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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat July 1st - 5th 2026

JayF

JayF

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There is the possibility for severe weather over the next several days. This thread will end on Sunday, the 5th and be saved for historical purposes.
 

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JayF said:
Don't forget ladies, even though i think the ladies have been pretty patient with us fellas.
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Yeah, id say the ladies deserve something for putting up with these threads the last few weeks haha


just before dawn fire GIF
 
KevinH said:
Wait.... aren't all the threads saved for historical purposes @JayF? lol
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Yeah LOL just reminding everyone that 10 years from now, people are going to read this and decide if 1 wow those people are gripy and weird and what is twitter, or 2, those people really knew what they were talking about. if they only knew then what we knew now.
 
JayF said:
Yeah LOL just reminding everyone that 10 years from now, people are going to read this and decide if 1 wow those people are gripy and weird and what is twitter, or 2, those people really knew what they were talking about. if they only knew then what we knew now.
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Some weather archivist will stumble upon one of these threads like the EF debate thread in 20 years, when everything's good with the EF scale, ratings are accurate.... And they're gonna see a bunch of randomers from Ireland, Colorado ans Iowa bickering over a EF4's rating. That's funny to think of. Oh, and also all the arguments on here during a thread too. LOL.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Some weather archivist will stumble upon one of these threads like the EF debate thread in 20 years, when everything's good with the EF scale, ratings are accurate.... And they're gonna see a bunch of randomers from Ireland, Colorado ans Iowa bickering over a EF4's rating. That's funny to think of. Oh, and also all the arguments on here during a thread too. LOL.
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In 20 years, we will not have the EF scale. Instead we will more than likely have the EFM scale LOL.
 
The gripe about today is low level shear and cells in a SW-NE orientation. That is a notorious wildcard for undercut supercells or proper propagating stuff. 4/28/25, 5/18/26, 5/6/24 to a extent. Not saying today has a ceiling like that but this orientation rarely ever works out for tornadoes

Must note I mean this in general, close proximity SW-NE orientation doesn't usually work. A orientation like 3/14/25 worked perfectly fine. That wasn't as extreme
 
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On the latest day 1 it looks like they expanded the 5% hatch for tornadoes and here is discussion.

SEVERE POTENTIAL LATER TODAY WILL FOCUS ON A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED BOUNDARY, WITH A VERY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF IT. RENEWED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, AND AGAIN INTO WISCONSIN. A RIBBON OF MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES, SOME OF IT MCV-ENHANCED, WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND FAST-MOVING LINE SEGMENTS AND POTENTIAL UPSCALE-MCS DEVELOPMENT. LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS IN ADDITION TO WIND, WHICH MAY BECOME MORE PREVALENT OF A HAZARD (60-80+ MPH) AS STORM MERGERS LEAD TO A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE CLUSTERS
DEVELOPING. SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EXIST AS WELL, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY AND/OR INCREASING THIS EVENING AS A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL REINVIGORATES.
 

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Two days of possible severe weather on tap for the Deep South. SPC is monitoring trends for possible SVA issuance later today in the AL/TN/GA region.
1782927559463.png1782927561686.png
Mesoscale Discussion 1417
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Areas affected...Northern Georgia into Northern Alabama and southern
Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 011729Z - 011930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected in the coming hours.
Isolated to perhaps scattered strong/severe wind gusts are expected
as thunderstorm coverage increases within a very unstable
environment. Trends are being monitored for watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery and regional web cams show steady
cumulus development and deepening across the southern Appalachians
in northern GA and southern TN with at least a couple of early
attempts at deep convection noted near Birmingham, AL. Any lingering
inhibition is quickly being removed as temperatures continue to warm
into the low to mid 90s, which will support an increasing
probability for sustained convective initiation within the next 1-2
hours as parcels approach their convective temperatures and
localized orographic ascent along terrain features increases.
Initially isolated convection will eventually grow upscale into
multi-cell clusters as development along outflow boundaries
increases given weak low-level flow within a very buoyant ambient
environment. With time, one or more loosely organized clusters
should emerge and propagate westward given the 25-30 knot 4-5 km
flow aloft sampled by regional VWPs.

The combination of seasonally rich low-level moisture (dewpoints in
the mid 70s and PWATs between 1.75 to 2 inches), steepening
low-level lapse rates, and very high buoyancy (MLCAPE upwards of
3500 J/kg) will promote the development of intense, but localized,
wet downbursts capable of producing strong/severe winds (most likely
45-60 mph). Downburst potential will gradually increase in tandem
with thunderstorm coverage and daytime heating through late
afternoon. Convective trends will be monitored, and watch issuance
may be needed for portions of the region if thunderstorm coverage
becomes sufficiently widespread and/or one or more propagating
clusters emerges.

..Moore/Guyer.. 07/01/2026
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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1417

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
 
Clancy said:
Two days of possible severe weather on tap for the Deep South. SPC is monitoring trends for possible SVA issuance later today in the AL/TN/GA region.
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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1417

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
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SVA #430 now in effect until 9 PM EDT.
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