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Severe WX Severe Weather Thread - 6/15/26 - 6/18/26

Maxis_s said:
Just realized, we have debris fallout from the Effingham tornado being pulled into the circulation of the new Bloomington rotation. Holy smokes.
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Elijah just highlighted this on Ryan Hall’s stream as well. I didn’t realize the Effingham tornado had a debris ejection of this magnitude.

I know we had a false alarm with the MS tornado a few weeks ago, but that usually only happens with high-end, violent tornadoes.
 

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Grand Poo Bah said:
I still think the main window is 7-9, and the storms can easily work through whatever is holding them back and ramp up significantly.
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Grand Poo Bah

Severe WX Post in thread 'Severe Weather Thread - 6/15/26 - 6/18/26'

I don't think any forcing will be able to overcome the ridiculous cap that's in place until the cold front starts to move through and everything pops off all at once. There will likely be an extremely intense window from about 7-9pm before it lines out. Storms could also be shredded by the cap if they move too fast or slow. Gonna be really important to keep an eye on surface heating, and if any cells form ahead of the line they could be extremely significant because that's where the historic parameters are. As of now, no storms look like they're going to be able to take advantage of that.
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May not have gotten my high risk cig 3 (and that was a very silly prediction), but am finally starting to get a few forecasts right the last few weeks! Finally. I came up with that timeframe on my own too, based on the SBCIN situation and timing of the cold front.

Also I think all the rain south of the Columbus cell is potentially cutting off any good inflow. If it can pull away from that Bloomfield cell a bit it might have a better chance. Of course anything can happen in this environment so it may not matter.
 
Kds86z said:
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It's probably going to be a while until we have any idea of what kind of damage this thing produced. It's dark there and it occurred in a very rural and forested area. Could see some incredible tree damage tomorrow.

Maxis_s said:
We might have a very weak tornado on the ground there now. Small CC drop with a weak couplet associated with it
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I did see that. It was only there very briefly though.
 
cincywx said:
The Bloomington cell's current trajectory keeps it south of Cincinnati but any eastward turn is going to bring it uncomfortably close to mby. Would certainly love to see this thing die out sooner rather than later so I can comfortably go to bed.
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I'm really hoping the fact that it has rained nonstop for hours now helps lower the risk in our neck of the woods. But as long as that tornado watch is in effect, the sleep I get tonight will be questionable at best lol
 
buckeye05 said:
Down to one tornado warning. I think we're almost done.
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Be Quiet Cut It Out GIF
 
OHWX97 said:
I'm really hoping the fact that it has rained nonstop for hours now helps lower the risk in our neck of the woods. But as long as that tornado watch is in effect, the sleep I get tonight will be questionable at best lol
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Yeah I feel you there. I'd stay vigilant but things seem to be winding down now.

Back when I lived in Dayton I was up all night during the 2023 outbreak watching the cyclical Robinson/Sullivan cell get closer and closer. Thankfully it fell apart as it got close but that was a loooong nerve wracking night.
 
buckeye05 said:
Down to one tornado warning. I think we're almost done.
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I don’t know if we’re completely out of the woods yet, but it does seem as though CIN may finally be calming things down? That especially seems the case the with the two cells we were watching before, but the newer Terre Haute cell is showing some signs of rotation.
 
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