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Severe weather all hazards threat for wed 10/21 through Sunday 10/25 2026

The end of this svr stretch in the SW but it won't necessarily be a whimper.

Central NM: soundings in this area deeply intrigue me given nearly upwards of 200 3CAPE. While near-surface shear isn't particularly strong, upper level ventilation could lead to increased tornado production. Terrain interaction could aid MASSIVELY, given the low level stretching and hopefully we can get some extra from @N0mz on that part. Hodographs should enlarge around 03z, and HRRR has been consistently on a strong 0-2km UH track after this time. Would watch very closely. LL instability may still b avaliable with any supercell to use.

SE NM: supercells down here will act differently. Given a saturated PBL + dry slot aloft, combined with relatively small SRI, i expect mini supercells. While LL instability isn't as much as C NM, there will still be plenty of it to use, and combined with enough upper level ventilation, supercells could be efficient down here with producing a tornado or two. The most interesting thing is how hodographs bow out after 00z, hodographs remain compact, small yet supercells could conditionally produce a deviant tornado as surface stability works its way in but nothing major after this time.

And the really bold prediction about tmrw is IF any mini supercell can sustain tomorrow in S NE, a brief tornado isn't ruled out given strong LL instability and upper level ventilation. Issues are 500mb subsidence and warm temps aloft/dry slot. Not many models initiate but REFSm2 and a few of the HRW suite do initiate too. Seriously doubt much happens but I'll put it out there in case.
 
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