Severe WX Severe Threat 17-18 March 2021

[keithGA]

Personally I always go to a shelter on days like tomorrow if a warning is triggered. I have a brick home too but prefer not to risk it on days where strong tornadoes are even mentioned. I grew up in Tuscaloosa and have witnessed first hand the damage a strong tornado can cause to even well built structures.

A purpose-built tornado shelter, or a location such as a school or church designated as a shelter? I have exactly 1 purpose-built shelter within 25 miles of me. Georgia has a severe lack of shelters.

 

[GA Stormchaser]

I like what James Spann says.... if there is one tornado tomorrow, and it comes down your street..... it’s is YOUR April 27.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Jetstream]

I had an underground shelter where we used to live when struck by the April 15th tornado. Since moving have an above ground shelter (Valley Shelter) in the garage. My job today, clean it out.

 

[Brice Wood]

I was lucky and didn’t get hit by any of the major tornadoes (knock on wood) but came very close to the April 27th tornado. My brother actually worked on 15th street which was ground zero and booked it to the shelter in the mall. Where he worked was leveled. He still has some ptsd from coming that close to potentially losing his life.

That’s quite a story to tell, he must be very appreciative he’s able to still be living today

 

[Vols1]

Fred or Richard does just west of Nashville appear to be in a better spot now that the warm front appears to not make it that far.

 

[Kory]

Add in the UKMET into the group that doesn’t agree with the NAM and a weaker LLJ...even prior to 00z. That idea seems to be on an island from the data I’ve looked at.

 

[RollTide18]

Are there any limiting factors to look out for or does it appears to be an all systems go?

 

[Casuarina Head]

At this point everything is about to go into now-casting mode, especially in regard to all the key mesoscale features’ placements.

 

[TornadoFan]

From the SPC: "A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected Wednesday into Wednesday night across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into Alabama. Widespread severe storms capable of producing tornadoes (several of which may be intense), very large hail and intense damaging wind gusts are expected. More than one round of severe storms are possible across parts of Mississippi into Alabama during the afternoon into the overnight hours."

 

[South AL Wx]

SPC maintains the Moderate Risk on the latest Day 2 Outlook, but mentions that an upgrade to a High Risk could be necessary.

 

[WhirlingWx]

^ to add a little to what was just posted above, here is the more in depth part of the outlook

..LOWER MS VALLEY INTO AL/GA

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF INTENSE, SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY ACROSS MS/AL ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONVECTION WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE EASTWARD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AR/LA DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON
AS IT ENCOUNTERS EFFECTIVE SHEAR GREATER THAN 60 KT, MLCAPE AROUND
1500-2500 J/KG AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-8 C/KM. FAST STORM
MOTION, WITH 925-700 MB FLOW GREATER THAN 40 KT WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING GUSTS WITH SOME GUSTS GREATER THAN 65 KT
EXPECTED. LARGE HAIL (SOME GREATER THAN 2 INCH IN DIAMETER,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE AR/MO BORDER INTO NORTHERN LA, SOUTHWEST TN AND
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MS) IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

FURTHER EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST LA INTO MS AND AL A MORE CONCERNING
SCENARIO APPEARS POSSIBLE. MOST FORECAST GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A
ROUND OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN WEAKER ASCENT, DRIVEN BY HEATING AND LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. STRONG 0-3 KM SHEAR NEAR 30-40 KT WILL ALREADY
BE IN PLACE WITH ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS EVIDENT. GIVEN WEAKER
FORCING, THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO REMAIN MORE
DISCRETE AND ANY CELL WILL QUICKLY BECOME A SUPERCELL CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES. AS A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
AROUND 00-03Z, INTENSE SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EASTWARD
ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MS AND INTO AL OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING A SECOND ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF INTENSE
TORNADOES, LARGE HAIL AND INTENSE DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF
MS/AL. IF THESE TRENDS ARE MAINTAINED, AN UPGRADE TO A HIGH RISK
COULD BE NECESSARY WITH THE INITIAL DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AT 06Z
TONIGHT.

 

[Equus]

 

[Fred Gossage]

SPC maintains the Moderate Risk on the latest Day 2 Outlook, but mentions that an upgrade to a High Risk could be necessary.

And specifically on the 06z Day 1 tonight if current trends continue.

 

[MattPetrulli]

View attachment 6985

Wow really large 15%

 

[TornadoFan]

Yikes

 

[Bama Ravens]

That’s a big moderate risk.

 

[Casuarina Head]

That’s a big moderate risk.

It may even end up being too small when all is said and done. I would extend it NE to a line from Paris to Shelbyville, TN.

 

[warneagle]

I'm not surprised they expanded it further southwest. The parameter space in west-central Mississippi tomorrow afternoon is impressive.

 

[cmking64]

Pretty intense wording from SPC with the 1730z update.

 

[bjdrivers]

If an upgrade to high happens, it could include the the Smithville & Hackleburg areas of 2011.