Severe WX March 21-23 2022

[warneagle]

And I think we get it with the 1630z update.

Idk, I feel like they'd have to be pretty confident that we're going to get substantial prefrontal discrete supercell development to pull the trigger on a high risk. This setup has enough of a potential failure mode that that level of confidence might not be warranted. That said, if there is discrete prefrontal convection, it probably won't be hard to verify a high risk since it'll be in such a favorable parameter space for significant severe weather.

 

[warneagle]

Flash flooding could also be a serious problem today. There's a large moderate risk area for heavy rainfall too (which partially overlaps with the moderate risk of severe).

 

[brianc33710]

Flash flooding could also be a serious problem today. There's a large moderate risk area for heavy rainfall too (which partially overlaps with the moderate risk of severe).

If you remember 17 & 25 March 2021 heavy/flooding rains worked over the atmosphere to lessen each outbreaks scope & severity to a point. We still had many tornadoes & some strong 1s in Cen AL but both fell short of the High Risks fear from forecasters early each day. This happened again in early May.

 

[Gail]

Storm chasers

My son goes to EMCC in Scooba, and he sent me a video of chasers setting up on campus. He plays football there so they’re practically across the street from his dorm.

 

[warneagle]

12z soundings from LIX and JAN. Impressive low-level shear values, but still firmly capped for now. (sorry for the giant images but uploading them as attachments makes them impossible to read)

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Storm chasers

My son goes to EMCC in Scooba, and he sent me a video of chasers setting up on campus. He plays football there so they’re practically across the street from his dorm.

OT, but was he by chance featured on the Netflix show shot there?

 

[warneagle]

Oh, and here's LCH. Some storms are firing in that area now, but they're messy and disorganized (unsurprising given forcing + no cap).

 

[Gail]

OT, but was he by chance featured on the Netflix show shot there?

He’s just a Freshman. That was shot several years ago. Coach Stephens is still there though. He says he’s no where near as bad as they show made him out to be.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Watch the severe-warned cell NW of Reeves, LA. It's partially embedded in the QLCS, but appears to have unimpeded inflow to a developing couplet.

 

[warneagle]

Watch the severe-warned cell NW of Reeves, LA. It's partially embedded in the QLCS, but appears to have unimpeded inflow to a developing couplet.

And it's TOR warned now. If nothing else that line is going to be packing some strong straight-line winds.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

14Z HRRR implies a potentially couple batches of discrete cells, one near the Mississippi River which (if it verifies) should be getting going shortly, and another forming in far S MS moving NNE up into AL this afternoon.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Thar she blows...

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Edit: Maybe not, it didn't last.

 

[warneagle]

There's a broken line of storms developing between Lake Charles and Lafayette, but it's still poorly-organized at the moment. Not sure if this is a precursor to actual discrete development though.

 

[Gail]

…and we (Mississippi) have a watch until 7 pm. My weather alarm just staring blaring.

 

[warneagle]

Tornado watch is out. 90/60.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Again the rather surprising decision not to use the PDS designation for a tornado watch covering a 15 hatched MDT.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

 

[warneagle]

Again the rather surprising decision not to use the PDS designation for a tornado watch covering a 15 hatched MDT.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

I think 60 is below the threshold probability of EF2+ for PDS? I was surprised too but I understand it given the conditional nature of the sigtor threat.

 

[Justin Hindman Hindy]

I think 60 is below the threshold probability of EF2+ for PDS? I was surprised too but I understand it given the conditional nature of the sigtor threat.

They are unsure if the cells produce or stay elevated, that’s why the didn’t pull the trigger on pds

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Severe thunderstorm warning...

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Edit: TOR came out while I was typing.

 

[Equus]

Sun's out here again, dews increasing quite quickly

Would watch those little cells down near Hattiesburg, broadly rotating in an increasingly favorable environment; if they root and start hooking right it could get real bad real fast down there