Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI...FAR SOUTHWEST
TENNESSEE...AND WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA....
...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is expected from East Texas into much of the
Southeast and parts of the Mid-South on Saturday. Scattered to
numerous damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary
threats. Storms are expected from late afternoon through the
overnight hours.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will traverse from the Southwest Saturday morning
to the Mid-Mississippi Valley by 12Z Sunday. As this trough becomes
negatively tilted after 00Z, the surface low will rapidly deepen by
10+ mb as it moves from central Arkansas to northeast Ohio. A cold
front will extend southwest from this surface low and sharpen
through the evening before advancing east during the late evening
and into the overnight hours.
...Mid-South and Southeast...
An expansive region of strengthening low-level flow will advance a
broad warm sector northward across the Gulf Coast states Saturday
morning. North of this warm front within a 50 knot low-level jet,
elevated thunderstorms are expected. Weak instability and shear
should result in mostly sub-severe storms, but isolated large hail
may be possible. Expect persistent thunderstorm activity along the
diffuse cold front from far East Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley
through the morning to early afternoon with mostly sub-severe
storms. However, richer theta-e will interact with the frontal zone
by mid-to-late afternoon which should result in deeper, more robust
updrafts. In addition, stronger mid-level flow will start to
overspread the warm sector, promoting stronger deep-layer shear.
Supercells are anticipated from southeast Arkansas to southwest
Tennessee by this time with a threat for all severe weather hazards
including the potential for a few strong (EF2+) tornadoes. However,
this window of more discrete storm mode will likely be fairly
limited as the cold front starts to surge east around 00Z and a
squall line develops. The environment ahead of this squall line will
remain favorable for severe wind gusts and QLCS tornadoes through
the evening. Eventually this squall line will encounter weaker
instability across central/eastern Tennessee and Alabama and the
severe weather threat will likely start to wane.
One exception may be across far southeast Mississippi, southern
Alabama, and into the Florida Panhandle. After 06Z, some influence
of the approaching mid-level vorticity maximum could result in more
robust convection across this region where greater instability will
remain. The low-level jet is also forecast to strengthen across the
region during this timeframe with STP values peaking perhaps around
2 to 3. 12Z CAM guidance suggests the potential for some pre-frontal
development late in the period, but they are not overly strong at
this time. If more robust pre-frontal storms become likely, in
addition to the QLCS threat associated with the squall line, greater
tornado probabilities could be needed across this area.
..Bentley.. 02/14/2025
