Severe Weather Threat November 1-4

[Kds86z]

Severe weather returns right as November kicks off. Tomorrow could feature some supercells and tornadoes in the Southwest. Monday could be more significant and has uptrended a bit possibly extending to Tuesday/Wednesday and will monitor to add dates. For Monday guidance shows a little more of a compact Low now over Western Kansas. The influence of a SubTropical Jet will increase the Amplified 500mb Flow. LLJ may crank up after dark.

1230 PM CDT SAT OCT 31
THE LEAD SPEED MAX WILL CROSS SOUTHERN AZ SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NM SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION THE PAST FEW DAYS, PLUS AN EXPANSIVE SWATH OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE, WILL TEND TO LIMIT LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SOURCE REGION. HOWEVER, UNUSUALLY MOIST PROFILES WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST WEAK BUOYANCY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SOUTHERN AZ INTO NM, AND THE BUOYANCY IS UNLIKELY TO BE TIED VERY STRONGLY TO THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. AS SUCH, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BANDS OF CONVECTION TO ACCOMPANY THE EJECTING SPEED MAX SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BOTH ACROSS AZ AND ESPECIALLY NM. WIND PROFILES WILL BE QUITE STRONG WITH LONG HODOGRAPHS AND WEAKLY BUOYANT, MOIST PROFILES, SIMILAR TO COOL SEASON SEVERE EVENTS IN THE SOUTHEAST. WILL EXPAND THE MRGL RISK FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL SEVERE
OUTFLOW GUSTS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES, AND A SLGT RISK UPGRADE IS A POSSIBILITY IN LATER UPDATES ACROSS NM.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

Monday seems to be looking pretty good

 

[Kds86z]

Day 1:

RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING FROM ROSWELL, NM NORTHWARD TO CLOVIS, NM HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 55 TO 65 KNOT RANGE WITH SOME VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR. 0-3 KM STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY IS FORECAST TO REACH THE 250 TO 350 M2/S2 RANGE IN PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO IN THE EARLY TO MID EVENING.THIS WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS THAT FORM WITHIN THE LARGE-SCALE BAND. SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE PARTS OF THE LINE SEGMENT. SEVERE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 70 KNOTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE FASTER-MOVING BOWING STRUCTURES. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE LINE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.

..BROYLES/WEINMAN.. 11/01/2026

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Could be a decently solid QLCS event tonight given very strong low level shear and a well orientated QLCS according to CAMs with good 0-3km line normal shear. Good upgrade and impressive uptrend for the day before. Watch Arizona too beforehand like I mentioned in previous posts


This is not one of those bang average QLCS threats, definitely a chance for a line full of spam here.

 

[Kds86z]

LINEAR STORM MODE AND LIKELY STABLE LOW-LEVELS MAY SOMEWHAT
COUNTERACT THE FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES, BUT THE ANOMALOUSLY MOIST
AND STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT STILL APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF A
SEASONALLY RARE OVERNIGHT TORNADO RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS.

..MOSIER/MOORE.. 11/01/2026

 

[Kds86z]

2% Tornado probs expanded a lot.

 

[Kds86z]

I love the time change quicker outlooks..

Latest DAY 2:

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SECONDARY LOW CENTER DEVELOPING AND INTENSIFYING BENEATH THE MAXIMUM IN HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER MONDAY EVENING. THE MOIST AND SEMI-STRATIFIED AIR MASS, ALONG WITH STRONG ISALLOBARIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH MODEL HODOGRAPHS SHOWING 0-1KM SRH OF 300-500 M2/S2. WHILE CONVECTIVE MODE IS LIKELY TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE LINEAR ARRANGEMENT AS FORCING INCREASES, EMBEDDED SUPERCELLULAR ELEMENTS AND QLCS CIRCULATIONS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST GIVEN THE ROBUST SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. A FEW TORNADOES (SOME POSSIBLY STRONG) AND SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF THE MESO LOW ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER INTO THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

 

[eep]

Kinda get the vibe today and tomorrow are gonna be broken line sort of events.

 

[Kds86z]

Kinda get the vibe today and tomorrow are gonna be broken line sort of events.

Yeah I have seen some talk of an evening squall line supercell event kind of like Nov 2024 in Oklahoma City type of dealio. Not saying it’s a strong likelihood though.

This wording though:

MODEL HODOGRAPHS SHOWING 0-1KM SRH OF 300-500 M2/S2. WHILE CONVECTIVE MODE IS LIKELY TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE LINEAR ARRANGEMENT AS FORCING INCREASES, EMBEDDED SUPERCELLULAR ELEMENTS AND QLCS CIRCULATIONS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST GIVEN THE ROBUST SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. A FEW TORNADOES (SOME POSSIBLY STRONG)

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[JPWX]

I would watch for this Slight Risk for flash flooding to get expanded further south, west, and east.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN INCREASING RISK FOR QLCS CIRCULATIONS AND PERHAPS
LEADING SUPERCELL TORNADOES IS EXPECTED EARLY TO MID EVENING. SEVERE
WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. A WATCH IS LIKELY THIS
EVENING WITH A TORNADO WATCH BEING POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A LINEAR BAND OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION CONTINUES
EASTWARD IN THE VICINITY OF ALBUQUERQUE. STRONG MID-LEVEL ASCENT
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD THIS EVENING AS A POTENT MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH THIS LINEAR BAND. WITH TIME, THIS CONVECTION WILL
ENCOUNTER UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE TERRAIN. THIS
WILL OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH A MARKED INCREASE IN 700 MB FLOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGIONS. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR
THERE TO BE AN INCREASE IN QLCS CIRCULATION AND PERHAPS LEADING
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL BY AROUND 03Z. GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELDS,
EVEN MODEST CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS. A WATCH
IS LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS. SOME CONSIDERATION FOR A TORNADO
WATCH WILL BE GIVEN.

..WENDT/GUYER.. 11/01/2026

 

[eep]

The line east of Las Vegas NM looks like it has a bunch of embedded rotation.

 

[Kds86z]

EASTERN NEW MEXICO
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
TEXAS PANHANDLE

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 815 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...A LINE OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS, POTENTIALLY WITH LIGHTNING
REMAINING SPARSE, SHOULD INTENSIFY ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO
WEST/NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS, AT LEAST ON AN ISOLATED BASIS, ARE EXPECTED, WHILE THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT THE TORNADO RISK MAY INCREASE GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DEEP-LAYER/LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND A MOIST EARLY NOVEMBER AIR MASS.

 

[slenker]

MD displays some nasty curvature in the low levels here with the hodographs, no wonder the max peak intensity here is in the EF2 range. Could be a pretty gnarly night.