2/15/25 SE Severe Threat

HRRR: QLCS + discrete convection in the OWS. Expansive field of ample instability in the presence of intense SRH.
NAM: Relatively tame QLCS. Snooze fest in the WS. Constrained warm sector, limiting discrete development.

I think something in between these two (given that long-range HRRR sometimes overdoes things) is most likely, but globals have tended towards the vibes of the HRRR synoptically-speaking. I still have questions about eastern AL and GA, but definitely a setup that everyone should keep on their toes for.
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The Nino said:
very late to the game on this one but are we going to have any winter severe weather voodoo with this system? Feel like things always overperform in the winter, but I am also an idiot lol
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Underestimating Dixie can lead to over performance lol

Dixie Alley doesn’t play by the “rules” and does what Dixie wants. Ha
 
This event has a pretty low floor. The ceiling is high but everything needs to go right for it to happen based on what I’ve seen - Trey and the NAM saying what they’re saying. Not impossible for things to go crazy obviously but I think people should hit the breaks a bit on calling this a strong moderate risk. Also, I’ve noticed the HRRR really seems to be bullish on events sometimes, especially in the winter.

Overall I expect this to end up being similar to Wednesday, maybe even a little less intense. I’m no meteorologist though.
 
slenker said:
This event has a pretty low floor. The ceiling is high but everything needs to go right for it to happen based on what I’ve seen - Trey and the NAM saying what they’re saying. Not impossible for things to go crazy obviously but I think people should hit the breaks a bit on calling this a strong moderate risk. Also, I’ve noticed the HRRR really seems to be bullish on events sometimes, especially in the winter.

Overall I expect this to end up being similar to Wednesday, maybe even a little less intense. I’m no meteorologist though.
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Exactly. well said. My expectations are quite low for now
 
slenker said:
This event has a pretty low floor. The ceiling is high but everything needs to go right for it to happen based on what I’ve seen - Trey and the NAM saying what they’re saying. Not impossible for things to go crazy obviously but I think people should hit the breaks a bit on calling this a strong moderate risk. Also, I’ve noticed the HRRR really seems to be bullish on events sometimes, especially in the winter.

Overall I expect this to end up being similar to Wednesday, maybe even a little less intense. I’m no meteorologist though.
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Given the synoptics of this setup, I reckon it'd be unwise to underestimate it, even though there are definitely confounds. Unlike the last setup, where both instability and helicity were relatively confined to the Gulf Coast, we have substantial overlap of instability and impressive wind fields forecast over a fairly large area, and fairly far inland. The situation forcing-wise is fairly conducive to discrete activity, especially across MS, ahead of a QLCS, versus the discrete activity that quickly grew upscale and messy with yesterday's event and initially struggled. Gut instinct is that there will almost certainly be QLCS tornadoes, and anything developing out in front, while not a guarantee, will have strong tornado potential.
 
All models have now trended overnight towards the more amplified trough solution, with the speed max moving just to the NW of the MO/AR border around 00z. There has also been a trend towards a stronger LLJ which is in a much more favorable direction for enhancing low-level wind shear. As such, almost every forecast sounding on most models from about 21z seems to suggest hodographs quite supportive of EF2-EF3+ tornadoes.

I think the biggest, if only, limit now from a notable event are the thermodynamics/lapse rates, as many on here and elsewhere online have mentioned. Will have to watch how things trend wrt that.
 
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