Severe WX Severe Risk 2/23-2/24 (1 Viewer)

JayF

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@WesL Was in the area of Dodge City when that storm came through. He didn't see anything. If anything it was before it passed over I65. BMX had a report of Trees down on I65 North Bound. @WesL Said he didn't see it. More will be visible tomorrow.
 
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If funds and manpower for such were unlimited, I'd love to see aerial surveys of the three/four big storms of the day; since they cycled up and down so much, I'm sure we had some brief weak touchdowns in unpopulated woods that we'll never know about.
 

JayF

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It has been canceled for all Alabama Counties. Still always remain #weatheraware.
 
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Still gonna watch the frontal line in MS, poor instability should keep it from getting significant but thunder and rain still to come at least. I don't like to stop watching an event til the front's passed.
 
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Can't really see much at all in the video due to trees, heavy rain, and poor contrast, but here's the wall cloud and the start of the inflow wind as it passed by, from the first AL tornado warned cell of the day. From grandparents' carport.
 
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Hearing thunder here in Walker in that little batch ahead of the frontal line. Velocity shows nothing really going on but it's still amazing there's more thunder after going through so much rain earlier.
 
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Seems to actually be a good bit of SRH remaining, but yeah, without instability it's probably not going to go too far. That said, it's the only place where all the parameters are still at least very marginally present so if things are going to happen anywhere it'd prolly be there.
 
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A tornado reportedly touched down in Coosa county a few hours ago, there were apparently warnings earlier and at least one small TDS from what I've read. That's pretty impressive being that far south that late.
 

KoD

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I am curious as to everyone's thoughts on the forecast/moderate risk verification.
I think it was a tough forecast, and given some of the models were showing more discrete activity I believe that SPC made the right call on moderate risk. Whether or not it verified based on the required amount/strength of tornadoes I don't know.
I do wish we had more of a discussion about severe events after they happen though, what went right and what went wrong. That way some of us less wiser folk can learn more about how models match up to the reality of the situation and be more cognizant of potential problems next time around.
 

Mike S

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I think it was a tough forecast, and given some of the models were showing more discrete activity I believe that SPC made the right call on moderate risk. Whether or not it verified based on the required amount/strength of tornadoes I don't know.
I do wish we had more of a discussion about severe events after they happen though, what went right and what went wrong. That way some of us less wiser folk can learn more about how models match up to the reality of the situation and be more cognizant of potential problems next time around.
Maybe you could start a post mordem thread specifically for this event and have that discussion. Hopefully others will chime in. I won't because I'd have nothing to add but if there is enough participation it will be an interesting and educational read.

If it works out then maybe it can become a thing for major weather events here.
 
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I think there's a major tendency to place the highest risk too far N and W in Dixie events. Convection always seems to cut off that part, or it initiates late. Parameters may be maxed there, but that doesn't always translate to maximum storm coverage.

We have a confirmed EF2 already and Columbus will almost certainly be EF2 (or 3) also, so that's multiple significant tornadoes... ENH would've certainly covered it but there have been worse underperformers. That said, much of the MDT barely even saw rain.
 

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