Severe WX December 10 & 11, 2021 Severe Threat

[brianc33710]

Absolutely a worst case scenario that none of us wanted to see tonight...

I dont think any of us couldve imagined a March/April severe weather outbreak in mid-December. Given we didnt get as warm in AL & the dynamics arent as crazy things should settle down before getting here. 80 degrees in December sounds wonderful but usually is bad news outside of FL or TX.

 

[172556]

A couple thoughts..

KPAH's hesitation to pull the trigger in TORE phrasing is disturbing.

The reflectivity signature on this storm from that site is unreal. Absolutely textbook. This is horrific.

 

[Equus]

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[locomusic01]

 

[Jpgood97]

Honest question, radar scope hasn’t showed winds of over 142mph (ef3), how can we assume this is higher than ef3

 

[Richardjacks]

Yes. Usually an indication of large hail, but that's not where you find hail.

the debris was probably so concentrated, it caused the 3 body signature

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[barcncpt44]

 

[OHWX97]

This is honestly nauseating.

 

[warneagle]

the debris was probably so concentrated, it caused the 3 body signature

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Have you seen that before? I don't think I've ever seen that.

 

[locomusic01]

Honest question, radar scope hasn’t showed winds of over 142mph (ef3), how can we assume this is higher than ef3

The radar can't actually resolve the tornado itself, particularly not at the lowest levels and smallest scales where the most intense winds occur.

 

[gangstonc]

Honest question, radar scope hasn’t showed winds of over 142mph (ef3), how can we assume this is higher than ef3

You can’t assume anything at this time.

However some of the gtg numbers matchup favorably with very powerful tornadoes

 

[TornadoFan]

Good lord, it's wrapping up even more.

 

[Clancy]

TORE for Benton.

 

[Jpgood97]

You can’t assume anything at this time.

However some of the gtg numbers matchup favorably with very powerful tornadoes

That’s what I was getting at. I see mentions of e f4 and ef5 which seems inappropriate. Definitely could verify, just feel like that verbiage should be used sparingly

 

[warneagle]

I wonder how far this thing is carrying debris. Probably 50+ miles.

 

[TH2002]

Benton about to take a direct hit.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[172556]

Honest question, radar scope hasn’t showed winds of over 142mph (ef3), how can we assume this is higher than ef3

There is no way for the radar to accurately resolve the tornadic winds. AFAIK the best indicator is looking at the differential between two highest adjacent returns that are sampled as opposing directions, gate-to-gate shear. As mentioned previously in the thread, this storm has produced the highest ever known radar sampled shear at 283MPH. I personally caught scans at 277 and 262 earlier around 4000' off ground level.

 

[TH2002]

What is it with PAH and delaying these TORE's until the literal last minute? They had PLENTY of time to issue a TORE for Mayfield and now Benton. There is simply no excuse for this.