March 1st-3rd 2023?
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2/15/25 SE Severe Threat
- Thread starter Jason Mills
- Start date
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- severe weather
Can't remember what CIPS probs looked like then, but that was a significantly different synoptic setup compared to this one. Ended up being a sleeper down here because dynamic support was lifting away at that point. However, there were some impressive STP values that day.
Yeah that day before had HRRR values of like 10+ lol and then monster supercells in Alabama. But the cap didn't break and those couldn't form thankfully lol
Justin Hindman
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I think Saturday I will be breaking out the old equipment and hitting the road for a good chase.
AJS
Member
Yeah. Saturday will definitely need to be monitored as it definitely has high ceiling potential.
AJS
Member
Praying this doesn’t become our first major outbreak of the year.
Cyclonic Paracosm
Member
yup
Cyclonic Paracosm
Member
I will say, this def looks better than Dec 28th did at this range, Dec 28th was money maker until D2 then it went ballistic
O I see Johnny Parker's house in that 30% SIG hatch off the CSU-MLP. Joy!
Cyclonic Paracosm
Member
hrrr is uhm
AJS
Member
You need to move out of Smithville I swear Monroe County is a tornado magnet.
AJS
Member
100% agreed. So early out and there are already signs that this isn’t gonna be a potential outbreak to shrug our shoulders at.
Id like to see this low pressure a bit more condensed, it's so elongated that the surface winds are not backed a lot in the areas that'll be the prime risk zone. Of course things will likely change, but just my observation from the 18z gfs.
I still have lots of questions about this event. Not that there will be severe weather, but questions that'll determine the magnitude of the event. Has anybody checked the latest similar analog for this event? Any recent events that pop up?
I haven't, but my temperature difference between Saturday/Sunday signals a significant outbreak. Going from 70 Saturday to 41 Sunday. Near 30 degree difference. You can probably add 5 degrees to that high on Saturday which would be around 75.
- Thread starter
- #56
Jason Mills
Member
18z Euro shows mid 70s all the way to the MS/TN line at 0z Sunday.
Cyclonic Paracosm
Member
and prefrontals
Back the surface winds anymore than what is shown, and you will be advecting from Georgia instead of the Gulf. Due south is historically classic for this area. This isn't Oklahoma. Surface winds too backed here, and we're not getting quality moisture north... and SSE is about as much as you can get away with on the synoptic scale. The background SRH values of 400+ m2/s2 should be telling you that surface winds are plenty backed enough.
You're posting in the thread for the Saturday threat. You want the Wednesday thread, which is here: https://talkweather.com/threads/severe-threat-wednesday-february-12-2025.2351/
They actually pulled out the day 4 30% risk. 