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Severe Weather Threat - June 11th-15th, 2023

KevinH said:
Dixie Alley doing whatever the hell it wants is what’s going on.

You know Dixie doesn’t follow the rules lol
Click to expand...
"Welcome to Dixie Alley, where the rules are made up and the forecasts don't matter!":D
 
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Storm Prediction Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0842 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2023

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the lower Mississippi
Valley and Southeast today into tonight...

* LOCATIONS...
Southern and Central Alabama
Much of Mississippi
Southern and Central Georgia
Northern Louisiana
Southern and Eastern Arkansas

* HAZARDS...
Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
A few intense tornadoes
Scattered large hail, some baseball size

* SUMMARY...
Significant severe thunderstorms capable of producing all severe
hazards, including very large hail, swaths of intense wind
gusts/damage, and tornadoes, are likely across much of the Lower
Mississippi Valley and Southeast states today into tonight.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch
means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms
over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is
issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

&&

..Gleason.. 06/14/2023
 
Ah yes, 3000 mid-morning CAPE on a Deep South tornado day in June.
 
Wasn't expecting this kind of shear.
 
Sun is out and shining hard in west ATL metro, and the heavens were raining down like 30 minutes prior.
 
JUST IN: MD #1035


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1035
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0940 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2023

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 141440Z - 141645Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EASTWARD FROM MISSISSIPPI.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. A COUPLE
TORNADOES ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE. WATCH ISSUANCE IS LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE SMALL CLUSTERS OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN MS THIS MORNING. CONVECTION IS ALSO
BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AL
AHEAD OF THE CLUSTERS IN A LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME. A
STALLED SURFACE FRONT IS DRAPED GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL AL, WITH A NOTABLE GRADIENT IN THE ML/MUCAPE FIELDS
EVIDENT ON LATEST MESOANALYSIS. IMPRESSIVE MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
WESTERLY WINDS WERE NOTED ON AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS, WITH ASSOCIATED
50-60+ KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EASILY SUPPORTING ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ONGOING
CLUSTERS MAY BE SUPERCELLS, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE TO VERY LARGE
HAIL GIVEN THE ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS ALOFT AND PRESENCE OF STEEPENING
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME AN
INCREASING CONCERN AS THE CLUSTERS MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM MS
INTO AL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE VEERED
SOMEWHAT TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY, THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH 0-1 KM SRH
TO SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES WITH ANY SUPERCELLS
THAT CAN BE SUSTAINED. WATCH ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTH/CENTRAL AL TO ADDRESS THE INCREASING SEVERE THREAT
THIS MORNING.

..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 06/14/2023
 
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