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Severe WX Severe Weather 4/11 - 4/15

CheeselandSkies said:
I don't have a whole lot at this point, tons of model spread. Unfortunately the last chase day of the tour is Sunday. I'll probably chase Monday on my own on the way home, especially if Iowa continues to look good for that day. That's the upside of missing out on the first few days of the tour and driving all day yesterday, is I'll be in my vehicle and can chase rather than spending Monday on a plane.

Tuesday is my mom's birthday (she's turning 75) so I'll be heading home to celebrate with family. Despite the impressive trough structure on the 12Z GFS, the EHI values aren't overwhelming. Haven't had a chance to look in detail as to why that might be.

In-person forecast update before leaving the hotel this morning:

View attachment 52656View attachment 52657
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Say Kevin said hi LOL, enjoy your chases with him! I wish Trey would come on here sometimes
 
Throwing around 5/24/11? I'll hold my rant but a lot of people need to just shut up and stop causing pure mania over what one single l deterministic run says.

You can't gauge what a historic event is until after so why people are even throwing this comparison and the dreaded super Outbreak wording out. I am more than pissed off this year from all the CAMs hype and now people are riding a ICON run because it shows a potent solution.

Also, a super outbreak is not based off the environment. How did 4/3/74 and 4/27 become those levels? The amount of open warm sector supercells that fired. Show me a run of 15 supercells off that dryline and a prefrontal confluence band in a long extent warm sector and then I'll believe those weenies.

I trust Gabe a lot, but that's irresponsible to say and I don't mean to be harsh on anybody but I am getting increasingly fed up with all of this hype. These people will cause trust to go down when a major threat actually takes place. The crowd that cries wolf. While Tuesday has a decent ceiling if to maintain itself, it is too early to call on the potential for a major outbreak. They don't learn.
 
Anyone who uses the term super-outbreak outside of 24-36 hours from an event needs to evaluate their wording. I'm so over every other system being compared to 1974 or 2011. I can't begin to express how much damage it does to the public's perception of meteorology.
 
andyhb said:
Tuesday looks like it could be one of those days in the Plains if the current idea with the trough ejection holds, that's what I'll say for now.
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Quite a shift in the 12z guidance away from this high end solution with a messy/positively tilted trough ejection and poor dryline orientation.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Also, a super outbreak is not based off the environment. How did 4/3/74 and 4/27 become those levels? The amount of open warm sector supercells that fired. Show me a run of 15 supercells off that dryline and a prefrontal confluence band in a long extent warm sector and then I'll believe those weenies.
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This is also a good point. We have yet to see a super outbreak in the Plains that is well-documented enough for us to be sure it really was a super outbreak. It's definitely possible to happen, but the setup required for it might have to be supremely upper-echelon and unlike something we have seen before in the era of satellite imagery and whatnot. None of that applies to this system right now, so it isn't even worth mentioning this far out. 5/24/11 wasn't even close to a super outbreak and that was a very high-end plains setup. There's something about tornado outbreaks further to the east that makes it easier for a super outbreak to occur, at least statistically speaking based on an admittedly small sample size and how our climate currently is.

Some strong tornadoes? Sure. Possibility of a tornado outbreak? Sure, but you're getting into dangerous waters there already because we're still >120 hours out. Super outbreak? That's misleading the general public and enhances public distrust of meteorologists when it inevitably fails to come to fruition.
 
Ozonelayer said:
Sorry, accidentally deleted my comment. I was asking if the 12z solution could be an outlier
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You gotta imagine confidence rises with each run as we get closer to the event. The closer we are, the less likely it is to reverse. I also can't think of a single system in the last year or two where things trended down this close to the event and then trended back up. I'd say that while not impossible, it's unlikely.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
You gotta imagine confidence rises with each run as we get closer to the event. The closer we are, the less likely it is to reverse. I also can't think of a single system in the last year or two where things trended down this close to the event and then trended back up. I'd say that while not impossible, it's unlikely.
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I'm fairly sure 3/14-15 had some marginal downtrends across models in the D3-4 range, but it upticked again afterwards, IIRC. That's the last one I can remember.
 
Cyclonic Paracosm said:
the fact that tuesday could go 30 per that discussion is def noteworthy
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"An upgrade will be possible across parts of the threat area, once confidence increases on the timing of the ejecting trough." not looking good at all. it is a definite possibility, dew temps are about 66 degrees up here in northern illinois via the 12z gfs run, and cape almost up to 1500 j/kg.
 
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