2024 Tropical Cyclone season discussion

[Atlantic]

Kristy's cloud tops around the eye definitely seems to have warmed over the past few hours. I would say it's likely weaker now.

 

[Atlantic]

I apolgize for the rapid posting on here. I have managed to find ASCAT for the Zoom Earth image above:

Looks like 35-40kts

 

[Atlantic]

I take that back, Kristy is now a Category 5!

Kristy's cloud tops around the eye definitely seems to have warmed over the past few hours. I would say it's likely weaker now.

 

[tornado examiner]

Kristy will likely be confirmed as a category 5 in the next advisory

 

[tornado examiner]

Category five hurricane Kristy has been confirmed

 

[JBishopwx]

Interesting track of Typhoon Trami

 

[warneagle]

Interesting track of Typhoon TramiView attachment 31151

sorry, sorry, forgot my wallet, we gotta go back

 

[Atlantic]

Did someone order another CPAC storm?

 

[Mike S]

Typhoon Leon, aka Kong-rey, is making a beeline towards the SE coast of Taiwan as potentially a Cat 4 equivalent.

 

[Atlantic]

We have Invest 91E expected to crossover into the CPAC but now it seems support for this is decreasing, but that isn't what catchs my eye.

Bottom right on the top graph above ^

Bottom left on bottom graph

 

[Atlantic]

Here was the 00Z runs on that:

Edit: I know 00Z is happy hour so...

 

[Atlantic]

Super Typhoon Kong-rey may have been a Cat-3-equivent at landfall in Taiwan, but it set records. Mainly that this landfall makes the 2024 Typhoon Season one of a few seasons to see many typhoons make landfall in Taiwan. Gaemi made a Cat 4-equivent strike in July, then in early October Krathon was weakening from Super Typhoon status like Kong-rey and it still managed to landfall as a Cat 1-equivent.

Kong-rey also made an unusually late landfall in Taiwan.

 

[Atlantic]

Typhoon Yinxing (Phillippe name Marce) is near the northern tip of the Phillippes as of now. It is expected to move westwards into the South China Sea, and then weaken and drop southwards as weakening or even remnant low.

 

[Atlantic]

Okay 2024, we get it!

Typhoon Usagi (Ofel) is currently a 115-kt storm 949 mb storm, but I think THIS begs to differ:


Look at that small eye! I think this is already much stronger than 115-kts!

If you all remember Hurricane Milton, then this should remind you too.

 

[Atlantic]

Dvorak is up to 6.5 on Usagi now according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's Satellite Fix Bulletin

 

[Atlantic]

No No do not Pink ring!

 

[Atlantic]

Chido in the SWIO is taking aim at Madagascar right now;

 

[Atlantic]

Chido is now a Tropical Cyclone on the SWIO scale! Current ATCF has Chido as a 95kt (110 mph) storm. JTWC expects a 110kt (125 mph) peak, but I think its safe to say that Chido will likely outperform this forecast as well.

 

[Atlantic]

The SWIO has been overperforming nicely for the 2024-25 season so far and soon (when Chido becomes a major cyclone, the 23rd major cyclone globally this year) will have a second major cyclone.

The 2022-23 (Not counting Darian, which came from the Australian Region), 2023-24 (First SWIO major storm was Fabien in May, AFTER the season had ended already) did not have a single major storm from its own basin by the end of December.

The last time the SWIO produced two majors by the end of December that didn't come from the Australian Region according to IBTRACS was the 2019-20 season which featured Ambali and Belna.

 

[Atlantic]

Chido is looking to take a direct aim at a duo group of islands circled in red. This Island will likely sustain a direct landfall from rapidly intensifying Chido as soon as about 30 mins or less. If anyone lives there on those islands, preparations should be rushed to completion now.