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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat June 19-29

andyhb said:
Monday could be a very volatile day near the warm front/triple point in ND/MN, especially if the moisture/LLJ hangs back west underneath the stronger flow aloft. One of those crazy parameter space days that actually may have a chance to initiate given the amplitude of the trough.

StormNet notably uptrended in its most recent run.
Click to expand...

I took Monday off initially when it looked like that set up would happen on Sunday. I have to be back at work 4AM Tuesday so hoping I can target not much further west/north than Albert Lea.

Edit: Unfortunately soundings looked capped to hell around there. Verbatim only viable target is near the Canadian border where some NAM soundings pop the "PDS TOR." GFS gives some hope with a little extra 500mb wave coming through s-central MN around 0Z Tuesday. At least by then 12-hour heights are neutral rather than rising across the target area as they are at 0Z Monday (7 PM CDT Sunday).
 
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* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
NORTHERN NEBRASKA
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA

* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL
1100 PM MDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 90 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 3.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP REGIONALLY, WITH LARGE HAIL AND SOME TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. A PROMINENT DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY ALSO UNFOLD INTO THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:


Not to promote or anything but I found this guy on YouTube and I genuinely think he deserves all the support he can get. He doesn't fearmonger and he keeps it real. Somehow only 600 subs, yet I'd say he's better than Ryan and Max. Currently doing coverage right now of our increasing severe threat.
Click to expand...

I don't believe most of the "fearmonger" groups starts off that way. I think it's something more of going from a small you-tuber to a larger you-tuber over a period of time.

Unfortunately, the fearmongering is sometimes the only way for them to grow their channel after it hit its non-fearmongering plateau. I don't think all them do that it with intent to fearmonger, but more so to sustain their business.
 
SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIZABLE HAIL
AND INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES IS PROBABLY
HIGHEST BETWEEN NOW AND 6-7 PM MDT.

 
andyhb said:
Monday could be a very volatile day near the warm front/triple point in ND/MN, especially if the moisture/LLJ hangs back west underneath the stronger flow aloft. One of those crazy parameter space days that actually may have a chance to initiate given the amplitude of the trough.

StormNet notably uptrended in its most recent run.
Click to expand...
Now Hatched on new day 2.

IF SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP AND BE SURFACE-BASED NEAR THE
WARM FRONT, AN ALL-HAZARDS SEVERE RISK IS EVIDENT GIVEN THE VERY
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PARAMETER SPACE. WHILE INITIAL
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING ALONG THE CO
 

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Do not extend this thread past the 29th. Start a new thread when needed.
 
Kds86z said:
Like Enderlin setup aye
Click to expand...
Not to such that extreme, but in a case, yes. This time, a more interesting scenario may occur where storms could potentially transition from elevated and evolve to surface based throughout the day as the volatile environment takes place. I can't fault the SPC for going as low as they have right now. We will see.
 
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