Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/26-3/29, 2020

[warneagle]

MD is up for the area south of the main threat

 

[TornadoFan]

Also one out for the main threat area now.

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 251

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

 

[warneagle]

That's still west of the MDT area

 

[warneagle]

First tornado watch is up down in AR

 

[Kim30]

Is there a chance that the slight risk could be extended further south and east to include more of Alabama and Tennessee?

 

[warneagle]

And away we go. Confirmed tornado near Fontanelle, IA. Barely on the fringes of the marginal risk.

 

[TornadoFan]

Confirmed tornado SW of Des Moines.

 

[warneagle]

Another warning way outside the main threat area.

 

[warneagle]

PDS watch is out

 

[Equus]

90/80. SPC really not backing down

 

[Tennie]

90/80. SPC really not backing down

They must be seeing signs that many of us aren't, or are otherwise confident that ingredients are either in place or will still be able to come into place for at least a significant tornado event.

And remember, it doesn't necessarily have to be a big outbreak with multiple dangerous tornadoes. If there's only a single tornado today, but it causes significant damage and casualties, that's all it takes for it to become a significant event. Just look at 3/2-3/3/20 for a recent example of this.

 

[Bama Ravens]

Tornado warned storm just west of Pittsburgh, PA. That's in the marginal risk area.

 

[xJownage]

This seems more of an "if a cell hits the right area" type of day where we could easily see one supercell drop monsters or just as easily see a puff of smoke. If the right storm gets going though, you've already got mid-upper 60s dews reported throughout central IL and there's every possibility that could continue. I'm thinking they might move things a little bit south, the warm front really hasn't penetrated further north and the rain shield out there earlier doesn't seem to favor serious instability.

 

[ghost]

That storm just to the NW of Indianapolis has an ominous look on radar. Any rotation in that?

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

PDS watch is out

Wonder they fixing throw high risk in there next update shortly with them going pds watch

 

[TornadoFan]

Nope, no high risk now. Latest update just came out.

 

[Equus]

Moderate stays. Too much uncertainty on cloud cover, moisture extent, and exact location of highest risk corridor. Probably a good call not going high.

 

[xJownage]

That storm just to the NW of Indianapolis has an ominous look on radar. Any rotation in that?

It's actually two cells that have halfway merged. The leading cell has some decent rotation aloft but nothing surface level.

 

[Kory]

First red flag that this system was struggling with that messy complex this morning. Looks like a lot of junk convection still.

 

[bwalk]

Indiana is more active than Illinois but limited to hail.

Illinois predictions underperforming so far. 14z HRR was showing initiation not happening until 22z. Maybe Illinois goes more severe later.

Or not.