Severe WX Severe Weather Thread - 6/15/26 - 6/18/26

[TornadoFan]

Mosquitos to a light.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Oh to be clear I wasn’t referring to you or your forecasting when I made that comment. Zero cope-casting from your end in relation to this event. But yes, same sentiments here, when the CAMS show a dramatic short term shift, do not just write it off as just an outlier run or runs. We’ve had too many examples to ignore the fact that this usually means something when it happens.

Oh, i understood, but i had that copecasting experience exactly on 3/15. I said " i don't trust the HRRR, typical last minute downtrends" and it ended up g verifying a high stil but not the high octane madness the 00z that night had. And people still end up never learning when this happens. It happened on 4/27/26, it even happened on 5/6/24 to a extent, models got slightly more messier which ended up verifying. When models last minute uptrend they tend to be right more than wrong. Not a situation with a last minute downtrend I can remember that's ended up still performing but my memory may just be short.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Tennie]

Just imagine if these produced. What a bad outbreak this would be.

Let's be glad that the current setup doesn't favor that!

Also, there appears to be an unwarned tornado in progress near Barneveld, Wisconsin, right now.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[buckeye05]

See guys it’s not a bust! There was at least one tornado that caused damage. Checkmate, doubters!

*sarcasm obviously, but people always point out a single outlier tornado during a bust as if it redeems the entire outlook and setup*

 

[TornadoFan]

Mosquitos to a light. View attachment 53565

Tornado down on this storm now.

 

[notsoencrypted]

Let's be glad that the current setup doesn't favor that!

Also, there appears to be an unwarned tornado in progress near Barneveld, Wisconsin, right now.

Yeaaah, I'm keeping a close eye on that thing. I started prepping for moving to shelter when the cell was warned, but they let it expire.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

I would just laugh if this ends up proving us all to look like utter clowns in the next 10 minutes but I highly doubt it

 

[Xyls]

Big tornado on Ryan Hall's stream north of Mattoon. We finally have a big Illinois tornado. Unwarned!

 

[TornadoFan]

Goodness what a structure

 

[Thanksgivingbrown]

Large Tornado on the ground north of Mattoon. People calling a bust eating their words

 

[slenker]

Velocities coming together on the storm W of the downed tor as well... Looks like I'm going to eat major crow here. That cell just got warned.

 

[DanLarsen34]

We’ve got what might be a major tornado that’s happening now on the north side of Mattoon. One of Ryan Hall’s viewers got it on-stream as it touched down.

 

[TornadoFan]

Charleston, IL is gonna cut it close.

 

[jiharris0220]

Large Tornado on the ground north of Mattoon. People calling a bust eating their words

Respectfully, a single tornado regardless if it turns out violent wouldn’t reverse a bust scenario.

 

[Xyls]

PDS tornado warning issued. Depending how this develops this could go tornado emergency as it charges towards Charleston, Illinois.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Can't write it at all. Really can't. Eating crow badly right now just like that, major tornado north side of Mattoon. Forecasting or opinions are useless.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

"guys, it's not over yet, why are we calling this a bust! Weenies"

 

[slenker]

Charleston cell velocities are extreme. Pawnee cell is really ramping up