2/15/25 SE Severe Threat

[Clancy]

Hey everyone, I have just started to pay attention to the possibility of severe weather tonight here in Alabama. I live in a mobile home in Dallas County...should I consider staying somewhere else tonight? Yesterday, the risk was a 2 our of 5 and today it ramped up to a 3 out of 5. Is there anything that will lessen the possibility of tornados this evening?

I would strongly recommend relocating for the night if you can. If you've got any family/friends with foundation-built homes nearby, or a community storm shelter, consider those options as they are available to you. If you don't have accomodations that you can stay for the whole night in, make sure you have multiple ways to receive warnings, and be prepared to seek out a safe shelter nearby. You can use this website made by the lovely Dr. Craig Ceecee to find local shelters if you're not familiar with the ones near you.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[wx_guy]

Latest Storm-NET --> 45%-50% of tornado within 3 hours and 15-20% chance of significant tornadoes in the Memphis-Oxford area of Mississippi/Arkansas/Tennessee.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Newest Hrrr run is very bullish about prefrontal supercells in West Mississippi later this evening but it's a short window of time for them to be isolated Before congealing into the line.

 

[JPWX]

As I stated back on Tuesday about adding 3 more degrees to today's high and hitting 75..... Well, that has indeed verified.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Convection starting to initiate southwest of Memphis it looks like.

 

[Clancy]

Some interesting-looking activity in southern MS. Subpar wind fields and what looks to be a bit of a cap is preventing this stuff from doing much, but in different conditions I could see these little showers being much more problematic. Areas near Memphis still look to be the area to watch.

 

[JPWX]

Newest Hrrr run is very bullish about prefrontal supercells in West Mississippi later this evening but it's a short window of time for them to be isolated Before congealing into the line.

I did notice that and that the HRRR has supercells with little hooks literally in my backyard by 7pm

 

[cheestaysfly]

The sun is peeking out behind the clouds here in Florence (NWAL)

 

[MMWX]

Tangentially related, but we have a flash flood emergency in SW Virginia

 

[warneagle]

Tangentially related, but we have a flash flood emergency in Kentucky.

and in southwest Virginia

 

[JPWX]

I'm only seeing one FFE and that's for SW Virginia. I'm not seeing one for Kentucky on RadarScope nor GR.

 

[Ledian]

72 here, and sun was all the way out for a little bit...fortunately, a small shower just to my west has brought clouds back. Sadly, the cover won't last as long as i'm hoping

 

[MMWX]

I'm only seeing one FFE and that's for SW Virginia. I'm not seeing one for Kentucky on RadarScope nor GR.

Apologies. It's only in SW Virginia

 

[JPWX]

Apologies. It's only in SW Virginia

No worries my friend

 

[Richardjacks]

It's probably going to start in northern Louisiana and then spread north and east from there.

 

[Ledian]

There's the first Special Weather Statements of the day...

 

[AJS]

There's the first Special Weather Statements of the day...

a lot more to come i’m afraid.

 

[cyelle21]

I would strongly recommend relocating for the night if you can. If you've got any family/friends with foundation-built homes nearby, or a community storm shelter, consider those options as they are available to you. If you don't have accomodations that you can stay for the whole night in, make sure you have multiple ways to receive warnings, and be prepared to seek out a safe shelter nearby. You can use this website made by the lovely Dr. Craig Ceecee to find local shelters if you're not familiar with the ones near you.

Thanks for replying...I have a neighbor a half mile down the road that has offered me shelter if/when the weather gets bad.

 

[TornadoFan]

Tornado watch issued. 60/30 probs.