2026 Global Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Atlantic]

Also gotta watch the WPAC for more longtracker action, as a powerful WWB sets up by the IDL

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[SouthFLwx]

this is gonna be a bad one for Mexico

 

[Kds86z]

this is gonna be a bad one for Mexico

 

[SouthFLwx]

now clearing out a pinhole eye

 

[slenker]

now clearing out a pinhole eye

Everyone’s eyes are on Isaias, and rightfully so for a mostly US-dominated forum, but this has the look of those types of storms that go straight to C4+ in under 24 hours right now. I think this’ll be a 5.

 

[joshoctober16]

i notice a lot of rapidly intensifying pacific hurricanes with winds of 150+ mph cat 4 or cat 5 happen on October 10-25 that then to do a right turn and then hit land for some reason, along with the fact they don't tend to be very long lived.

examples are (Hurricane Kenna, Hurricane Rick 2009, Hurricane Patricia, Hurricane Willa, Hurricane Otis)

wondering if its going to become one of them.

 

[slenker]

i notice a lot of rapidly intensifying pacific hurricanes with winds of 150+ mph cat 4 or cat 5 happen on October 10-25 that then to do a right turn and then hit land for some reason, along with the fact they don't tend to be very long lived.

examples are (Hurricane Kenna, Hurricane Rick 2009, Hurricane Patricia, Hurricane Willa, Hurricane Otis)

wondering if its going to become one of them.

I made a similar observation earlier this year. It’s usually accompanied by extreme RI as well and located in this confined corridor, and there’s a somewhat apparent correlation with it during El Niño years in particular. John (2024) is another good example in my mind.

 

[slenker]

Oh good lord…

 

[joshoctober16]

I made a similar observation earlier this year. It’s usually accompanied by extreme RI as well and located in this confined corridor, and there’s a somewhat apparent correlation with it during El Niño years in particular. John (2024) is another good example in my mind.

john never reached cat 4 and took a left turn , also that was september. the ones i listed however all were cat4+ and took a right turn and were in october

 

[slenker]

john never reached cat 4 and took a left turn , also that was september. the ones i listed however all were cat4+ and took a right turn and were in october

I’m talking more so about the extreme RI in that region over the right turn, but I forgot it was September not October, so fair enough.

 

[Mike S]

HWRF has Simon curving back out to sea just before it reaches shore.

 

[Atlantic]

HWRF has Simon curving back out to sea just before it reaches shore.

That ain’t a good thing, but it could mean an even stronger storm

 

[Kds86z]

That ain’t a good thing, but it could mean an even stronger storm

about to be a tornadic supercell party... already had a tor warning

 

[akt1985]

The NHC will have their hands full this weekend with both Simon and Isaias.

 

[Mike S]

That ain’t a good thing, but it could mean an even stronger storm

But it wouldn't hit land, especially if it stays south of Baja like the latest run shows.

Most models show a curve, but after landfall and the storm falls apart.

 

[slenker]

That's some cold cloud tops there. There's been multiple attempts at a pinhole eye but it cannot seem to make them stick. Probably only a matter of time at this point.

 

[SouthFLwx]

View attachment 55273
That's some cold cloud tops there. There's been multiple attempts at a pinhole eye but it cannot seem to make them stick. Probably only a matter of time at this point.

I think it's going through some sort of inner core structural changes. Once it has a stable and more mature core, the eye should really clear out.