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Severe WX Severe Weather Thread - 6/15/26 - 6/18/26

jiharris0220 said:
It’s insane really, how just a day and a half ago we were looking at a Palm Sunday redux, but all it took to completely change that solution is a very slight flattening of the jet exit region (the high end scenarios displayed the jet streak curving northeast which put the exit region further north).
This flattening caused the surface low to propagate further south and therefore caused the area of maximum forcing further south.
View attachment 53586View attachment 53588
Had the jet streak kept its orientation that models over a day ago have shown, (left image) the MCS would’ve stayed far more north and allowed for an unaltered warm sector to set in place as far north as Chicago. And yes, a Palm Sunday redux had a legitimate 50/50 shot at verifying, as at one point every cam model displayed long track, extremely intense helicity streaks with some of them spanning three states across.
This really could’ve been an historic and certainly a catastrophic event. Goes to show that even the slightest changes Synoptically can completely change your scenario. Close call honestly with this one, it could’ve been really bad.
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Yeah. We thinned the line hard. Glad this was another red herring from 2026. A very high end ceiling type event.
 
Look, I know it got heated big it’s not really a matter agreeing or disagreeing though. The reality of the situation is the CAMS took a nosedive yesterday, and the event itself followed suit today. How is that even controversial? That’s forecasting, and that’s what happened. It’s just objective reality lol, and if you want to be upset at people pointing out the reality of the situation, that’s on you. It has nothing to do with “bad attitude” or however you want to frame it.
 
buckeye05 said:
Look, I know it got heated big it’s not really a matter agreeing or disagreeing though. The reality of the situation is the CAMS took a nosedive yesterday, and the event itself followed suit today. How is that even controversial? That’s forecasting, and that’s what happened. It’s just objective reality lol, and if you want to be upset at people pointing out the reality of the situation, that’s on you. It has nothing to do with “bad attitude” or however you want to frame it.
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No frustration or hate towards some “bad attitude” here. Except towards emotionally unstable people that flip between “bust” or “historic outbreak” and the storm chasers collectively sharing 2 brain cells.
 
buckeye05 said:
Look, I know it got heated big it’s not really a matter agreeing or disagreeing though. The reality of the situation is the CAMS took a nosedive yesterday, and the event itself followed suit today. How is that even controversial? That’s forecasting, and that’s what happened. It’s just objective reality lol, and if you want to be upset at people pointing out the reality of the situation, that’s on you. It has nothing to do with “bad attitude” or however you want to frame it.
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Don't make this about yourself.
 
Two other storms worth noting right now:

1) the storm to the west near Litchfield, IL is really getting its act together and is in an area that’s largely been untapped today.

2) the velocities are surging on multiple radars right now to the east of Riley, Indiana, but I genuinely don’t know what to make of the radar presentation right now because there’s been some weird s*** going on with that storm over the past couple of scans.IMG_5423.png
 

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