- Thread starter
- #421
Kds86z
Member
Thank you for posting! I did see this but forgot to.
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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat June 19-28
- Thread starter Kds86z
- Start date
CheeselandSkies
Member
(from yearly thread)
14Z HRRR now introduces a nice southeastward-moving supercell with stout UH from Iowa into Green Counties, WI. Might turn out a bit like the "Independence Day Mothership" of 2022 (the chase where I pulled in behind Vince Waelti and Brandon Copic's Radar Omega/Ryan Hall Y'all-wrapped vehicles).
CheeselandSkies
Member
Found the cherry-picked sounding with just enough SRH coupled with that level of 3CAPE to trip a "TOR" hazard.
- Thread starter
- #424
Kds86z
Member
- Thread starter
- #425
Kds86z
Member
Day 2: possible tornado upgrade to come
WITH STORM MOTIONS LIKELY TO BE ALONG-BOUNDARY. THERE REMAINS STRONG SIGNAL THAT A 40-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH FAVORABLE ALONG BOUNDARY STORM MOTIONS WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES, A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY RELATIVE TO THE MORE FAVORABLE CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY/LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS. THE 5% TORNADO AREA WAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD WITH THIS UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT TRENDS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IF MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES OCCURS, HIGHER PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED. FOR NOW, CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE IN SUPERCELLS
DEVELOPING WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
WITH STORM MOTIONS LIKELY TO BE ALONG-BOUNDARY. THERE REMAINS STRONG SIGNAL THAT A 40-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH FAVORABLE ALONG BOUNDARY STORM MOTIONS WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES, A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY RELATIVE TO THE MORE FAVORABLE CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY/LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS. THE 5% TORNADO AREA WAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD WITH THIS UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT TRENDS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IF MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES OCCURS, HIGHER PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED. FOR NOW, CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE IN SUPERCELLS
DEVELOPING WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
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- Thread starter
- #426
Kds86z
Member
joshoctober16
Member
hard to tell what is going on here 
this is at the usa/canada border
this is at the usa/canada border
joshoctober16
Member
getting ready to make a tornado 
- Thread starter
- #429
Kds86z
Member
joshoctober16
Member
somthing we might of not notice but insane anticyclonic rotation to the storm to the top right 
- Thread starter
- #431
Kds86z
Member
joshoctober16
Member
its spiraling a lot here.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
This is old but this is very obvious hail contamination. The pink DBZ lines uo with the sporadic CC and appears to be in line for what would favor a hail signature
- Thread starter
- #434
Kds86z
Member
AT 611 PM MDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR PROCTOR, OR 20
MILES NORTHEAST OF STERLING, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND BASEBALL SIZE HAIL.
SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE C
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- #435
Kds86z
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HUN only found straight line wind damage. They're back out again today checking the Francisco area at the Alabama/Tennessee border. That would have been upstream from the New Market tornadoes. It'll be interesting to see what they surveyors find there.
- Thread starter
- #437
Kds86z
Member
NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTHERN KS/NORTHERN OK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. ELONGATED/CURVED HODOGRAPHS
SUGGEST A THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES WILL EXIST, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN REMAIN AT LEAST SEMI-DISCRETE. AND GIVEN THE
ENHANCED EFFECTIVE SRH NEAR THE BOUNDARY, A STRONG TORNADO APPEARS
POSSIBLE IF A SUPERCELL MODE CAN BE MAINTAINED.
ACROSS SOUTHERN KS/NORTHERN OK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. ELONGATED/CURVED HODOGRAPHS
SUGGEST A THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES WILL EXIST, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN REMAIN AT LEAST SEMI-DISCRETE. AND GIVEN THE
ENHANCED EFFECTIVE SRH NEAR THE BOUNDARY, A STRONG TORNADO APPEARS
POSSIBLE IF A SUPERCELL MODE CAN BE MAINTAINED.
- Thread starter
- #438
Kds86z
Member
Has the 5% hatched taken over for the 10% hatched for the "Strong tornado" mention? I did notice the SPC mentioned "strong tornado may occur." in their most recent write-up. Guessing that must mean the 10% hatched is now more of the mention of "Violent tornadoes, and or multiple strong tornadoes.
- Thread starter
- #440
Kds86z
Member
Not taken over no. Buts it’s the lowest probability.