AJS
Member
I think we see a moderate tomorrow.
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2/15/25 SE Severe Threat
- Thread starter Jason Mills
- Start date
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- severe weather
CSU favors ArkLaMiss. CIPS likes MS/AL. HRRR and both WRFs are showing concerning solutions, with a potent QLCS damaging wind/tornado risk. NAM 3km shows the reasonable floor, courtesy of le wedge. Will have to watch for rogue storms over ArkLaMiss into western AL. East of BHM, classic QLCS tornado setup. Agree with SPC moving that 5% eastward, and wouldn't be surprised if it moved further by tomorrow morning (props to good discos by Bentley and Leitman). Bottom line - everyone from Shreveport to Atlanta should be on their toes.
Cyclonic Paracosm
Member
damn, fr tho Bentley is goated lol
Awesome write up Clancy.
WRF run has my attention. WRF models are usually fairly accurate.
Ledian
Member
Forecast rainfall here is down from 2-3 inches to one and a half at the most. That's sort of a positive
Not particularly fond of the higher helicity values over Bolivar County. Anything running through there or Washington usually ends up hitting here
Not particularly fond of the higher helicity values over Bolivar County. Anything running through there or Washington usually ends up hitting here
18Z suites: While not huge changes, both NAM and HRRR trended towards a more aggressive depiction of their respective warm sectors, and, while still well behind the HRRR, NAM is starting to come more in line with what the HRRR is depicting with regard to the northeastward progression of the WF. Most everyone in the chasing world is honing in on the ArkLaMiss, sensibly so, I think that's where any daylight supercells will end up, but a secondary risk could come from anything that's coming off the GOM near the Mobile/Panhandle region, especially as the LLJ begins to amplify over the course of the late evening. Whether anything actually develops in that region is a question mark, but elevated 3CAPE and intensifying SRH could contribute to the development of potentially potent, tornado-capable storms. Afternoon SPC D2 also remarked on this. If storms developed and sustained themselves in this sector, as they moved northeastward, they may merge with the advancing QLCS and possibly enhance tornado potential across parts of central and eastern AL into parts of west-central GA.
Cyclonic Paracosm
Member
00z hrrr shall be fun
21z RAP has a secondary surge of moisture in south Alabama as the line moves through. Wondering if we are going to see some changes moving into the 24 hour range, like Wednesdays event.
I'm wondering if we are overlooking the deeping of this low pressure system as it moves northeast. If it starts dropping a bit sooner and deeper than forecast that should increase instability values.
I'm wondering if we are overlooking the deeping of this low pressure system as it moves northeast. If it starts dropping a bit sooner and deeper than forecast that should increase instability values.
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I'm not too impressed after looking at the 00z hrrr for significant tornado potential, this just looks like a squall line with nightmare nocturnal spins ups.
"Bad" setup for chasers? Yes. Still a potent, QLCS tornado risk for everyone else? Also yes. Sounding from NE MS. WS and wind fields look on par to 18Z. UH tracks (so far, run not complete) actually more impressive.
Nightmare time for news stations. I hate events like this where it's tons of spin ups with the super high shear. No long trackers or violent ones (probably). But lots of damaging ones that come and go.
Here in GA the deadliest events are QLCS setups, with damaging winds causing trees to fall on houses and cars, and spin-up tornadoes catching folks off-guard and unsheltered.
I hope the guys in oxford Mississippi have a plan, this should hit there around the end of the ole miss/miss state basketball game.
Kds86z
Member
I don’t expect much tomorrow but ya just never know. Been following tornadoes 25 years, I’ve seen it All happen.
WRFs and NAM/HRRR 0Z suite UH tracks. WRFs not quite done yet, but you can get the picture. QLCS tornado threat is clear, alongside widespread damaging winds. Most of the models like parts of the ArkLaMiss and western TN for convection in the late afternoon into evening, then favoring much of AL for a classic QLCS situation as the night progresses. 3 of 4 CAMs have what looks to be some possible semi-discrete activity across parts of AL overnight, but not confident in that outcome. To varying degrees, all of them maintain at least a narrow tongue of weak instability into NE AL and parts of GA - exactly how that actually materializes tomorrow night is a question mark. At a minimum, we will have a pretty gnarly QLCS with embedded tornadoes across parts of MS, AL and perhaps into GA. What seems less apparent is if there is any discrete OWS development, most likely across MS, and whether severe convection will be sustained into GA. In any case, folks should be prepared for severe weather and check the batteries in their weather radios. I could very much foresee much of this event being quiet during the daytime, before delivering a punishing amount of damaging wind and spin-ups well after dark. Can never be sure with weather, and better to be safe than sorry, especially with nighttime setups.
Its going to be a absolute mess of spin ups and damaging winds at least imo lol.
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I'm finding out people need a lesson in geography again.
North AL: 5% tornado risk from SPC. I included this in the text to a person who lives in Athens, AL (North AL)
Person: What's the tornado probability for Athens?
Me: insert facepalm
It literally shocks me how many in the general public has no idea where they live or what county they live in
North AL: 5% tornado risk from SPC. I included this in the text to a person who lives in Athens, AL (North AL)
Person: What's the tornado probability for Athens?
Me: insert facepalm
It literally shocks me how many in the general public has no idea where they live or what county they live in
Kds86z
Member
Ooof
Kds86z
Member
Like dec outbreak?
Unfortunately a lot of people just don't seem to know where they are on a map. I've been a geography whizz since childhood, so it's something I struggle to understand, but I think it's still important to take time to get those people the information they need. Learning their county seems to be the most helpful thing, and thankfully both NWS offices and a lot of broadcast mets will reiterate that prior to severe events.