Chido and now Chido's intensity is now 120 kts (140 mph), mid-end Category 4-equivalent, making it an Intense Tropical Cyclone now. The JTWC expects Chido to intensify a little further to 125 kts (145 mph) and then weaken while heading towards Madagascar and then Mozambique later on in the forecast period.

 

[Clancy]

Comoros is home to 1 million people and could be potentially be in the dark comms and electricity-wise by Chido. Mozambique is among the most socially vulnerable countries in the world, with multiple major cities, including Nacala and Pemba, in the path. Cabo Delgado is also dealing with an ISIL-linked insurgency, weakening infrastructure and response capabilities in the region.

 

[Atlantic]

In an interesting turn of events overnight for U.S. EST time, Chido has become an Very Intense Tropical Cyclone. Chido's current intensity from the JTWC is 135kts or 155 mph, which is high-end Category 4 equivelent.

 

[Atlantic]

A view of Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Chido:

 

[Atlantic]

Chido weakened over the past few hours with its' eye filling in. The eye is now appearing to clear out again though:

 

[Atlantic]

Chido has continued to weaken as it moves Southwest-ward towards the African coast. It has moved north of Madagascar, meaning it will likely be stronger at landfall in Mozambique.

 

[Atlantic]

Chido is now a Tropical Cyclone on the SWIO scale. JTWC intensity is now 90kts. Chido could make a very close approach or even landfall in Mayotte tomorrow around 1 AM EST time.

 

[Atlantic]

And to think when the JTWC initated warnings on Chido, their first forecast called for a 70 mph peak. Chido well-outperformed forecasts definitely.

 

[Atlantic]

Chido pulling a last minute reintenifcation trend of course;

 

[Atlantic]

And an interesting feature in the Atlantic too

(Over on the right near Africa)

 

[Atlantic]

Chido is just a few minutes away from its’ final landfall, this one likely as a Cat 4-equivalent cyclone

 

[Atlantic]

The 12Z GFS model run was interesting for Madagascar.

It has a TC form 10 days from now and ride just off-shore the entire eastern coast of Madagascar.

(Edit: It won't let me put the run in again, so I will put them in screenshot image by screenshot image)

Three images as part 1: