2/15/25 SE Severe Threat

TornadoFan17 said:
New D3 outlook


Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is expected from East Texas into much of the
Southeast and parts of the Mid-South on Saturday. Scattered to
numerous damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary
threats. Storms are expected from late afternoon through the
evening.

...Synopsis...
A potent upper-level trough initially within the Four Corners will
make quick progress through the Southern Plains and into the lower
Mississippi Valley on Saturday. A surface low in the southern Plains
will track into the Mid-South and eventually the Ohio Valley, all
the while deepening. A cold front will move through the Southeast
beginning in the late afternoon into Sunday morning. Intense wind
fields are expected with ample low-level and deep-layer shear.

...Southeast...
Precipitation will likely be ongoing within a zone of warm advection
from the Ozarks into the Mid-South vicinity. This activity will have
an impact on the exact extent of northward moisture advection and
destabilization. The deepening surface low should push some of this
activity northward during the day, however. Models are in general
agreement that a fairly broad warm sector will remain precipitation
free during much of the morning and early afternoon. Temperatures
across the warm sector within the mid/upper 70s F appear probable.
One of the main sources of uncertainty will be whether afternoon
convection can develop in the warm sector. The ECMWF continues to
hint at this possibility while the cooler surface temperatures in
the NAM limit destabilization. Storms during the afternoon would
likely be discrete and there would be an increase in the tornado
threat, some of which could be strong. By the late afternoon into
the evening, there is high confidence in the cold front beginning to
surge south and east. This will coincide with an intensification of
the low-level jet. Strong to significant wind gusts would be
possible as would QLCS tornadoes. With northward and eastward
extent, buoyancy should lessen. However, the 50-65 kt low-level jet
would promote a risk of damaging surface gusts even with more
muted/shallow convection.

...East Texas/Sabine Valley...
A Pacific front will be draped across the region, south of the
parent surface low. Uncertainty in storm development in this area is
slightly higher than farther east. Strong shear across this boundary
would support organized storms, most likely supercellular initially.
Damaging winds and tornadoes would be possible. Given the closer
proximity to steeper mid-level lapse rates, large hail could also
occur. With time and increased mid-level ascent, activity would
likely congeal into a line later in the afternoon.

..Wendt.. 02/13/2025
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I swear I’m not even trying to say this stuff on purpose, but that forecast outlook just reminds me so much of the Rolling Fork Tornado Outbreak. Similar areas too are under the gun.
 
Me and a friend from work were talking this threat Saturday will be during the historic Alabama and Auburn basketball game at 3. Lol a busy day for Alabama people
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Me and a friend from work were talking this threat Saturday will be during the historic Alabama and Auburn basketball game at 3. Lol a busy day for Alabama people
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Oh, that's not good. No one watching the game is going to pay attention to the weather. Local mets need to start getting it in people's minds now to keep their head on a swivel Saturday. Most Alabamians are out of practice because it's been a while since we've had a substantial, widespread tornado threat.
 
MichelleH said:
Oh, that's not good. No one watching the game is going to pay attention to the weather. Local mets need to start getting it in people's minds now to keep their head on a swivel Saturday. Most Alabamians are out of practice because it's been a while since we've had a substantial, widespread tornado threat.
[/QUOTE

I agree, it's the first ever #1 vs #2 in any sport for a Alabama vs Auburn matchup. Tuscaloosa is going to be jam packed.
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SREF, NAM are not impressed by this setup, but I'm not sure I'm buying what they're selling, and SPC doesn't think so either. CIPS and CSU probs remain very robust.
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In agreeing with others that the CSU probs being this high are very concerning... likely picking up on a pattern which is perhaps more favourable than it seems immediately.

1739460247346.png

Still keeping a close eye on the models and to be honest feels slightly difficult to gauge accurately the magnitude of the setup currently. Seems to be split between a trough ejection which is quite low amplitude (GFS, NAM) and one where the trough is more amplified, with a consolidated vorticity maximum that digs more East - thus bringing a strong surface low and a stronger LLJ which is more S'erly than SW. That is the kind of scenario I would imagine bringing a more major tornado threat. Was more of a UKMET and ECM deal this morning but recently the ICON has trended that way and hints of it in the latest NAM too. Will be interesting to see how things develop through the next couple days. Some of the biggest setups of the last few years started either very uncertain or looking rather unimpressive at this range...
 
UK_EF4 said:
In agreeing with others that the CSU probs being this high are very concerning... likely picking up on a pattern which is perhaps more favourable than it seems immediately.

View attachment 33714

Still keeping a close eye on the models and to be honest feels slightly difficult to gauge accurately the magnitude of the setup currently. Seems to be split between a trough ejection which is quite low amplitude (GFS, NAM) and one where the trough is more amplified, with a consolidated vorticity maximum that digs more East - thus bringing a strong surface low and a stronger LLJ which is more S'erly than SW. That is the kind of scenario I would imagine bringing a more major tornado threat. Was more of a UKMET and ECM deal this morning but recently the ICON has trended that way and hints of it in the latest NAM too. Will be interesting to see how things develop through the next couple days. Some of the biggest setups of the last few years started either very uncertain or looking rather unimpressive at this range...
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grand point, 3/24 looked so money maker 2 days out and Dec 28th looked good but not great till about D2 when it blew up
 
Some smaller-scale differences between models - even though NAM and GFS have a similar trough evolution (they're also 3-6 hours apart on the speed of things), on the GFS we see much more aggressive helicity. Likewise, the GFS (and Euro, for that matter) have more expansive warm sectors compared to the NAM's more muted one. My main question mark concerns instability, which could be quite limited, especially eastward, since this event looks to start late in the evening even for much of Alabama. At the same time, a growing LLJ may facilitate moisture return and, of course, enhance wind fields, especially for boundary-riders. The low, which will be dropping in pressure as it moves NE overnight, owing to more favorable forcing, could help compensate for even fairly limited instability. For the ATL metro, it's just a matter of the wedge. In any case, any time you have a Memphis low for an overnight tornado setup, it's best to be careful and not underestimate.
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I'm still gonna keep my guard on this and not buy stuff from the nam and whatnot till at least D2, maybe D3 if we lucky, cuz I feel the ai models have a much better grasp rn, cwips or whatever its called has been very consistent, which is alr a red flag and others have a similar output.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
No sir, it's going to make a hard stop at the Georgia state line ;)
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Man, it feels like that sometimes. Either the QLCS hits the state line, smells Georgia air, chokes and dies, or we have like 5 supercells steamroll from MS all the way to Athens, no in betweens.
 
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