(Super) El Niño 2026-27

[N0mz]

I figured it would be worth it to have a centralized discussion on the impacts of the seemingly certain very strong +ENSO setting in as we speak and will peak sometime around New Year's this winter. As a DC snow weenie, I'm very excited, but of course it's way too far out to tell. I also don't have any idea which ENSO forecasting products are any good, so I'd like to pick up some pointers on what tools to lean on and to ignore.

 

[KevinH]

Isn't THIS El Niño supposed to be the strongest ever?

 

[JPWX]

I would expect the Deep South and even Gulf Coast to get in on a few significant winter storms upcoming winter

 

[CheeselandSkies]

It's progged to be so strong, Mark Sudduth is calling it "El Hombre."

 

[akt1985]

Watch out for possible EF3 plus tornadoes in Florida this winter during the Super El Niño.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

super ninos have been associated with mor active secondary seasons last one was 2015 and that had a p gnarly sec season with several Ef4s in the Christmas time frame, so def a good idea to watch how our super nino unfolds

 

[akt1985]

Ryan Hall says there is no such thing as a Super El Nino

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

Ryan Hall says there is no such thing as a Super El Nino

lmaoo thats funny

 

[N0mz]

FWIW these are the CPC's projections. I'm not sure if the CPC tends to be conservative or whatever.

 

[N0mz]

The 1877-1878 El Niño, which holds the record at +2.8C according to reanalysis, killed around 50 million worldwide, 3% of the world population at the time, or the equivalent of 250 million today. Although food and water security are much better today, we may not reach 2.8, and the 1877-78 event was possibly aided by other teleconnections; a +2.5C or greater El Niño is a significant humanitarian event.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Also if this El Niño becomes super which looks likely could cause winter overall be warmer most places

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

super ninos have been associated with mor active secondary seasons last one was 2015 and that had a p gnarly sec season with several Ef4s in the Christmas time frame, so def a good idea to watch how our super nino unfolds

Look for a active fall severe season that goes wilh strong Nino s per past

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

The 3.4 region pacific is already setting at 2 degrees above normal in the waters … this is the earliest on records it has hit that , smashing the Nino
Of 1998. This El Niño is not playing around….

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

The 3.4 region pacific is already setting at 2 degrees above normal in the waters … this is the earliest on records it has hit that , smashing the Nino
Of 1998. This El Niño is not playing around….

def not, very strong el nino

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

The 3.4 region pacific is already setting at 2 degrees above normal in the waters … this is the earliest on records it has hit that , smashing the Nino
Of 1998. This El Niño is not playing around….

Where did you see that? We're not there yet (but pretty close) according to tropical tidbits.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Where did you see that? We're not there yet (but pretty close) according to tropical tidbits.
View attachment 54135

Off video watched .. updated yesterday , strong
Already

 

[GXSC]

Whelp, time to get really scared for spring tornado season 2027 being a repeat of 2024 or worse...

 

[N0mz]

Updated ENSO forecast from the CPC issued 7/9/2026. Odds for a super el niño were bumped up considerably.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Updated ENSO forecast from the CPC issued 7/9/2026. Odds for a super el niño were bumped up considerably.
View attachment 54150

It'll be interesting to see how this affects the winter tornado season. I know El Ninos cause tons of wind shear so once these summer ridges move out I could see it getting very active.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

We've officially reached super El Nino temperatures. It's insane how quickly it's escalating.

Also @N0mz if you go to this link and select "copy image address", and then use the "insert image" function "by url" you can have this image in your original post and it'll update in real time. That way anyone who comes into this thread can immediately see the current 3.4 index without having to leave the site.